DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 8/4/21 - Main slate

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Pitchers

Lucas Giolito FD 9200 DK 10600
Opponent - KC (Carlos Hernández) Park - KC
FD - 40.6 DK - 22.02

There are a couple of ace-level pitchers going on this slate making for some interesting decisions about where to spend on arms. Giolito is a -245 home favorite against the Royals who rank 26th in team wOBA this season. They don’t strike out a ton, but they are a weak-hitting bunch. Meanwhile, while the K stuff is down a little bit this season he is still one of the better arms in the game, striking out about 10.5 batters per nine and walking fewer than three. I like the FanDuel price point especially and he has some of the best win odds on the slate.

Shohei Ohtani FD - P 10700 DK - SP 9500
Opponent - TEX (Kolby Allard) Park - TEX
FD - 40.03 DK - 21.39

What can you say about the season Ohtani has had? It has simply been amazing with the only real negative being that the Angels have struggled and Mike Trout hasn’t been around all that much to see if because of injury. While the 3.05 is running better than his 3.65 xFIP, this is still a guy striking out close to 12 batters per nine on the year. He faces the Rangers on the road as a -155 favorite with a 8 o/u. Texas sold off its biggest bat at the deadline and this is a compromised lineup, to say the least. Have to love Ohtani on this main slate.

Jameson Taillon FD - P 8000 DK - SP 10200
Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - NYY
FD - 35.42 DK - 18.72

He is pitching in Yankee Stadium which isn’t all that great considering the short porch in right field, but he comes in as a great, -205 money line favorite against the Orioles in this one. Taillon has put down almost a batter an inning on strikes and kept the walks mostly under control. Baltimore is a bottom-third offense on the season while striking out 24% of the time as a team. I like Taillon as a DraftKings SP2 here.

Lucas Giolito (FD $9200 DK $10600)

Catcher/First Base

Gary Sánchez FD 2800 DK 4400
Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - BAL
FD - 13.64 DK - 10.07

Sanchez has a FanDuel price that just remains too cheap for his skill set and hitting in this Yankee lineup which is just a murderers row at this point. You would like to see the 28% K% come down some, but facing an arm like Matt Harvey can help with that. The latter is putting down fewer than seven batters per nine and has a 4.70 xFIP. There is a reason the run line for the Yankees is so high.

C.J. Cron FD 3800 DK 4000
Opponent - CHC (Alec Mills) Park - CHC
FD - 14.21 DK - 10.71 A lot of these bats are going to look similar to yesterday because the Yankees and the Rockies are again almost head and shoulders above everyone else in terms of expectation. Cron hits a little lower in the lineup than I would like, but you are going to have to pay up at 1B regardless on this slate and his is just a little cheaper than some of the elite bats at the position. He has an .800 OPS on the season and still gets a chance to hit in Coors against a weaker arm in Alec Mills. The Rockies, as a team, are another great stack.

Second Base

Brendan Rodgers FD - 2B 3300 DK - 2B 3500
Opponent - CHC (Alec Mills) Park - COL
FD - 13.02 DK - 10.02

The Rockies, once again, have the highest implied run line on the slate thanks to hitting against a weaker arm in Coors Field. Rodgers should be in the second slot in the lineup again, a place he appears pretty locked into at this point. He has some power, but not tons with the upside on his bat around the place where he actually gets to hit.

DJ LeMahieu FD 3000 DK 5000
Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - BAL
FD - 14.33 DK - 11.07

LeMahieu continues the run on the Yankees and it won’t stop with him either. He hasn’t gotten back to the OPS numbers he put up in his first two seasons with the Yankees and is hovering around the .700 mark right now. Some of that is his BABIP sitting 40-50 points lower than what he did over the two previous seasons. But there are also some hard contact concerns as well. I still like him hitting leadoff and especially for the FanDuel price.

Shortstop

Trevor Story FD 4200 DK 5200
Opponent - CHC (Alec Mills) Park - CHC
FD - 15.45 DK - 11.74

Look, it is tough to fade Coors in these situations even with the elevated price points. Story is expensive for a reason though and from a fantasy perspective, he is one of the elite bats in the game. While the OPS is only in the mid-700s range, representing a dramatic dip from previous seasons, he has kept the fantasy floor higher with his speed on the base paths. His 17 stolen bases have him on pace for the best number of his career. And he has 13 home runs as well. This is a great pay up once again.

Corey Seager FD 3000 DK 4600
Opponent - HOU (Jake Odorizzi) Park - HOU
FD - 12.92 DK - 9.75

Seager will move down the lineup a bit with Mookie Betts returning, but this is still a very potent order than can sustain hitters in this price range a little lower down the chain. Seager has dealt with injuries this season and has missed a bunch of time, but when he is on, like last season he is among the best hitters in the game. The FanDuel price point is simply too low if he is anywhere around the middle of the lineup for the Dodgers.

Third Base

Ryan McMahon FD 3900 DK 3600
Opponent - CHC (Alec Mills) Park - CHC
FD - 12.45 DK - 9.43

McMahon hit a little lower in the order on Tuesday than I would have liked, but I think there is a chance he moves back up to the fifth slot on Wednesday. He has an OPS right around .800 and the 17 home runs on the season show the power upside. He isn’t the most patient hitter, but he isn’t a strikeout machine either.

David Bote FD 3000 DK 2600
Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - COL
FD - 10.33 DK - 7.77

A couple of these Cubs bats are mispriced hitting in Coors even if they are no longer one of the more dynamic offenses in baseball. After shipping off Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez at the trade deadline, guys like Bote have had the chance to move way up in the lineup. He should hit third against Gray here. He is a better hitter than his low-600s OPS would suggest and this is one of the reasons we are getting him on the super cheap on FanDuel.

Outfield

Raimel Tapia FD - OF 3200 DK - OF 3700
Opponent - CHC (Alec Mills) Park - COL
FD - 12.94 DK - 10.15

Charlie Blackmon FD - OF 3400 DK - OF 4100
Opponent - CHC (Alec Mills) Park - COL
FD - 14.39 DK - 11.01

Tapia returned to the top of the lineup on Monday and should be set to go there again on Tuesday against the righty Mills. The latter is a slightly below-average arm who strikes out fewer than seven batters per nine and brings in a 4.23 xFIP. Tapia brings in a ton of speed as his fantasy upside with 19 stolen bases on the season and is able to get on base around 34% of the time. Facing off against a soft-tossing righty has him as an upside play especially if the Rockies are able to put up runs.

Meanwhile, we had Blackmon as a core play on Monday and will be going back to the well against on Tuesday evening. As we said, the power has been mostly absent over the last couple of years, and he is struggling to get lift on the ball more than ever. But this is still Coors we are talking about and with an implied run line significantly higher here than anywhere else, it is still fine to play him.

Rafael Ortega FD 3700 DK 2500
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 10.15 DK - 7.86

Ortega is coming way too cheap on DraftKings considering he is hitting leadoff in Coors. Frankly, it just looks like a mistake in pricing and now it is for the second day in a row. He is punching well above his weight at the plate so far this season with an OPS over .900 thanks to a surprise six home runs and a BABIP that is a little run hot. But again, this is just too cheap of a price for the top spot in the best hitters park in baseball.

Aaron Judge (FD $3800 DK $4900) and Giancarlo Stanton (FD $3400 DK $4200) are easily in play again. We had them as the core plays on Wednesday and the Yankees more than delivered.