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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday, 8/29/21
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This is one of my favorite slates in recent memory. One of the reasons I love it is because we have two pitchers that I absolutely adore. I actually thought these two would be the most expensive players on both sites, but both barely cracked the Top-5. That has lineup construction looking like a breeze, so let's go ahead and get into it!
Pitchers
Zack Greinke FD - P 9000 DK - SP 9300
Opponent - TEX (Taylor Hearn) Park - TEX
FD - 33.55 DK - 17.68
I was so excited when I saw that Greinke was below $10K on both sites. He was my top target coming in, and I absolutely love how the pricing played out. The biggest reason we like him is this tasty matchup, with Texas ranked dead-last in both OBP and wOBA. That makes them the worst lineup in baseball, and a stud like Greinke should have no problem slowing them down. We're talking about a righty with a 3.41 ERA and 1.11 WHIP, which is right on par with his amazing career averages. He actually went off in his one matchup with the Rangers, allowing four baserunners across seven sensational innings. Not to mention, ZG enters this matchup as a -210 favorite as well.
José Berríos FD - P 8500 DK - SP 9100
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - DET
FD - 35.53 DK - 19.56
Berrios has been bad the last two weeks, but we're going to chalk that up to a rough stretch. In his previous six starts before a three-game slide, Jose had a 2.54 ERA and 0.77 WHIP over his previous six outings. That's much more indicative of the stud we saw for most of the season, dropping at least 27 FanDuel points in each of those. The reason we believe he can bounce back to that player here is the matchup, with Detroit ranked 25th in wOBA and 27th in K rate. Berrios actually faced this lineup a month ago, striking out eight batters across seven impressive innings.
Ranger Suarez is a nice option with his sub-2.00 ERA if you're looking to go cheap at pitcher.
Catcher/First Base
Paul Goldschmidt FD - 1B 4000 DK - 1B 5800
Opponent - PIT (Wil Crowe) Park - PIT
FD - 11.92 DK - 8.96
The Cardinals are fighting for their lives to stay in the playoff hunt, and Goldy is doing all he can to carry them on his shoulders. Over his last 22 games played, Paul has provided a .386 AVG, .440 OBP, .648 SLG, and 1.088 OPS. That's the stud we saw in Arizona, and it'd be no surprise to see him play like an MVP for the final month of the season. What adds to his intrigue is the fact that he gets a matchup with Wil Crowe. The Pittsburgh righty has a 5.80 ERA and 1.65 WHIP since the middle of May, which is sadly better than his horrific career averages. Don't be afraid to stack the Cards and use Goldy at the heart of it.
Rowdy Tellez FD - 1B 2600 DK - 1B 2500
Opponent - MIN (Griffin Jax) Park - MIN
FD - 11.12 DK - 8.37
We always love pivoting to Rowdy when we need a cheap bat. The simple fact is, Tellez should be $1,000 more on each site the way he abuses right-handed pitching. Since 2019, Rowdy has registered a .289 AVG, .487 SLG, and .823 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. Those are miraculous numbers from a guy who's flirting with a minimum price, and it's a wonder why he remains so cheap. That usually earns him a prominent spot in this order, and we love that with Milwaukee projected for five runs. They have that inflated projection because they face Griffin Jax, with the Twinkies arm posting an ugly 6.29 ERA.
While we like Ranger, we also think Carson Kelly is a fantastic option against him from the right side behind his monster splits.
Second Base
José Altuve FD - 2B 4200 DK - 2B 6200
Opponent - TEX (Taylor Hearn) Park - TEX
FD - 14.71 DK - 11.26
Altuve was mired in a miserable slump this time two weeks back, but he's starting to turn it around. The little man is actually hitting .314 over his last 11 games, collecting six extra-base hits in that span. That's great news since he ranks second among all second baseman with 9.2 DK points per game, earning him this ridiculous price tag. The reason we're willing to pay it today is the matchup, with Taylor Hearn honing a 1.33 WHIP as a reliever this year. That means it's going to be tough for Hearn to slow these guys down, especially with Altuve flirting with a .400 OBP against lefties throughout his career.
Tommy Edman FD - 2B 3000 DK - 2B 4200
Opponent - PIT (Wil Crowe) Park - PIT
FD - 10.72 DK - 8.34
One of the reasons Goldy is playing so well is because St. Louis decided to move Edman to their leadoff spot. That has allowed Tommy to total a .301 AVG, .361 OBP, .474 SLG, and .834 OPS since July 20. That looks even better when you see his ability to swipe a bag or two, making him a monster at the top of this lineup. We love all of that since St. Louis has such a tempting matchup, projected for more than five runs in this spot. If they play well, Edman will be the table-setter.
Shortstop
Bo Bichette FD - SS 3600 DK - SS 4800
Opponent - DET (Matthew Boyd) Park - DET
FD - 13.68 DK - 10.5
Bo is in the midst of a small slump right now, but it's lowered his price just enough for us to hop on the train. We're still talking about one of the best fantasy producers in fantasy, with Bichette ranked second at the position with 9.1 DK points per game. The counting numbers speak for themselves, with Bichette tallying 20 homers, 79 RBI, 94 runs scored, and 20 steals. We believe he can add to those here, with Matt Boyd making his first start in three months for the Tigers. That gives Bichette the platoon advantage from the right side, with Bo belting a .891 OPS against lefties since his call-up.
Carlos Correa FD - SS 4000 DK - SS 5000
Opponent - TEX (Taylor Hearn) Park - TEX
FD - 12.97 DK - 9.76
We already talked a bit about how we like Altuve, but the Astros are just starting to stream in. We're talking about a team that sits Top-5 in nearly every offensive metric facing a pitcher that hasn't proved himself one bit. That's why they have such a high projection and why all of these righties are so alluring. Correa has actually been one of the best hitters all season, averaging 8.5 DK points per game. He's been even better against lefties, amassing a .393 OBP against lefties since 2019. We love that with Correa compiling a 1.021 OPS over his last 12 games played.
Third Base
Alex Bregman FD - 3B 3600 DK - 3B 5200
Opponent - TEX (Taylor Hearn) Park - TEX
FD - 14.18 DK - 10.56
Bregman is the final piece to the Stros stack, and he might be the best value of the bunch. The one reason his price is this low is that he just returned from injury, but we're talking about one of the best bats in baseball. In fact, Bregman has a .379 OBP, .512 SLG, and .891 OPS for his career. That's scary since he's been even better against southpaws, slinging a 1.083 OPS against them since 2019. That makes this pricing hard to believe, and it makes Bregman hard to avoid in the midst of this stack.
Eugenio Suárez FD - 3B 3000 DK - 3B 3600
Opponent - MIA (Jesús Luzardo) Park - MIA
FD - 8.94 DK - 6.64
It's possible that Suarez might not even be in the lineup, but we're going to take a risk here. The two reasons we believe he'll be in there is because it's a Sunday and because they get to face a lefty. Suarez has limped his way to a dreadful .171 AVG this season, but a matchup with a bad lefty might be the way to get him going. Luzardo has been beyond bad for Miami, generating a 10.72 ERA and 2.25 WHIP since joining them. That puts a lot of these Reds righties in play, especially one this cheap. Suarez has definitely earned this price tag, but a guy with a .488 SLG since 2017 definitely has the ability to go off in the right matchup.
Outfield
Juan Soto FD - OF 4400 DK - OF 5500
Opponent - NYM (Tylor Megill) Park - NYM
FD - 12.06 DK - 9.03
The Nationals are pretty poor, but it's overshadowing just how special Soto has been in the second half. Over his last 28 games played, Soto has a .500 OBP, .506 SLG, and 1.006 OPS. That .500 OBP is a truly shocking number, and it makes him a brilliant option no matter the matchup. Squaring off with Tylor Megill is a good way to add to those averages, with the Mets righty allowing 11 hits and seven runs in his most recent outing. That's even scarier with Soto accumulating a .449 OBP and 1.018 OPS against right-handers since 2019.
Austin Meadows FD - OF 3300 DK - OF 4900
Opponent - BAL (Spenser Watkins) Park - BAL
FD - 14.03 DK - 10.64
It's always tough to know which Rays to ride, but we want to use all of them here. They get a matchup with Spenser Watkins, who's stumbled his way into a 7.07 ERA and 1.64 WHIP. That has Tampa as one of the best stacks of the day, with Meadows being the best option on the team. We say that because he's rolled against righties all year, registering a .902 OPS against them. That's all you can hope for, especially with Meadows sitting at just $3,300 on FanDuel.
Byron Buxton FD - OF 3700 DK - OF 2700
Opponent - MIL (Aaron Ashby) Park - MIN
FD - 12.04 DK - 9.16
It looks like DraftKings forgot that Buxton is back. That alone makes him one of the best values of the day, priced around guys that aren't even in the Majors. Buxton has been oft-injured all year, but he's been a stud when he's been in the lineup. In fact, BB leads all outfielders on this slate with 11.7 DK points per game. That's higher than guys like Ronald Acuna, Fernando Tatis, and Vladimir Guerrero! That means we need to pick him when DK makes a mistake, and we're certainly not worried about an unknown arm like Aaron Ashby.
