DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 8/17/21 - Main slate

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Pitchers

Corbin Burnes FD 11500 DK 10200
Opponent - STL (Adam Wainwright) Park - STL
FD - 46.44 DK - 26.8

Corbin Burnes has been one of the best pitchers in the league this season and has been a serious Cy Young candidate. He is also coming off his best game of the season, which is really saying something when he struck out 15 batters over eight scoreless innings. That puts him at a 36% K% for the season and a ridiculous 8.2:1 K:BB ratio. These are simply some of the best numbers you will ever see from a starting pitcher. He faces off against the Cardinals on Tuesday, which isn’t the best matchup, but he is just so far and away the best arm that he is easily the top option on the slate.

Alek Manoah FD 9900 DK 8600
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 35.79 DK - 19.69

Manoah is an interesting case this season. On the one hand, he isn’t as good as the 2.59 xFIP would suggest with the ERA sitting almost 1.5 runs higher at 3.91. But on the other hand, this is a guy who is striking out almost 11 batters per nine. The K% is only 26% so he doesn’t just miss bats, but has K upside for sure. I like the matchup against Washington who is working with a much weaker team after the trade deadline.

Catcher/First Base

Max Muncy FD 3600 DK 5400
Opponent - PIT (Wil Crowe) Park - PIT
FD - 15.77 DK - 11.62

Things might get a bit tricky today with wanting to pay up for Burnes at pitcher, but with some expensive bats in good spots as well. The Dodgers are one such team, facing off against the righty Will Crowe on this slate. Muncy is one of the best bats in the league, sporting a .964 OPS on the season, striking out only 18% of the time, taking a ton of walks, and racking up 26 home runs. From a cash game perspective, this is nearly the perfect profile, only lacking speed but that would just be gilding the lily. He is a better deal on FanDuel for sure where it might not be a total stretch to fit him in.

Yuli Gurriel FD 3100 DK 5100
Opponent - KC (Daniel Lynch) Park - KC
FD - 14.51 DK - 11.13

He has moved down the order some for the Astros which cuts into the expectation some. But he is still coming very cheap on FanDuel for a guy who doesn't strike out all that often and has some power upside as well. This is a FanDuel-only play I think considering the DraftKings price is a little out of bounds especially if he is hitting 6th in the order. 

Second Base

José Altuve FD 3700 DK 5400
Opponent - KC (Daniel Lynch) Park - KC
FD - 14.64 DK - 11.2

Altuve has had a full bounce-back season this time around, swatting 25 home runs already and bringing in a mid-800s OPS. He remains one of the toughest outs in the game, putting the ball in play about 75% of the time. And he has been much better against lefties for his career with a 142 wRC+, .377 wOBA, and .879 OPS in that split, all considerably higher than what he has done against righties. The FanDuel price is still a bargain considering what he brings to the table in this matchup.

Jonathan India FD 3700 DK 4500
Opponent - CHC (Kyle Hendricks) Park - CHC
FD - 12.05 DK - 9.23

After running hot on ERA last season, Kyle Hendricks has come back to reality this season with a mid-4’s xFIP and a sub-7K’s per nine strikeout rate. Meanwhile, India has become one of the better leadoff hitters in the game. He brings in a .396 OBP and also has a solid power-speed combo with 16 home runs and eight stolen bases. For the mid-$4K DraftKings price you are getting a super high floor hitter at a reasonable rate. If you go mid-tier with starting pitching after Burnes, it should be no problem fitting the salary.

Shortstop

Trea Turner FD 3900 DK 5000
Opponent - PIT (Wil Crowe) Park - PIT
FD - 16.62 DK - 12.79

Corey Seager FD 3200 DK 4600
Opponent - PIT (Wil Crowe) Park - PIT
FD - 15.09 DK - 11.39

We get both of these guys qualifying at shortstop on this slate and they should hit leadoff and cleanup respectively in the order. Turner, coming over from the Nationals at the trade deadline has the power-speed combination you dream about with 18 home runs and 23 stolen bases on the season. He is tough to put down on strikes and Will Crowe could be in for some real trouble especially at the top of this lineup.

Then there is Seager who should be in the fourth slot and is also a very tough out. The power hasn’t come around for him this year which is disappointing, but he gets on base 36% of the time and is running a bit rough on the Hr/FB% despite the hard contact rate being relatively in line with his career numbers. There is a chance we are buying a little low on moderate power upside still.

Third Base

Josh Donaldson FD 3000 DK 3500
Opponent - CLE (Eli Morgan) Park - CLE
FD - 13.05 DK - 9.66

This is the worse side of Donaldson’s split for sure, but he is still coming way too cheap on both sites, DraftKings especially. At $3500 he helps fit in some of the Burnes salary over there without giving all that much away in expectation. On the season, Donaldson has 16 home runs and a .822 OPS thanks to a 15% walk rate and the ability to keep the strikeouts in check. The batted ball profile still looks very good for the 35-year-old and the righty Morgan has a 5.01 xFIP over almost 50 innings this season.

Eugenio Suárez FD 3100 DK 3500
Opponent - CHC (Kyle Hendricks) Park - CHC
FD - 11 DK - 8.17

I don’t love the platoon split here, but I do like the DraftKings price. Again, we are going to need to find some ways to save with Burnes eating up a lot of the salary cap and Suarez has just enough power upside to warrant consideration. Despite the low-600 OPS, this guy still has 23 home runs on the season, which is actually pretty darn hard to do.

Outfield

Tyler Naquin FD 2800 DK 2300
Opponent - CHC (Kyle Hendricks) Park - CHC
FD - 11.47 DK - 8.79

With some Reds’ injuries, we cold see Naquin in the second-spot in the lineup. If that was the case he would be a near-lock as a DraftKings play considering he is coming close to the minimum on that site. He is cheap on FanDuel as well and facing off against Hendricks is just a fine spot. He has 14 home runs and five stolen bases on the season with a mid-700s OPS. All of that plays great at these near-punt prices.

Randy Arozarena FD 3900 DK 4200
Opponent - BAL (John Means) Park - BAL
FD - 13.28 DK - 10.11

Arozarena was a scratch the other day so we will need to monitor his status going into this game, but if he is in the leadoff slot against the lefty Means then I think we can consider him. He has pulled the OPS up an over .800 on the season and has 16 home runs and 11 stolen bases. He has been much better against lefties over his short career with a 161 wRC+ and .954 OPS in that split. And after struggling some to start the season, he has pulled it back together of late with six home runs over his last 100 or so plate appearances.

Some cheap OF options on this slate to fit the pitching could be Chas McCormick (FD $2300 DK $2400), Shogo Akiyama (FD $2000 DK $2000) or even Billy McKinney (FD $2200 DK $2100).