Miami Heat center Bam Adebayo (13) dribbles the ball during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Washington Wizards, Saturday, Jan. 9, 2021, in Washington. (AP Photo/Nick Wass)
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Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 28.08 DK - 30.81
On a smaller slate with three of the five games having a spread of seven points or more blowout potential is high and finding "safety" will be key for cash games. Let's start with the game which has the highest total(220.5) and the closest spread(UTA -1). It starts at the point with Conley who has been terrific in the short term shooting 57% from the field on 30 shots over his last two games while going 10 of 16 from three. I don't see that insane production lasting forever but the price isn't increasing a ton and he should easily get double-digit attempts again in a plus matchup vs. Atlanta who is 22nd in defensive efficiency. Conley is in play in all formats, especially on FanDuel in the low $5K range.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 28.01 DK - 31.5
Despite two underwhelming games to start his career, our system absolutely loves the first overall pick at these prices. The good news is that he is very unlikely to continue to shoot 14% from the field going forward and more good news as he did put up 14 shots in his last game while playing 29 minutes. The 76ers are short-handed so this game should stay relatively close so while the projection may be a little lofty and more geared towards his upside, I do like buying low on a player who could easily be in the $5K-$6K range very soon.
Also Consider: Kyle Lowry(MIA) on FanDuel who is still sub $6K and coming off two very productive games(38 and 40.5 FD points)
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 38.7 DK - 41.71
There are a ton of unknowns going into this slate so I am not going to worry about blowouts at this point of the day as the 1-6 Thunder go on the road to take on the 5-3 Lakers. Even if the Lakers are playing at full strength, they have been average defensively and playing very fast ranking 2nd in pace through the first couple of weeks. This is good news for SGA who has a 28% usage rate and also contributes in the secondary categories(5.1 reb/3.6 ass per game). The price is going up but after two duds to start the season, SGA comes in hot averaging over 40 fantasy points per game in his last five. Lock and load in all formats.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 29.21 DK - 32.32
If the Sixers were at full strength, this would likely be a blowout as the Pistons are downright terrible. The bad news for Philly is that they aren't only missing Ben Simmons, they will now be without Tobias Harris and Danny Green for tonight and possibly longer. The good news here is the value we get with Seth Curry who should continue to see a huge uptick in volume. Over the last two games, he has thrown up 31 shots including 14 from behind the arc, and has provided 6x value in both. The price is slowly going up on DraftKings but sub $6k is still too cheap for the opportunity and matchup. Lock and load in all formats.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 39.49 DK - 42.75
With the questionable tag on Lebron James tonight, I lean towards Brown as my top pay-up at the small forward position. Even if LBJ plays, Brown has provided a similar 40 point floor at a near $1,500 discount. The issue with Brown is the matchup against the #2 team in defensive efficiency but I am not too worried for cash games as the Celtics usage is very concentrated to Tatum(32%) and Brown(29%) who will have to show up to keep this game close into the 4th quarter.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 20.48 DK - 18.15
With Tobias Harris and Danny Green both out again on Thursday, we will most likely see another start of Thybulle. That is great news if we are building stars and scrubs lineups as he put up 6.4x on DraftKings last game and is now $400 cheaper. He only took four shots but contributed across the board with four rebounds, three steals, and two blocks. Tonight, he also gets a much better matchup as the Pistons sit dead last in the East and rank 21st in defensive efficiency.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 37.45 DK - 39.63
Collins had been dealing with a foot injury but I would go as far to say it is probably better considering he played 37 minutes and tallied his third double-double of the season. The shooting volume and FG% have dropped a bit since the start of the season the price has remained in a position where he has produced 5x+ value in six of eight games this season. It is a tougher matchup and a back-to-back for Atlanta but this game also has the highest total on the slate and is expected to be close throughout.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 35.31 DK - 36.59
I am not big on targeting against top defenses but we have two things working for us tonight. First of all, two of the three games have serious blowout implications which really narrows down the field for cash games. Second, and most importantly, we can't overlook the work Horford has been doing on boards averaging over 10 per game which has led to him scoring 38+ fantasy points in all six games. Even in a tough matchup, he provides a solid PTS/$ floor and is in my player pool in all formats tonight.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 42.63 DK - 44.93
The center position does give us an abundance of options tonight depending on the amount of value that pops up, Joel Embiid is a great option against a terrible Pistons team. I honestly prefer the Sixers' value tonight and at the center position, love the discount in going down to Bam, at least on DraftKings. He returned from a one-game absence due to knee soreness and looked good putting up his 5th double-double in six games on a season-high 18 shots from the field. He now faces a Celtics team that is 19th in defensive efficiency and 3rd to last in total rebounding. Fire up Bam in all formats.
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