San Diego Padres starting pitcher Joe Musgrove works against a Milwaukee Brewers batter during the first inning of a baseball game Monday, April 19, 2021, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
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Opponent - ARI (Tyler Gilbert) Park - ARI
FD - 37.31 DK - 20.84
There have been some ups and downs, but for the most part Musgrove has had an excellent season with the Padres. He is sporting a 3.45 xFIP and striking out more than 10 batters per nine. That walks have stayed in check and now he gets an Arizona team that is one of the weaker offenses in baseball. This lines up for him to be a strong cash play on the main slate of games with the one caveat being we are waiting for some odds on a couple of the other games.
Opponent - NYY (Jameson Taillon) Park - NYY
FD - 35.46 DK - 18.8
Cease gets a terrible matchup against the Yankees in this one, but it is also tough to ignore just what the guy has done on the mound this season. He is striking out close to 12 batter per nine on the year, representing an unbelievable jump year-over-year. One big change has been going back to the curveball, something he through a lot more in 2019 when the K rate was higher. You are buying the most potential Ks on the cheap here with the understanding that the matchup is a real tough one.
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 10.21 DK - 7.87
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 12.63 DK - 9.54
the Giants face off against the lefty Kyle Freeland here on Saturday evening and you have a chance to stack these two guys who will likely be hitting 2-3 in the order. Posey is having a turn-bask-the-clock season for sure, one of his best campaigns in the last decade. It has been a major surprise and he’s crushed the ball all season. He has a .981 OPS which would mark the best of his career if the season finished today. That’s thanks in part to a career-best 14% walk rate and there has been some luck involved as well with a .377 BABIP. In all, facing off against a low-K Freeland, this is a good spot.
Then there is Ruf who should be hitting cleanup here and has been great in his own right. He owns a .936 OPS and has tagged lefty pitching for his career so far. He has a whopping 152 wRC+ and .395 wOBA in that split. That is over more than 400 plate appearances and it is very much looking like a real number. He and Posey make and awesome 1-2 punch in stacking and you can try to fit in Kris Bryant as well.
Opponent - LAA (Jaime Barria) Park - LAA
FD - 14.03 DK - 10.73
The Astros are in a great spot against Barria here on Saturday evening. They have one of the higher implied run lines of the slate and face off against a pitcher who has been downright terrible this season. We will get to him more later, but rest assured Barria’s 25 IP have been about as bad as possible. Altuve has the OPS back in the mid-800s and remains very tough to K at 15% while drawing the most walks of his career. It is a near certainty he will have the ball in play here or at least take a free pass. And the 25 home runs have him almost to his career-high power numbers.
Opponent - STL (Jon Lester) Park - STL
FD - 13.02 DK - 10.14
The wheels have fallen all the way off for Jon Lester and he has some of the worst numbers in the majors that you will see from a guy taking the mound every five days or so. He is striking out fewer than six batters per nine and has an xFIP well over 5.00. Merrifield is almost certain to put the ball in play here with an 80% contact rate on the season. And once he’s on base he is almost always off to second with 33 stolen bases already on the season.
Opponent - LAA (Jaime Barria) Park - LAA
FD - 12.25 DK - 9.21
Stacking the top four batters in the Astros’ lineup is probably going to be the play here and Correa has moved up to the third slot in the order with Gurriel out of the mix. Correa is another patient Houston bat who should be able to capitalize on Barria’s lack of swing and miss stuff. The latter is putting down batters only 12% of the time this season. Correa has been a patient hitter, walking a career-high 12.6% of the time, striking out less than 20% and putting up an OPS in the mid-800s. He is completely mispriced on DraftKings.
I think Correa is far and away the best play at shortstop today and will be part of all Astros’ stacks. If you want to pivot to Trea Turner (FD $4000 DK $5800) or Corey Seager (FD $3200 DK $4600) that is fine too with the Dodgers in an okay spot.
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 12.71 DK - 9.53
He is getting expensive, but it is for good reason and he should be hitting second for the Giants against the lefty Freeland on Saturday. Bryant came over in the trade from the Cubs at the deadline and has put up solid numbers on the season all things considered. He is getting on base 36% of the time and has a .227 ISO. He has been much better against lefties for his career and this is a solid spot against the soft-tossing, but grounder-inducing Freeland.
Opponent - TB (Michael Wacha) Park - TB
FD - 12.35 DK - 9.15
The Twins sold off some pieces at the trade deadline, but Donaldson remained. He is coming a little too cheap on both sites despite facing off against the righty Wacha on the worse side of his split. The sub-$4K number on on DraftKings is particularly attractive and this is still a g guy who in his age-35 season has an OPS over .800 and 16 home runs on the season.
Opponent - LAA (Jaime Barria) Park - LAA
FD - 14.78 DK - 11.02
Opponent - LAA (Jaime Barria) Park - LAA
FD - 12.51 DK - 9.58
Speaking of Houston bats who are much too cheap on DraftKings, these two dudes are fantastic value plays. Alvarez has a .870 OPS on the season with 22 home runs. The Ks are a moderate concern, but not against Barria so we aren’t worried about it. There is plenty of power upside here and he is a value on both sites, even FanDuel where the price is elevated.
Meanwhile, Brantley is just still too cheap on DraftKings which has been the theme basically all season long. He is a near-lock to have the ball in play here, making contact 82% of the time. Brantley doesn’t have much power or speed, but he is on base 38% of the time this season which is among the best in the league.
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 12.21 DK - 9.31
Slater should be hitting leadoff for San Fran on Saturday and he is coming cheap on both sites. He doesn’t profile as a typical leadoff hitter considering the walk rate isn’t that high, but he has been way better against lefties for his career. With a 125 wRC+ and .832 OPS this is the slot to grab him and his price is kept down because he is so darn bard against righties. It is worth noting too that his OPB climbs all the way to .372 when facing southpaws.
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