Webb Simpson watches his tee shot on the sixth hole during the third round of the Dean & DeLuca Invitational golf tournament at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, Saturday, May 27, 2017. (AP Photo/LM Otero)
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With all four major championships, the Olympic event, and the WGC events out of the way, the FedEx Cup Playoffs are now the center of attention. Before the three-event playoff begins there is one more opportunity for those outside the Top 125 to get in and that takes the Tour to Sedgefield Country Club for the Wyndham Championship.
With so many of the big names and top players in the world coming off busy summer schedules and already locked into the playoffs, we have a somewhat weaker field this week. The narrative is strong for those around the cutline so let's take a look at a few players right around the bubble:
From a DFS perspective, this event is a birdie fest with a winning score of -21 or lower in five straight years. In terms of distance(7,131 yards), the course is on the shorter side of things and like last week has a lack of straight holes which often forces placement and accuracy off the tee which is why we see a lot of less-than-driver. Looking at past leaderboards and correlation data, it shows that accuracy is much more important than distance this week.
Hitting a ton of greens isn't necessarily going to get it done this week either. Sedgefield CC has one of the highest GIR rates on Tour year in and year out so I will be looking at not only Strokes Gained: Approach but also Fairway Proximity, mid-iron Proximity(125-150 & 150-175), and overall Proximity. Then it will come down to who has the hottest putter.
Sedgefield Country Club
Par 70 - 7,131 Yards
Greens - Bermuda
Top Stats in the Model
Strokes Gained: Approach
Like I mentioned above, it will take more than just a bunch of GIR's this week so I will be looking at a collection of approach stats in my model. the biggest weight will obviously be on SG: Approach itself but I will also mix in Fairway Proximity with an increase of less-than-driver off the tee and more fairways hit than average. I will also mix in Proximity from the 150-175 yard range as a whopping 28% of approach shots come from that range(via Fantasy National Golf Club).
Birdie or Better %
This one is high in my model every week but I also increase the weight in these birdie fests. For reference on my sheet, the stats reflect 95% current season stats with a mix of 5% on last season. For a more current look at stats form I use FNGC and look at last 8, 12, 24 rounds data, as well.
Par 4 Scoring
There are only two par 5's and both are reachable in two shots by almost the entire field which means it will be hard to separate yourself from the field unless you eagle both all four days(LOL). Instead, I will be looking at players who trend on the Par 4's as those are more likely to be the players we see on the leaderboard come Sunday.
With all that said, let's dig into this week's picks!
Webb Simpson
World Golf Ranking (#19)
Vegas Odds (12/1)
Draftkings ($10,600)
FanDuel ($12,100)
Some call this the "Webb Simpson Open" and for good reason as no one has anywhere near the course history here at Sedgefield CC. While he has only won here once and back in 2011, he has finished T11 or better seven times in nine trips since which includes four straight finishes of T3 or better. He is also starting to find his form with back to back Top 20 finishes at The Open and WGC St. Jude and as the 3rd most expensive golfer on DraftKings, has a high PTS/$ floor for cash games combined with a high ceiling for GPP formats.
Hideki Matsuyama
World Golf Ranking (#17)
Vegas Odds (14/1)
Draftkings ($11,000)
FanDuel ($11,900)
Whether you are looking to pivot off super chalky Webb or just looking for a solid play who checks all the boxes, Matsuyama should be at the top of your list in this weaker field. Sure, he doesn't have the elite course history Webb brings to Sedgefield CC but he does have three Top 15 finishes including a T3 in six trips so the upside is there. The form is also trending in a big way as he is coming of a T4 at the Olympics and followed that up with a T2 at the WGC St Jude last week. I won't be going here in cash games but will be higher than the field on Matsuyama in GPP formats.
Mito Pereira
World Golf Ranking (#105)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,900)
FanDuel ($9,500)
The PGA Tour sample size has been small but Pereira has really impressed making four of five cuts in 2021 including two Top 10's(Barbasol Champ & 3M Open) and also added a T4 and just missed medaling for Chile at the Olympics in Tokyo. He has already earned his 2021-22 card with three wins on the Korn Ferry Tour and while he is back in 177th in the FedEx Cup ranks, there is an outside chance he can make the playoffs with a Top 2 finish. If he continues this terrific tee to green play, I like his chances to be on the leaderboard Sunday afternoon. At these prices, that would give him a tremendous PTS/$ return and I also like betting him as outright, Top 5, and Top 10.
Brandt Snedeker
World Golf Ranking (#137)
Vegas Odds (55/1)
Draftkings ($7,900)
FanDuel ($9,800)
Back on the course history train here in the mid-range with Sneds. The last two trips haven't been great(T42, T39) but he won the event in 2018 and also finished Top 5 in 2014 and 2016 and is 4th in Strokes Gained: Total here over the last 50 rounds. The form is also trending as he has made nine of his last 10 cuts including a T11 in his last event at the 3M Open. All things considered, I love the safety and upside making him one of my favorite plays in all formats this week.
Ryan Armour
World Golf Ranking (#201)
Vegas Odds (110/1)
Draftkings ($7,000)
FanDuel ($8,500)
The only player who I feel has a chance to hit the same level of ownership s Webb would be Ryan Armour. He checks almost every single box starting with course history as he returns to Sedgefield CC with four straight Top 25 finishes including Top 10's in 2017 and 2018. On top of that, he also comes in with trending form with a T5 at the Barbasol and T6 at the 3M Open. It mainly comes down to price, however, as he is just $7K on DraftKings which mixes in nicely with a stars and scrubs build getting two top-tier players in your lineup.
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