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We've had about a week of action to figure stuff out, and some questions have definitely been answered in that short amount of time. The biggest thing we've noticed is some mispricing from these DFS sites. There's so much value out there, and it's been a lovely start to the year. We want to spread some of that love to you guys, so let's go ahead and get into it!
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Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 53.3 DK - 55.9
This DraftKings price is a bit crazy, but Curry has earned every bit of it with his stellar play. The former MVP picked up a triple-double in the opener and followed it up with a 45-point gem in the second game. The usage makes it easy to understand why he's playing so well, attempting 23 shots a game while generating a 32 percent usage rate. That's all you can hope for from such a pristine shooter, especially with Chef Curry doing even more in the absence of Klay Thompson. Getting to face Sacramento is the icing on the cake, though, with the Kings surrendering the most points in the NBA last season.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 32.7 DK - 32.25
Melton has always been a per-minute stud, and it's about time that he got a significant role. He's been starting with Dillon Brooks sidelined, averaging 21 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game. Those peripheral numbers are usually way better, and he'll inevitably start picking up more assists, steals, and blocks as the season progresses. In any case, he's dropped at least 31 DraftKings points in both starts he's gotten, averaging just shy of 34 fantasy points per game. That makes it hard to believe that he's only $4,200 on DK, especially with the Lakers playing some of the worst basketball in the league right now.
Don't forget about Tyrese Maxey starting for Ben Simmons!
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 25.83 DK - 27.2
This kid was born in 2002? How scary is that to hear? In any case, this kid is a straight baller, and it's just a matter of time before he starts providing ridiculous fantasy lines. The averages have been lackluster through the first two games but scoring at least 22 DK points in each is a good indicator of what his floor will look like, despite his struggles. This is still the primary ball-handler for one of the worst teams in the NBA, and he's going to pick up value through sheer volume. That's why we have his projection sitting around 26 fantasy points, which would be an incredible total from a guy sitting around $5K. Not to mention, Boston owns a 30th OPRK against opposing guards this season, too.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 24.78 DK - 26.09
These sites seem to be off with these Memphis players. Melton and Bane have stepped into this starting lineup, and both guys should be $6K players. The $4,200 price tag on DK is laughable, with Bane scoring 33 DraftKings points in each of the first two games. That's a genuinely absurd total from someone this cheap, and it looks like he's a guarantee for 30 minutes with Brooks out of the lineup. This is pretty much the guy we saw in the preseason, too, with Bane stuffing the stat sheet just like Melton. Facing Los Angeles isn't too bad either, with the Lakers ranked 19th in defensive efficiency ratings.
Andrew Wiggins could be a sneaky option against a terrible Kings defense.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 44.4 DK - 45.71
Brown had one MVP-type game and one absolute stinker. We're going to say that the gem is the more likely result here because Brown was really killed by the blowout nature of that most recent defeat. In the game prior, JB dropped 76.3 DK points in one of the performances of the year. He likely won't have a game that good for the rest of the season, but it makes it hard to believe that he's barely cracking $8K. We love his increase in usage, too, playing a lot of point guard with Kemba Walker moving to New York. Getting to face Houston only adds to his intrigue, with the Rockets ranked 28th in defensive efficiency last year.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 31.37 DK - 33.13
Green and Porter are the core of this Houston team, and both guys will trade-off ball-handling duties as the season progresses. KPJ is more likely to handle the ball, averaging nearly 40 DK points per game as the starting point guard last season. We haven't quite seen that this year but 33 DK points per game is nothing to scoff at. That's right on par with our projections, and we truly believe this guy is in the midst of a breakout campaign. We already discussed how poorly Boston has been with opposing guards, too, and it makes it shocking that he's only $6,000 on FanDuel.
Kelly Oubre Jr has returned to his 2020 form for Charlotte and remains way too cheap.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 41.33 DK - 41.77
The Simmons situation has been a disaster for the Sixers, but it's actually been pretty good for many of their players from a fantasy perspective. The most important thing it does is open up stats for the rest of the rotation guys. Harris has been one of the primary beneficiaries, averaging nearly 1.3 DK points per minute with Simmons off the floor since the beginning of last season. That's a fantastic rate from a sub-$8K player, especially with Harris seeing his ball-handling and rebounding boost in that span as well. Getting to face OKC is simply a bonus, with the Thunder allowing 124 points per game.
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 37.86 DK - 36.62
Many fantasy experts have coined Rob-Will as the "Time Lord" because there haven't seen many better per-minute producers in the NBA. This dude averaged nearly 1.5 DK points per minute last season, providing fantastic value through rebounding and his defense. That's certainly been the case in the first two games of this season, averaging 37 DraftKings points per game. A lot of that damage came in just one outing, but it's right on par with what our projections say. It's not like we expect Houston to slow him down, either with the Rockets ranked near the bottom of every defensive metric last season.
Harrison Barnes has been outstanding in the first two games and should be an easy target against his former team.
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 51.71 DK - 53.65
We already mentioned how Simmons absence had opened things up for the rest of these guys, and Embiid is undoubtedly taking over a lot of those touches. He was already an MVP candidate when Sim was in the picture, but his 36 percent usage rate with him off the floor is hard to overlook. It's led to more sensational production, with Joel scoring at least 42 DK points in each of the first two games. That's closer to his floor than his average, and we truly believe he'll be a regular for 50 DK points from here on out. We definitely don't think Oklahoma City will be able to stop him from reaching that, with the Thunder owning one of the worst rotations in the NBA.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 30.26 DK - 29.45
It was unclear what Adams would do at the beginning of the season, but we're starting to get a good idea now. The big man will be a significant part of this offense, scoring at least 33 DK points in each of the first two games en route to a 36-point average. We don't reasonably expect him to reach that average, but 30 DK points at this price is an absolute gem. Facing Los Angeles isn't necessarily an easy matchup, but it should guarantee Adams 30-plus minutes. We say that because they have one of the tallest rotations in the NBA, and Adams is the only guy on this roster who can match up with the likes of Deandre Jordan, Anthony Davis, and Dwight Howard.
We also like Mitchell Robinson around 6K on both sites too.
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