(AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
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Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 26.68 DK - 27.45
The Bills were, obviously, a total disaster in Week 9 against Jacksonville, mustering almost nothing on offense against one of the league’s worst teams. Allen completed just 66% of his passes and overall it was a disappointing day. But even for the struggles, he’s still among the elite fantasy quarterbacks, ranking third in the league in DraftKings points per game at the position. This time around he’ll face a Jets team that is ranked dead last in the league in defensive DVOA. Even with the struggles last week, I think we go right back to Allen in this one without hesitation.
Opponent MIN
Proj Points FD - 23.09 DK - 23.75
After a couple of down weeks against the Patriots and Ravens in Week 7 and 8, Herbert bounced back in a big way against the Eagles last time around. He completed 84% of his passes (32-38) and threw for 356 yards and two touchdowns in the win. This matchup is a tougher one considering that the Vikings are much better against the pass than the run, but Herbert’s price as dipped some because of the recent “struggles”. I think we are buying him at a value in this game considering his upside and this one has the second-highest total of the slate at 53.
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 21.3 DK - 22.85
With Derrick Henry now on the shelf, Taylor enters Week 10 as active RB1 on the fantasy season. Even though the Colts still aren’t running him out there all of the snaps, he’s seeing plenty of usage in the offense and it coming off a huge Week 9. Indy is huge, -10 home favorites against the Jaguars on Sunday. That’s the sweet spot for running backs in terms of safety and Taylor has been about as good as it gets this season. He’s second in the league in rushing yards and sees just enough work in the passing game to pass muster there. The Jags are a funnel defense, ranking dead last against the pass and 8th agains the rush, but I don’t think that discrepancy is enough to warrant a fade on Taylor.
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 16.48 DK - 17.65
With Chase Edmonds leaving last game early and Kyler Murray already out, James Conner more than carried the load for the Cardinals in Week 9. He got 21 carries and five targets, finishing with 173 total yards and three touchdowns. While I think the receiving yards and trips to pay dirt were outliers, the usage probably isn’t and this kind of opportunity is completely elite in this price tier. I think we can expect him to be a chalk option on the Week 10 main slate of games and for good reason.
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 13.82 DK - 14.78
This pick is assuming Nick Chubb isn’t able to clear Covid protocols and will be out this Sunday. D'Ernest Johnson would be in line for a ton of carries in the Browns’ run-heavy offense. With Kareem Hunt already shelved too they are very thin at the position. In this scenario, Johnson would likely become a very popular cash game option even against a very good New England Patriots defense. We will have to monitor this situation heading into the weekend, but as it stands now it looks like Johnson will be the lead back at very cheap prices.
I think we can go back to Ezekiel Elliott in cash with the Cowboys coming in as big home favorites against the Falcons and their 28th-ranked run defense.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 18.66 DK - 22.41
Last week was a mess for the Packers all around. Between the Aaron Rodgers saga and Jordan Love looking a bit overwhelmed in his first career start, it all went a bit sideways on offense. The defense held them in it against the Chiefs, but the offense just couldn’t do much. Rogers is back this week against the Seahawks and Adams is in a great spot against Seattle. He should, once again, be looking at double-digit targets on Sunday. In eight games, and one with the backup, Adams is still fourth in the league in targets and his three touchdowns on the season are definitely low considering his usage.
Opponent JAX
Proj Points FD - 16.76 DK - 20.59
Over the last three weeks, Pittman ranks fifth overall in yards, first in touchdowns, and 10th in targets. Now, some of that is the ceiling game against the Titans in Week 8. But the Colts have also targeted him a lot over the course of the season as well. And as stated with Taylor, Pittman has the advantage of facing one of the league’s worst pass defenses in the Jags. This is lining up to be another smash spot for the WR1 on the Colts. He also offers something of a hedge against Taylor’s performance.
Opponent WAS
Proj Points FD - 16.91 DK - 20.12
The Bucs could be really banged up in the pass-catching group on Sunday with Antonio Brown trending towards out again, and Chris Godwin now banged up and possibly is sitting as well. Evans had a rough one against the Saints in Week 8 but is now coming off the bye. He has eight or more targets in five of his eight games this season and his eight receiving touchdowns are second in the league behind only Cooper Kupp. We will have to monitor the Tampa Bay injury report heading into this one, but Evans is shaping up to get a lot of looks here.
Opponent DEN
Proj Points FD - 9.07 DK - 11.16
Though the 13 total targets over the last two weeks might not look like all that much, it’s important to take them fully in context. The Eagles haven’t thrown the ball much at all in the last two, opting to run a ton and throwing only 31 total passes. Goedert’s looks represent a whopping 42% target share in that stretch. That’s about as good as you’ll see from any pass catcher and especially a tight end. It stands to reason that Philadelphia won’t be able to play in these run-heavy game scripts and if they need to throw the ball more then Goedert could see a ton looks.
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 8.71 DK - 10.75
Dan Arnold led the Jaguars in targets in Week 7, finishing the game with four catches for 60 yards. Jacksonville comes into this game as underdogs and it stands to reason they will have to take the air again. In his last four games he is 7th among tight ends with 22 targets and has totaled 155 yards. The latter stat won’t overwhelm you, but neither will the price on DraftKings. I think he is still a value play at a weaker position.
Opponent ATL
Proj Points FD - 6.24 DK - 6.24
The Cowboys are coming at a solid price on DraftKings at $3000 and will face off against the Falcons. Atlanta has the 25th ranked offense on the season in DVOA and the Cowboys rank 7th on the defensive side. There’s a chance they get rolling downhill early too and force Matt Ryan and company into some uncomfortable spots.
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