The 2021 NFL season is now in full swing and the DFSR team has covered with content all week long. Earlier in the week, we covered our top cash game plays and also looked at all the relevant injuries and now it's time to look at some of the top stacks for GPP formats.
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We have to wait until the afternoon but this game has the highest total on the slate and is, by far, my favorite place to start my teams in almost every single format. I prefer both teams passing games and if I had to choose just one, it would be the Chargers' side as the Cowboys' pass defense picked up where it left off in 2020, looking absolutely terrible. Add on that they will lose pass rusher DeMarcus Lawrence and both starting safeties are questionable this week(Wilson did not practice all week & Wright was limited Thurs/Fri).
With all that said let's take a look at both sides.
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 24.18 DK - 24.88
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 16.18 DK - 19.7
Opponent DAL
Proj Points FD - 12.42 DK - 14.77
Like I mentioned above, I favor the Chargers side a little bit more in this game as a pick to win and for DFS. It starts with quarterback Justin Herbert who is not only cheaper on both sites but is coming off a week where he threw the ball 47 times, eight most of any quarterback to start the season. He only completed 31 of those passes and was only able to throw for one TD as Washington's redzone defense held its own but he did end up with 337 yards and was rated the 4th most aggressive QB in week one(via NextGen Stats).
What I really like about both these teams are the concentrated targets to a smaller number of players. For the Chargers, Keenan Allen(13) and Mike Williams(12) drew 25 targets between them(54%) with no other receiver having more than five. It's a small sample size but I feel the Cowboys are going to be much stronger vs. the run than the pass so projecting Herbert for 40+ pass attempts in this projected high-pace game doesn't feel crazy at all and if he can tally multiple TD's this week he could easily be in the winning lineups. For cash games, I prefer pairing Herbert with Allen but in GPP I will have a mix of them alternated as well a bunch of QB/WR/WR stacks.
Also Consider: Austin Ekeler(RB) but I will personally be underweight on the field this week
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 22.89 DK - 23.66
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 16.7 DK - 20.34
Opponent LAC
Proj Points FD - 14.78 DK - 17.69
The matchup is a little bit tougher for the Cowboys but the volume will almost certainly be there again. The offensive line struggled and now they lose their RT to suspension and more concerning is the continued regression of Zeke's touches(13 in week 1). All of that led to a league-high 58 pass attempts for Dak and he looked very good completing 42 of them (72%) for 403 yards and three touchdowns. All of that against the defending champion Bucs who ranked Top 5 in DVOA vs. the pass in 2020. They now face a Chargers team that ranked 16th in DVOA vs. the pass in 2020 and were middle of the pack in week one with just one sack and no interceptions.
Almost identical to Allen and Williams, Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb saw 16 and 15 targets respectively(54% of team total) and that was with Michael Gallup in the lineup. Gallup is now on IR which is an upgrade to Cedrick Wilson if you are looking for a punt play but for me, it just means more work for the two elite options in Lamb and Cooper. I also have the Cowboys coming from behind or at least playing in a close game which has me seeing another high % passing attack leading to a high floor for these plays as well a very high ceiling.
Opponent NYJ
Proj Points FD - 11.79 DK - 12.19
One stack I like either as a building block in a contrarian build or to help differentiate is if game-stacking the Cowboys/Chargers is Patriots run game and defense. It starts with Harris who is projected outside the Top 5 and potentially the Top 10 in ownership at the running back position. I get people's angst as the Patriots love their stable of running backs and will give touches to four of them consistently. What I like here is that Harris looks to be the guy who is going to carry the load, at least early on and while the pats ended up with a disappointing loss to Miami in week one, Harris looked terrific rushing for 100 yards on 23 carries. He now faces a Jets defense that gave up 180+ scrimmage yards to running backs in week one against Carolina.
The Patriots are huge 12.5 point favorites in this one so if you are playing Harris, I love the correlation with their defense as well. They only tallied two sacks in week one but face a Jets team that gave up six and ended last season with the third-highest adjusted sack rate in the NFL(via Fantasy Outsiders). I feel the defense can easily tally multiple sacks here and should have opportunities for turnovers against a rookie QB which will in turn create short fields and scoring opportunities for the offense and Harris.
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