Houston Astros' Alex Bregman follows through as he watches his solo home run off Minnesota Twin pitcher Jose Berrios in the first inning of a baseball game Thursday, May 2, 2019, in Minneapolis. (AP Photo/Jim One)
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Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 46.37 DK - 25.64
The slates between FanDuel and DraftKings are a little different today, meaning some of the choices aren’t available on both. Wheeler is only on the FanDuel main slate, but is a clear play there for the evening. He is a -205 favorite at home against the Rockies who, of course, are much, much worse at the plate outside the confines of Coors Field. Wheeler has had an excellent season, striking out more than 10 batters per nine with crazy-good efficiency at a 5.4 K:BB ratio. He is expensive, sure, but is one of the best arms in baseball. This is an easy play on FanDuel.
Opponent - MIA (Elieser Hernandez) Park - MIA
FD - 40.38 DK - 22.44
Morton is on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is efficiently priced on both sites. He gets to face off against the lowly Marlins who rank 28th in team batting wOBA on the season and strike out 26% of the time. Morton has some of the best-implied win odds as a -255 home favorite. He is a solid combination of swing and miss stuff while also inducing a bunch of ground balls. I suspect he is the chalk on DraftKings considering the player pool there. The $8K price is simply too cheap and the matchup is too good.
Opponent - LAA (José Suarez) Park - LAA
FD - 13.84 DK - 10.62
The Astros are going to be a popular stack on Saturday facing off against Jose Suarez. Gurriel should be in the middle of the lineup against the lefty and is a very tough out in, putting the ball in play close to 80% of the time with a .383 OBP. He doesn’t have a ton of power but keeps the floor high because of the 11% strikeout rate. He is a little expensive on DraftKings over $5K but the FanDuel price is way too cheap.
Opponent - MIN (Michael Pineda) Park - MIN
FD - 9.99 DK - 7.44
Santana has moved down the order some but is coming very cheap on DraftKings especially. Even hitting sixth, the DK price is near the minimum though it is for a reason. The OPS is below .700 for the season though some of that is BABIP related. He still has a 12% walk rate and has 19 home runs on the season. I am willing to roster him here based on the price which is simply too low even for the struggles.
Opponent - LAA (José Suarez) Park - LAA
FD - 14.38 DK - 11
While it isn’t the case this season, Altuve is much better against lefties for his career. In that split, he has an .876 OPS and 142 wRC+. He only strikes out 12% of the time and Suarez is going to have some real struggles here. The latter strikes out only eight batters per nine and has a below-average xFIP. I like the price on both sites and he should be a popular cash game play.
Opponent - KC (Brady Singer) Park - KC
FD - 11.09 DK - 8.71
Arraez is another contact guy, putting the ball in play around 80% of the time this season. It has the OPS in the mid-700s, getting on base 37% of the time. He has almost no power or speed, but hitting at the top of the Twins order is a good place to be considering his salary on both sites. Singer is such a below-average arm and the Twins are in a good spot here.
Opponent - LAA (José Suarez) Park - LAA
FD - 13.05 DK - 9.82
We aren’t done with the Astros yet and they are in line to be a full team stack on this slate. Correa is projected to hit cleanup facing off against the lefty, while not an elite hitter, is having a solid season with an .860 OPS and .369 wOBA. Over his career, Correa has an .862 OPS and 138 wRC+ against lefties for his career with the walks higher and the strikeouts lower in that platoon. Again, the DK price is up there but the Astros are in just too good of a spot.
Opponent - ARI (Humberto Castellanos) Park - ARI
FD - 10.64 DK - 8.12
The Mariners actually have one of the higher implied run totals on the slate facing off against Castellanos. Crawford should be hitting leadoff and is a fine fantasy option at these price points. The OPS is only around .700 but the plate appearance expectation is good enough considering the spot in the order. He is mostly her for the contact rate which is about 75% on the season.
Opponent - LAA (José Suarez) Park - LAA
FD - 15.42 DK - 11.48
This should round out our Astros stack with Bregman a fantastic value on DraftKings especially. The low-$4K price is just such a steal though it was based some on his struggles earlier in the season. Those are basically over now and the OPS has climbed into the low .800s as the season draws to a close. He has been completely elite against lefties for his career with an even 1.000 OPS and .415 wOBA. Those are some of the best numbers you will see and he is nearly a lock on both sites.
I like Bregman way more than the rest of the field at the position, and he is the clear lock for cash games at this point. I could be talked into Josh Donaldson (FD $3000 DK $5200) though again he is way behind Bregman.
Opponent - CLE (Zach Plesac) Park - CLE
FD - 14.42 DK - 10.82
Yelich has really struggled this season for sure, especially in the power department where he only has 20 home runs over his last 650 plate appearances. There are some levels of concern for the the guy who is only a couple of years removed from an MVP campaign. But I think we need to still ride with the historical performance to inform at least a little of what his expectation is and that would still have him as a value against Plesac.
Opponent - STL (Miles Mikolas) Park - STL
FD - 9.4 DK - 7.2
Naquin should be hitting second for the Reds today and is coming way too cheap on DraftKings. Sitting under $3K over there, this is a guy with a low .800s OPS, 19 home runs and even five steals on the season. The matchup against Mikolas isn’t completely ideal, but the latter doesn’t miss a lot of bats. We are getting Naquin at a total bargain considering his spot in the lineup on Saturday.
I think you can consider Yordan Alvarez (FD $3400 DK $5600) even on the wrong side of his split.
It is the same for Jorge Soler (FD $3400 DK $4100) who is worse against righties, but still hitting near the top of the Braves’ lineup.
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