Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) points down field during an NFL football game against the Washington Football Team, Sunday, Oct. 17, 2021, in Landover, Md. (AP Photo/Mark Tenally)
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Opponent CIN
Proj Points FD - 25.61 DK - 26.33
He didn’t turn in a world-beater in Week 6, but it was more about a little bad luck than anything else. The Ravens crushed the Chargers 34-6 and were so in control of the game that they simply didn’t need Jackson to do anything else. He only threw for 167 yards and a touchdown (Hollywood Brown dropped an easy one) and put up 51 yards on the ground. Again, it wasn’t anything to write home about, but he got scripted out of the game more than anything else. The Bengals have been better than advertised on defense this season, ranking in the top-10 in DVOA. But the way Lamar scores points, his floor is just safer than anyone else at the position on a game-to-game basis.
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 25.6 DK - 26.14
There is a case to pay all the way up for Mahomes here considering the game total, matchup, and the fact that he is Patrick Freakin Mahomes. He now ranks second on the season in DraftKings points per game behind only Derrick Henry. And we saw that the Chiefs are going to need to continue relying on the aerial game considering they ran for less than four yards per carry last week against the Washington Football Team. Mahomes is very expensive, but the Chiefs have a whopping 30.5 implied total coming in here.
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 18.57 DK - 20.63
We like to look for running backs as big home favorites as a starting place for cash games and Fournette definitely fits the bill there. The Bucs are -13 against the Bears coming into this game and Fournette has taken over RB1 duties for Tampa Bay. He’s played about 70% of the snaps for the Bucs over the last three weeks and has been pretty efficient when getting the ball. He’s averaging about 4.5 yards per carry in that stretch with more than five targets per game in the passing attack. The Bears have been a decent defense on the season, but Fournette is still underpriced for his role and the Bucs being such big favorites.
Opponent DET
Proj Points FD - 18.31 DK - 19.44
Speaking of big home favorites, the Rams come in at -14.5 against the lowly Lions on Sunday. After coming back from injury, Henderson has been back to the RB1 for LA and last week played 82% of the snaps in the easy win over the Giants. With a similar implied game script, we could see him trend towards 20 carries again in this one. Detroit is the 27th ranked defense on the season and shouldn’t offer much in the way of resistance for the Rams.
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 18.15 DK - 21.02
Man, what do we do with this guy? It sure doesn’t feel like the insane productivity can continue, but I’ve thought that for like four straight games with Patterson and he seems to just keep doing it. Even in London, when he didn’t find his way into the end zone, he still managed 114 total yards and seven receptions. It’s the latter that makes him more of a DraftKings play at this point. I think the FanDuel price is a little too steep considering he still cedes carries to Mike Davis. Note: Patterson is also a WR on FD now
What to do about Derrick Henry here? He’s so, so expensive. But the Titans just give him roughly a million carries per game and the Chiefs still rank second-to-last in the league on defense and are bad against the run. This seems both easy and difficult at the same time. The case against is the Titans can’t keep pace and just then can’t keep the ball on the ground. The flip side is they almost always keep the ball on the ground with Henry.
Opponent TEN
Proj Points FD - 23.28 DK - 27.77
We played Hill a bit under-owned in cash games on both sites last week and ended up putting in a solid performance with nine catches for 76 yards and a touchdown. He did have to take a couple of series off with an injury which cut into the production some. Here he draws a great matchup against a weak Tennessee secondary that has it ranked 27th in the league against the pass this season. I think, if anything, we are still getting a bit of a discount on Hill here. He is third in the league in targets behind Adams and Kupp though arguably has a better possible game script than either of those guys this week.
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 11.22 DK - 14.07
Opponent CAR
Proj Points FD - 7.26 DK - 8.85
Some of this depends on injury news we get throughout the rest of the week. It looks like Kadarius Toney is going to miss some time after leaving Week 6’s game with an injury. Additionally, currently Kenny Golladay and Darius Slayton are questionable after missing last week. This WR decimation resulted in Shepard and Pettis seeing 14 and 11 targets respectively in Week 6. Shepard, on a PPR level, was very good at his price point going for 10 catches and 76 yards. Meanwhile, Pettis got the looks though the efficiency was bad, putting up *only* five catches for 48 yards. Jones missed him downfield on numerous occasions in a tough matchup against the Rams. Let’s monitor this situation throughout the week to see if these two will get the majority of the snaps in Week 7.
This is sure shaping up like a stars and scrubs weeks, especially at wide receiver where the top-tier options like Hill are just so much better than everyone else. The other two in that discussion are DaVante Adams and Cooper Kupp. That trio represents the target leaders this season. I think spending up on two of them is the way to go.
Opponent MIA
Proj Points FD - 13.19 DK - 16.08
Pitts finally put it together two weeks ago in London, getting 10 targets on his way to a 9/119/1 line that bad the day on the early showdown slate. That was without Ridley and Gage so it’s a little unclear if we can expect the target share to remain, but it’s certainly a good sign. We are getting him at something of a discount here if he’s going to keep targets in the 8-9 range going forward, though that might be asking a lot. I still like the FanDuel price for sure.
Opponent GB
Proj Points FD - 10.1 DK - 12.27
Seals-Jones was a popular play against the Chiefs in Week 6 and mostly delivered with four catches for 58 yards an a touchdown. Most of it came on the one 39-yard touchdown pass in the second quarter though. The price on DraftKings didn’t move all that much and I think we are still getting him at a bargain considering he played on 100% of the offensive snaps last week and did get enough looks in the passing game.
Note: There are a lot of good defenses in excellent spots this week. Rams against the Lions, Bucs against the Bears, Patriots against the Jets, etc. But you do have to pay for all of them and that can be a dicey proposition with defenses.
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 9.24 DK - 9.24
The Cardinals get to face the Texans in Week 7 and the price on DraftKings didn’t get totally corrected here. The Texans rank second to last in offensive DVOA this season and are just generally horrible. Meanwhile, Arizona is the second-ranked defense in DVOA. That’s a great spot to be with the Cardinals as the 7th-most expensive defense.
Opponent NE
Proj Points FD - 6.36 DK - 6.36
If looking for a cheaper/ punt option I think the Jets could fit the bill here. Are they a good team? No, of course not. But the Patriots are ranked in the bottom third on offense this season and play at a pretty slow pace. This game has a low total and it’s hard to see New England running it up in a meaningful way.
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