Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) drives around Utah Jazz guard Raul Neto, left, in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
This slate is downright ugly. There are five games in total and only four making up the DFS card. It happens to be a bunch of struggling teams, too, making the selections particularly tough. The good news is that we have plenty of superstars to pick from and numerous value plays to mix them with.
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Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 49.44 DK - 51.44
Dame has been struggling with his shot all year, but this $8,400 price tag on FanDuel is laughable. This dude is usually north of $10K, and it's just a matter of time before he gets there. Despite his shooting slump, Lillard still has 32 DraftKings points in four of five games en route to a 36-point average. We expect that average to jump closer to 45-50 fantasy points as the season progresses, and that means some positive regression is headed his way as well. Dame has killed Charlotte over recent years, scoring at least 45 DK points in each of their last two meetings dating back to 2019.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 21.92 DK - 22.33
Um, $3,600 on DraftKings? This looks like a mistake made by DK, clearly failing to realize that Cunningham is back and starting. He really struggled with his shot in his debut, but this is a guy who's expected to stuff the stat sheet at ease. Our projections have him sitting around 21-22 DK points, but I truly believe a 25/30-point average is more realistic. This guy is expected to run this offense and handle the ball as much as possible, making this price tag truly shocking. He did play just 18 minutes in his debut on Saturday and will likely be capped at 20-25 here, but as long as he provides the fantasy-point-per-minute that we anticipate, he'll give us the fantasy production we need.
If you have the salary, Luka Doncic is obviously a great play against a bad Kings defense.
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 50.24 DK - 53.28
It still feels crazy to see Harden below $10K. There have been times in this dude's career where he's north of $12K, and it's just a matter of time before he bumps above the five-figure mark. The thing that's held him back is his ability to get to the free-throw line, but 19 attempts on Friday is a really encouraging sign. That led to a 56-point gem, which is more indicative of the guy we've seen for five years now. It's not like he's been a disaster anyway, scoring at least 37 DK points in all six games. We love the fact that he's handling the ball every time down the floor with Kyrie out, and as long as that continues, Harden will get back to the 50-point player we've become accustomed to. Not to mention, Detroit surrenders the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing guards this season.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 43.92 DK - 44.9
This dude never gets the credit he deserves. McCollum has been a borderline All-Star ever since he came into the league, and he's never treated as such. He's actually having his best season thus far, averaging 40.6 DK points per game. That's above $9K players like Lillard and Donovan Mitchell. All of that makes it a good bargain at just $7,700 on DK, especially when you see that he dropped at least 38 fantasy points in each of his first four games. Charlotte has been struggling with shooting guards, too, owning a 17th OPRK against them this season. The pricing here tells you everything you need to know because he should never be $1,000 cheaper on DK than FD.
If Milwaukee rests players in a B2B, don't forget about Grayson Allen and Pat Connaughton.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 31.32 DK - 32.81
KPJ has been struggling a bit, but a lot of it has to do with this team. Houston can't get out of their own way right now, losing in blowout fashion seemingly every night. That could very well happen again here, but this price tag is dropping enough where it doesn't really matter. We're still talking about the focal point of this Rockets offense, with KPJ posting a usage rate north of 23 percent in all but one game. We saw him doing something similar last season and average over 30 DK points per game in this huge role. He's yet to get back there, but we're getting to a point where we can't fade this sort of usage and ability at this price. The Lakers have been struggling defensively, too, surrendering the second-most fantasy points to opposing point guards.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 24.04 DK - 24.1
This is a picture of Marcus Morris, but Royce O'Neale has a nice beard himself. He's actually probably the better basketball player, too, providing great value on the defensive end. On a four-game slate like this, it's imperative to find a cheap player that will play 30-35 minutes, and that's pretty much who O'Neale has been for the past three years. He usually won't drop more than 30 fantasy points but getting 20 DK points from a $4,500 player is just fine, especially when you get to fit in some of the aforementioned studs. We believe his minutes could climb here for two reasons. The first is that this is a back-to-back set, likely limiting more important players' minutes. The second is that they need him to defend Giannis, likely opening up more opportunities for steals and blocks.
Saddiq Bey is leading Detroit in minutes played and fantasy points, making him enticing around $6K.
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 63.35 DK - 64.93
On a short slate like this, it's imperative to take the guaranteed fantasy points when you can get them. There's no better bet for that than Giannis, essentially playing to a 50-point floor. That floor should not be overlooked by his ceiling either, with Giannis regularly dropping 80-point games as well. He's actually scored at least 63 DK points in three of five games this year, which is right on par with our projection system. Facing Utah is definitely a tough matchup, but that really doesn't matter for Giannis. In his two matchups with the Jazz last season, he dropped at least 53 DK points in both en route to a 59-point average.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 26.23 DK - 25.52
We hate how much Detroit has messed with Beef Stew's minutes, but this dude is just too talented to be sitting at $5,200 on both sites. We're talking about a guy who averaged over 30 fantasy points per game as a starter last season, doing that damage in fewer than 30 minutes a night. That per-minute stud has been doing his usual thing this year, averaging 24 DK points per game across 23 minutes a night. It'd be hard to imagine the Pistons keeping this guy below 25 minutes all year, especially with this being the second half of a B2B set. That means Grant could rest after dealing with an elbow issue, which would add even more value to Beef Stew. The matchup with Brooklyn is great, too, with the Nets throwing out one of the worst center rotations in the NBA.
If Kristaps Porzingis is out again, Maxi Kleber is an interesting pivot near $4,000.
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 37.03 DK - 37.79
Nurk has been one of my favorite players in the league for years, and I've never understood why he's never received a full allotment of minutes. Chauncey Billups has praised the big man all season, though, and he could finally be the 30-minute stud we've been waiting for. We say that because Portland has been a victim to numerous blowouts throughout the year, keeping Nurkic at a 24-minute average. It was clear that he was well on his way to 30 minutes in all of those, providing 34 DK points per game in that span. If he keeps that rate going, we could be looking at 40-45 fantasy points per game. That's well above our projections, and it wouldn't take much for him to reach this 37-point projection. It's not like Charlotte is scary either, throwing out a center rotation with Mason Plumlee and P.J. Washington.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 33.04 DK - 32.47
We just dissed Plumlee a little but let's show him some love. The Hornets have been looking for a legit center for years now, and Plumlee has filled that void nicely. In fact, Mason has maintained a 28-point average this season across 28 minutes a night. He's always produced when given the opportunity, and it makes it hard to believe that he remains around $6,000. You better believe Plumlee will be hungry here, too, getting a revenge game against his former team. It happens to be a club with one of the worst defenses in basketball, ranked 29th in defensive efficiency ratings last season.
LaMarcus Aldridge has been a pleasant surprise for the Nets and remains too cheap below $5K.
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