DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 9/30/21

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Pitchers

Robbie Ray FD - P 10800 DK - SP 10000
Opponent - NYY (Corey Kluber) Park - TOR
FD - 40.6 DK - 21.63

The Jays can make the American League wildcard race even crazier with another win against the Yankees tonight and the good news is they are sending their ace to the mound. On top of the playoffs, Ray is also in the running for the Cy Young and got some help there with his offense getting to Cole last night. For Ray, the floor is high as he has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 21 of 31 stars and he also has a ton of upside with a slider that is creating a 24% swinging-strike rate and 58% K rate. It won't be easy against the Yankees bats but on this slate, Ray is my top pitcher in all formats.

Joe Ryan FD - P 8800 DK - SP 9300
Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - MIN
FD - 31.83 DK - 17.27

Things get interesting at Sp2 on DraftKings tonight with no pitcher really standing out above the rest. While the price is going parabolic, I am on rookie Joe Ryan who has more than impressed since being called up in September. He has gone at least five innings in all four starts, held opponents to just six earned runs(2.45 ERA/3.54 xFIP), and has struck out 25(32%) while walking just three. He now gets a matchup against a below-average Tigers offense as a -185 favorite and is my top SP2 and one of my top overall pitchers on this slate.

Catcher/First Base

Pete Alonso FD 3800 DK 3900
Opponent - MIA (Edward Cabrera) Park - MIA
FD - 11.82 DK - 8.78

This is much more about DraftKings tonight as Alonso's price has dipped into the $3K range. It's as if he is priced based on his average(.258) and not by his production as he enters the night with a .357 wOBA, 129 wRC+ with 35 home runs, and 89 RBI. The matchup is also above-average as Cabrera has struggled to a 5.79 ERA/5.49 xFIP through his first six starts and it comes down to control walking 3+ in five of those six starts. That should help the Mets get on base for Alonso who has a ton of upside. GPP only on FanDuel but a great PTS/$ value in all formats on DraftKings.

Bobby Dalbec FD 3000 DK 3600
Opponent - BAL (Alexander Wells) Park - BAL
FD - 12.03 DK - 8.99

It's no secret our system has this weird thing with Bobby Dalbec and it really comes down to the projection boost with the Red Sox sitting atop the implied runs projections. He likely isn't going to win you a GPP on his own but the good news is that he has been much more productive against lefties with a .365 wOBA, 129 wRC+, and .263 ISO. That puts him right near the top of our PTS/$ rankings tonight. In play in all formats.

Second Base

Enrique Hernández FD 3400 DK 4800
Opponent - BAL (Alexander Wells) Park - BAL
FD - 12.92 DK - 9.75

Back to the Red Sox at second base and what I like about them tonight, outside of their 6+ projected runs, is that there are multiple values making them easy to stack in cash. Hernandez is one of them and while he isn't hitting the cover off the ball, he hits leadoff in front of a loaded lineup and has better splits(.359 wOBA/125 wRC+) against lefties. He also comes in with hits in seven of his last nine and is in play in all formats.

Ketel Marte FD 3600 DK 4600
Opponent - SF (Scott Kazmir) Park - SF
FD - 8.85 DK - 6.82

The Diamondbacks have shifted Marte to second in preparation for 2022 and while that may have taken away some concentration from his bat, he is in a great spot tonight. He faces Scott Kazmir who has been average-at-best(4.09 ERA/4.36 xFIP) since returning to baseball and has been dominant against lefty pitching with a .505 wOBA, 218 wRC+, and .366 ISO. I may not go this direction in cash games but do like the D-Backs as a low-owned/high-upside stack in GPP formats.

Shortstop

Corey Seager FD 3900 DK 5300
Opponent - SD (Vince Velasquez) Park - SD
FD - 13.83 DK - 10.44

The Dodgers are locked into the playoffs but still have a shot at the division so will once again be coming out swinging. The position is loaded but Seager sits at the top for me tonight in a terrific matchup against Vince Velazquez who has posted a 9.87 ERA/5.88 xFIP in six second-half starts. Adding to the plus matchup is the fact VV has really struggled against lefties giving up a .399 wOBA in the split. The Dodgers are a core team for me and Seager is my top priority.

Amed Rosario FD 3200 DK 4200
Opponent - KC (Angel Zerpa) Park - KC
FD - 10.55 DK - 8.27

Rosario is a value play that almost always pops up when facing a lefty(.359 wOBA/129 wRC+) and while he might only get one or two at-bats vs. the rookie, that might be more than enough. Rosario has also been fairly consistent in the short term with hits in five of his last seven games with four extra-base hits. If your not paying up at shortstop, Rosario is my to PTS/$ play at the position.

Third Base

Kris Bryant FD 3900 DK 4800
Opponent - ARI (Madison Bumgarner) Park - ARI
FD - 12.53 DK - 9.39
Evan Longoria FD 3200 DK 3800
Opponent - ARI (Madison Bumgarner) Park - ARI
FD - 10.42 DK - 7.94

I mentioned the Dodgers still having a chance for the division and it's the Giants who have been making it hard on them. They have the best record in baseball and have not let up at all and now get a plus matchup against MadBum who has really struggled down the stretch(6.17 ERA/5.64 xFIP last six starts).

Kris Bryant came over at the deadline and while he has been average for the Giants, he is a terrific hitter, especially against left-handed pitching(.392 wOBA/145 wRC+/.262 ISO). For Longoria, if not for his teammate Buster Posey, would likely be a front-runner for comeback player of the year with a .369 wOBA and 134 wRC+. Better yet, he has absolutely demolished lefties to the tune of a .471 wOBA, 200 wRC+, and .339 ISO. His best value comes on DraftKings in the sub $4K range but he is in play on both sites, especially if hitting in the Top 5 of the lineup.

I see no reason to not play one of the two above in cash games but for GPP, I love getting exposure to Jose Ramirez(CLE) in some Cleveland stacks.

Outfield

Hunter Renfroe FD 3600 DK 4900
Opponent - BAL (Alexander Wells) Park - BAL
FD - 15.5 DK - 11.58
J.D. Martinez FD 3800 DK 4800
Opponent - BAL (Alexander Wells) Park - BAL
FD - 14.8 DK - 11.12

The Red Sox are in line to be the highest owned team once again and it really comes down to the sites pricing algorithms. FanDuel is a little better but getting two high upside bats that crush lefties at a price under $5K on DraftKings is just criminal. After burning people(myself included) for multiple days, the offense got back on track last night putting up a six-spot and I see much more of the same tonight so expect 3-4 Boston players in the opti. I will have a ton of exposure in all formats.

Byron Buxton FD 4000 DK 4700
Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - DET
FD - 13.32 DK - 10.14

I have the Twins down as a GPP team tonight as they have been average-at-best this season and below-average as a team against lefties. One play I have my eye on in all formats, however, is Buxton who is making up for the lost time to injury this season and comes in with hits in 10 of his last 11 games including four doubles and two home runs. The price is a little steep on FanDuel making him GPP-only like the rest of his teammates but on DraftKings I will have exposure in all formats.

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