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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 10/1/21
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Pitchers
The decisions at starting pitcher are tough tonight as Kershaw is likely on a pitch count, the White Sox and Astros, with their divisions locked up, won't be pushing Lynn or Valdez and Sandy Alcantara tops the salary on DraftKings. There are a few spots that do stand out so let's get started.
Ranger Suárez FD - P 9000 DK - SP 8800
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - MIA
FD - 30.04 DK - 15.32
The Phillies have been getting a glimpse into their future as Suarez has been making a strong case to open the 2022 season in the rotation. Since they fully stretched him out in late August, he has been spectacular holding opponents to just seven earned runs over seven starts while striking out 45(27%) and walking eight. Tonight, he and the Phillies are -120 favorites against a Marlins team that ranks in the bottom third offensively. At these prices, Suarez is my top pitcher in all formats.
Steven Matz FD 8000 DK 8700
Opponent - BAL (Undecided) Park - BAL
FD - 37.07 DK - 19.7
Continuing with the balanced approach, we have Steven Matz who won't be limited tonight as the Jays are in do or die mode in the final three days of the season. Matz has been a welcome addition to the rotation this season and has impressed with a 3.88 ERA/3.95 xFIP and has been terrific down the stretch allowing two or fewer earned runs in nine of his last 10 starts. He now faces a bottom-five offense in Baltimore to close out his season and hopefully help the Jays playoff push. I will have exposure in all formats and will be pairing him with Suarez in cash games.
Catcher/First Base
Freddie Freeman FD 3900 DK 5500
Opponent - NYM (Tylor Megill) Park - NYM
FD - 13.54 DK - 10.13
There is some risk in rostering players from teams who have locked up their playoff spot but this is a great spot that I want to get exposure to on this slate. Freeman has been closing out the season strong hitting .320 with a .386 wOBA in the month of September and now gets a plus matchup against rookie Tylor Megill who has really struggled against left-handed bats(.413 wOBA against). The Braves are one of my top teams to target tonight and Freeman is my top overall play at first base.
Ty France FD 3100 DK 4600
Opponent - LAA (José Suarez) Park - LAA
FD - 9.56 DK - 7.3
When it comes to playing for something in the final days of the season, we just need to look at the AL Wildcard race. The Mariners are right in the middle of it and despite a breakout season for France, the price has remained very affordable on both sites. He has not only been consistent(.293 avg/.368 OBP) but shown a ton of upside with 18 home runs, 73 RBI, and 82 runs scored. From a PTS/$ perspective, France is my top play at the positon and one of my favorite values on the slate.
Eric Hosmer FD 2700 DK 2900
Opponent - SF (Anthony DeSclafani) Park - SF
FD - 8.73 DK - 6.63
It was a tough season for Hosmer who was essentially pushed to the bench but he has been playing more down the stretch and makes a decent punt play at the position. In his recent starts, he has hit in the top half of the lineup and has hits in five of his last six games when starting and is once again projected to again tonight. Stay tuned for lineups.
Second Base
Ozzie Albies FD 4200 DK 5100
Opponent - NYM (Tylor Megill) Park - NYM
FD - 10.65 DK - 8.15
While the average has yet to get near the tremendous 2019 season, Albies has been extremely productive in 2021 as one of only six players with both 100 RBI and runs scored going into the final weekend. He is another Braves bat I am willing to pay up for tonight as, like Freeman, he gets a tremendous matchup as Megill has really struggled against left-handed bats.
Also Consider: Trea Turner(LAD) who has been en fuego in September with an elite .340/.393/.557 slash line or Adam Frazier(SDP) who is projected to leadoff for the Padres and is closing strong with three multi-hit efforts in his last five games
Shortstop
Bo Bichette FD 4000 DK 5500
Opponent - BAL (Undecided) Park - BAL
FD - 1.99 DK - 1.53
The Orioles have yet to announce a starter and will rely on their bullpen today and that is great news for the Jays bats. No one has put the team on their back down the stretch more than Bo who comes in with four straight multi-hit efforts and has posted a .345 average and .401 wOBA in September. It's all about getting runners on in front of him so if playing Bo in cash, I would pair with Springer who is leading off and still under $5K on DraftKings.
Also Consider: Bo's teammate, Marcus Semien(TOR) who is still eligible at SS on FanDuel, Corey Seager(LAD) who should be lower owned in a lefty/lefty matchup but has been terrific in the split this season(.395 wOBA, 150 wRC+), or Jorge Polanco(MIN) for some value at the position
Third Base
Josh Donaldson FD 3200 DK 4400
Opponent - KC (Jon Heasley) Park - KC
FD - 11.77 DK - 8.72
Luis Arraez FD 2100 DK 3400
Opponent - KC (Jon Heasley) Park - KC
FD - 10.59 DK - 8.32
The Twins are long out of the playoff race but still provide us with some value for DFS purposes. On DraftKings, both Arraez and Donaldson are eligible at third base and both have been productive in 2021. Arraez has hits in five straight and consistently hits leadoff when facing right-handed pitching and his price provides a ton of salary relief to pay up for the big bats tonight. For Donaldson, the average has been down in 2021 but he has posted his 6th straight season with 25+ home runs/70+ RBI/70+ runs scored when playing over 100 games. Both are in play in all formats tonight.
This is a position I am likely taking the value and moving on but others I am considering are Yoan Moncada(CHW) if he was to move up the lineup some, Austin Riley(ATL) if paying up at the position, or Ryan McMahon(COL) as another value play
Outfield
Hunter Renfroe FD 3600 DK 5000
Opponent - WSH (Josh Rogers) Park - WSH
FD - 14.51 DK - 10.84
J.D. Martinez FD 3800 DK 4800
Opponent - WSH (Josh Rogers) Park - WSH
FD - 13.9 DK - 10.44
Enrique Hernández FD 3400 DK 4800
Opponent - WSH (Josh Rogers) Park - WSH
FD - 12.15 DK - 9.16
The Red Sox have been very frustrating to roster over the last couple of weeks but just can't ignore these prices in plus matchup after plus matchup. The outfield is once again where I am focusing my exposure as all three have been good against left-handed pitching and hit in or around the top of the lineup. It's also crazy how they aren't consistently scoring runs as Renfroe comes in with hits in seven straight and 11 of his last 12, Martinez has hits in 14 of his last 18, and Hernandez has hits in eight of his last 10. For cash games, I will most definitely be building around at least two Red Sox bats but there is a case to be made to fade them in GPP due to the high ownership and lack of consistency lately.
Mitch Haniger FD 3700 DK 5300
Opponent - LAA (José Suarez) Park - LAA
FD - 10.62 DK - 8
The Mariners' offense has catapulted them into a tie with the Red Sox in the wildcard and Haniger has played a huge role in that. He comes into tonight with hits in six straight with three long balls and has posted a .369 wOBA, 139 wRC+, and .288 ISO in the month of September. The M's have everything to play for, Haniger hits near the top of the lineup, crushes lefties, and is in play in all formats tonight.
