(AP Photo/Wilfredo Lee)
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Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 26.65 DK - 27.43
After a couple of mediocre weeks for Allen to start the season, he blew it out of the box in Week 3 against Washington and looked very much like one of the best fantasy (and real-life) quarterbacks in the league again. Allen completed 74% of his passes, something that wasn’t happening in the first couple of games, and finished with 358 yards and four touchdowns. He didn’t need to get out and run as much as the first couple of games, but we know it’s in his bag. This should be a cakewalk for the Bills against the Texans and there is some blowout risk. But frankly, that happened in Week 3 and Allen was still the best quarterback on the week.
Opponent KC
Proj Points FD - 22.12 DK - 22.95
I much prefer the DraftKings price here on Hurts going against the Chiefs in a game that’s tied for the highest total (54.5). From a fantasy perspective, Hurts has been solid in two of the first three weeks, ranking as QB8 in DraftKings scoring. He has the second-most quarterback rushing yards on the season with 179 (15th overall in the league) and has gotten into the end zone once as well. This is a fantasy smash spot for Hurts if the Eagles are playing from behind and the damage he does on the ground makes up for some inconsistency through the air. Again, this is more a DraftKings play than anything else, but he has a high floor at $6900.
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 23.11 DK - 24.51
This is about as perfect a situation for a running back as you can get. First off, the Jets stink and the Titans are -7.5 road favorites. Second of all, while New York’s defense hasn’t been nearly as bad as the offense, running backs have still been able to put up yards against them because they are mostly running downhill after their team is up early. And then there is Henry who somehow already has 92 touches through the first three weeks. He’s racked up 353 yards and three touchdowns on the ground adding another 105 yards through the receiving game as well. The price is really expensive, but this is really the dream spot for a RB1.
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 14.24 DK - 16.26
With Christian McCaffrey sitting out this week with the hamstring industry it looks like Chuba Hubbard is the next man up in the offense. He is no CMC and really no one is, but we know that Carolina values a tunning back that can play three downs whenever possible to keep the similarities in place with how they run things. After CMC went down in Week 3, Hubbard played 78% of the remaining snaps in the backfield. He ended up with 11 rushing attempts and five passing targets. If he is going to get 20-ish looks at a similar snap percentage then these prices are too low. I suspect against Dallas in what should be a higher scoring game that he sees a lot of ownership.
There are other situations to monitor here. Obviously, if Dalvin Cook is out again then Alexander Mattison would move right back up to the top of the list. We need to monitor this situation.
That is also the case with Darrell Henderson and Sony Michel as well.
Opponent SEA
Proj Points FD - 17.75 DK - 21.56
Don’t look now, but Deebo Samuel is second in the league in receiving yards to start the season. Sure, it’s propped up on the Week 1 breakout game that had him putting up 189 yards. But the targets have sustained and he has double-digit looks in two of the first three games. He's also hovering around the Top-10 in percentage of the team's targeted Air Yards. The 49ers like to run the ball, but when Jimmy G has gone to the air Samuel has been the first look. The price, especially on FanDuel is too low for the overall target share. He is a cash game play on both sites and the matchup is a good one.
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 16.57 DK - 20.2
An underrated thing about the Christian McCaffrey loss is just how many targets it opens up in the passing game. Through two games and change, CMC had 17 targets. While some will now move to Hubbard, it isn't a total lateral move there. It makes total sense that DJ Moore saw his most looks in Week 3 when the star running back went down. Moore is clearly Darnold’s WR1, ranking 7th overall in targets in the NFL through the first three weeks and set to see double-digit looks once again. His DK price is a bargain at this point and Carolina will be trying to keep pace with Dallas’s offense in this one.
Opponent HOU
Proj Points FD - 14.02 DK - 17.51
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 12.03 DK - 14.67
I’m putting these two guys as lower-middle-tier options who are seeing solid target share this season. Beasley is tied for 9th in the league in receiving targets through the first three weeks and Josh Allen has looked his way 24% of the time so far. Additionally, he's now seen the 4th-most Red Zone targets through Week 3 (via AddMoreFunds) He isn’t a downfield threat, but he has 13 targets in two of the first three games of the season. That is elite and yet he is priced well under the usage.
Meanwhile, with Jacoby Brissett under center for the full game in Week 3, Waddle was the primary beneficiary with 13 targets (27% target share) and efficient as well, turning that into 12 catches for 58 yards. He doesn’t draw a great matchup against the Colts, but we could be buying low if he is just the Dolphin’s possession receiver going forward. Waddle ranks 4th in separation this season per NFL Next Gen Stats which helps when moving between quarterbacks.
Opponent PHI
Proj Points FD - 18.32 DK - 22.24
Travis Kelce is once again set to lap the tight end field in terms of fantasy points this season. He already has 14 more DraftKings points than the next-closest TE (Rob Gronkowski) and that gap is only set to widen over the course of the year. The only real question with Kelce is if you can pay all the way up at the position. On FanDuel, it’s a little bit easier considering some of the savings at other positions. On DraftKings, it’s a bit tougher. But if you aren’t playing him, you are likely punting the position.
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 10.31 DK - 12.62
Gesicki sure appreciated having Jacoby Brissett as the signal-caller on Sunday, getting 12 targets and turning that into 10 catches for 86 yards. Tua is still out and I think we could see a similar pass distribution this week. It’s a little risky, but the DraftKings’ price is so low we aren’t likely to get totally burned.
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 6.65 DK - 8.2
This is a bit more speculative than I like to get but there is some context here. The Panthers traded away Dan Arnold who had 11 targets through the first three games. But looking to bolster their defense, they sent Arnold to Jacksonville. Now, it looks like the rookie Tremble will step into the spot. Does he have a ton of upside? No, but he’s super cheap especially on DraftKings and I actually think that, while a risk, this is an okay value spot.
Opponent CHI
Proj Points FD - 7.2 DK - 7.2
The Bears' offense was the hottest of hot messes last week with Justin Fields under center. And they weren't exactly lighting the world on fire the previous two weeks with Andy Dalton there. So I think any way we slice it the Lions are in play here. They are coming close to the minimum on DraftKings and have actually dialed up eight sacks already on the season. I think they are the DK play in cash games considering the matchup and savings you are getting.
Opponent PIT
Proj Points FD - 8.09 DK - 8.09
Did you watch the Steelers' offense last week? They averaged about 5.5 yards per pass attempt and Ben Roethlisberger is averaging in the bottom third of average intended air yards. They aren't pushing the ball down the field, rely on the run too much, and when that doesn't work they checked down to Najee Harris 19 (19!!!) times. Big Ben might be cooked and we can buy on the Packers' D at reasonable prices.
Opponent IND
Proj Points FD - 8.17 DK - 8.17
Carson Wentz is another quarterback not pushing the ball down the field (7th worst intended air yards) and he's thrown only three touchdowns in three games. Plus the dude was playing on not one, but two sprained ankles last week.
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