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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 11/3/21
We actually have 11 games making up this Wednesday slate, and the injuries continue to pile on. That's where value is found, though, and we'll certainly capitalize on some of that here. With that in mind, let's go ahead and break it down!
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Point Guard
Luka Doncic FD - $10300 DK - $10700
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 55.21 DK - 58.13
Jalen Brunson FD - $4600 DK - $5100
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 29.11 DK - 30.35
It looks like Dallas is going to go small with Kristaps Porzingis and Maxi Kleber on the sidelines. That was certainly the case on Tuesday when Brunson and Doncic carried this offense in that loss to Miami. Doncic is the easy choice here, though, flirting with triple-doubles regularly. The Slovenian point guard has at least 33 DraftKings points in every game en route to a 47-point average. Those are actually "down" numbers from Doncic, and he'll inevitably start dropping 60-burgers at ease. Brunson is the value of the bunch. He started at shooting guard on Tuesday and provided 25 points, seven rebounds, and three assists. That sort of line is tough to find from a $5K player, but Brunson has always proven to be a beast when given the opportunity. The Spurs don't really concern us either, with San Antonio sitting ninth in pace and 29th in field goal percentage defense.
Damian Lillard FD - $8300 DK - $9700
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 44.08 DK - 46.32
Dame has been struggling with his shot mightily, but this $8,300 price tag on FanDuel is silly. This dude is usually north of five figures, and it's just a matter of time before he gets back there. Even with the terrible shooting, Lillard is still averaging 38 DK points per game, surpassing that total in each of his last four fixtures. That's all you can hope for from someone in this price range, and it doesn't even take into consideration his 60-point upside. He literally averaged over 60 DK points in a three-week stretch last year, and he can turn it around on any given night. A matchup with Cleveland might be the thing to get him going, with the Cavs surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards this season.
It looks like Malcolm Brogdon will return here, and he's been a monster when he's played.
Shooting Guard
Paul George FD - $10500 DK - $10900
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 49.59 DK - 50.69
It's crazy how good PG13 looks right now. This dude is in takeover mode with Kawhi Leonard out of the picture, leading the team in pretty much every statistic. What's most important is his usage, taking on a 35 percent usage rate in the absence of Kawhi. He also averaged 1.4 DK points per minute in that role last year which is pretty much the guy we've seen this year, too. That has allowed him to surpass 58 DraftKings points in four of six games this season en route to a 53-point average. The two games he didn't reach that number were both lopsided blowouts, making PG13 one of the most dangerous players in fantasy. A matchup with Minnesota is majestic, too, with the T'Wolves ranked 27th in total defense last year.
OG Anunoby FD - $7300 DK - $7700
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 36.69 DK - 36.94
Many people figured it would be Fred VanVleet stepping up in the absence of Kyle Lowry, but it's actually been OG. Lowry isn't the only one missing, though, with Pascal Siakam and Scottie Barnes nicked up as well. With all of those guys off the floor, Anunoby is amassing 1.3 DK points per minute while posting a 30 percent usage rate. Those numbers are hard to overlook, especially since Anunoby is averaging nearly 40 DK points per game despite struggling with his shot. The icing on the cake is this matchup, though, with Washington ranked first in pace and 29th in total defense last season. In addition, they own a 28th OPRK against opposing SGs this year.
If Josh Hart starts for Brandon Ingram, don't forget about him!
Small Forward
Anthony Edwards FD - $7900 DK - $8400
Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 39.42 DK - 41.01
The man known as ANT has been playing way bigger than that goofy nickname would indicate. This former top-pick struggled in his first few months as a rookie but averaged nearly 40 DK points per game across the final two months of last season. He's definitely carried over that growth, averaging 40.4 fantasy points per game this year. The reason we like him today is the fact that D'Angelo Russell is expected to sit due to an ankle issue. That means Edwards shot attempts and usage will bump up, with the top-pick likely playing a lot of point guard as well. The Clippers' defense isn't as scary as it used to be either, with Los Angeles ranked sixth in pace and dead-last in rebounds surrendered.
Franz Wagner FD - $5400 DK - $5500
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 28.6 DK - 28.74
I wasn't sure what to expect from this guy after Mo Wagner crapped the bed as a professional, but this dude is way better than his brother. Franz has actually been one of the primary playmakers in Orlando, starting and playing 32 minutes a night. It's certainly not empty minutes either, with Wagner scoring at least 20 DK points in every game en route to a 27-point average. That's really good for a guy sitting in the mid-$5,000s, especially with Franz dropping 45 DK points in his most recent outing. That's a rare 9X value, and it's not out of the question with Boston owning a 25th OPRK against opposing small forwards this season while sitting 27th in defensive efficiency ratings and dead-last in points allowed.
Gordon Hayward's price has dropped a bit too much, and he should thrive against the Warriors.
Power Forward
John Collins FD - $6900 DK - $7000
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 37.74 DK - 37.69
The power forward position is easily the toughest position on this slate, but Mr. Collins is an excellent pick around $7K. This guy was all over the map last season, but with Kevin Huerter, De'Andre Hunter, and Danilo Gallinari struggling, JC has had the best start of his career. In fact, Collins has at least 26 DK points in all seven games this season, averaging 36 fantasy points per game. That's quite the total since his shot attempts have been down, but you better believe he'll play big minutes to oppose the Nets. They send out more power forwards than almost any team in the league, and all those old geezers have Brooklyn sitting middle-of-the-pack defensively. That was evident when JC dropped at least 36 fantasy points in all three of their meetings last season.
Michael Porter Jr. FD - $6200 DK - $6100
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 30.87 DK - 31.71
Man, there is nothing that MPJ has done this season that will make him a good recommendation. This guy has struggled vigorously, but his price is finally dropping to a point we can't fade. This was one of the breakout players in the NBA last season, regularly sitting around $8,000 on both DFS sites. A recent slide has gotten him to $6K, but it's just a matter of time before this 23-year-old gets going. It's not like he's been dreadful either, scoring at least 26 DK points in four of his last five games. That recent bump mixed with the price makes him a great GPP option, but the matchup with Memphis is grand too. Porter dropped at least 34 DraftKings points in all three of his meetings with the Griz last season, and they currently allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing PFs as well.
If you're feeling ballsy, Robert Covington is barely cracking $4K and has 40-point upside.
Center
Joel Embiid FD - $9700 DK - $10300
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 0 DK - 0
We don't have Embiid projected for any points because he was rested on Monday, but he should be ready to do damage here. Getting that night off is huge for this guy because he will be asked to do a ton in this spot. Philly was already missing Ben Simmons, but they're going to have to cope without Tobias Harris too. Toby finds himself in the dreaded COVID protocols, and it's going to leave Embiid with all the usage he can handle. The big man actually averaged 1.4 DK points per minute with those two off the floor last season, providing a ridiculous 38 percent usage rate. If he does both of those things here, we could be looking at 60 DK points! Joel actually had one of the best games of his career against these Bulls last year, collecting 50 points, 17 rebounds, five assists, and four blocks on his way to an absurd 91.8 fantasy points.
Evan Mobley FD - $6600 DK - $7000
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 34.33 DK - 33.33
I was concerned when Cleveland drafted Mobley with all the big men they possess, but Evan has carved out a really nice role for them. The rookie has his average up to 33 DraftKings points per game, dropping 38-plus on four occasions this year. That means you have a 50 percent chance to reach 5.5X value, which is really incredible from a rookie who's only going to get better as the season progresses. What adds to his intrigue here is the fact that Kevin Love is out. That means Mobley should swallow up all the PF minutes, playing 40 minutes in the first game without the former All-Star. The matchup with Portland is pristine, too, with the Trail Blazers ranked 19th in total defense this year after sitting bottom-three last year.
Karl-Anthony Towns should benefit from D-Lo sitting as well.
