DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday 7/29/21 - Main Slate

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Pitchers

Freddy Peralta FD - P 9700 DK - SP 10000
Opponent - PIT (Chad Kuhl) Park - PIT
FD - 38.87 DK - 22.08

He was limited in his last start due to a prolonged break between starts but is expected back to full go on Thursday and is in a great spot. He has been extremely consistent all season holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 16 of 18 starts for an elite 2.29 ERA and added a ton of upside with a 35% K rate. He now faces a Pirates team that is dead last in runs scored, 27th in wOBA, and 28th in wRC+ on the season. Unless more news comes out about a limit, Peralta is my top pitcher on this main slate on both sites.

Joe Musgrove FD - P 8400 DK - SP 8200
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - SD
FD - 35.86 DK - 19.44

After a shaky first start out of the ASB, Musgrove bounced back with his longest outing(6 IP) in a month and despite the low strikeout count(4) was still able to give us more than 2x and 4x returns on DraftKings and FanDuel. It has been a roller coaster ride and there are some red flags but I do like the price on this small slate given the matchup vs. the Rockies who are dead last in road offense by a wide margin. I will have exposure in all formats.

Catcher/First Base

Rowdy Tellez FD 2200 DK 2600
Opponent - PIT (Chad Kuhl) Park - PIT
FD - 10.72 DK - 8.06

First base is a bit of a mess tonight with Vladdy in a potential rain game in Boston and my other favorite in Jonathan Schoop is likely out with back tightness after being scratched last night. As of now, I will be going the value route and riding the hot hand in Rowdy Tellez who has hits in five straight including three multi-hit efforts and three home runs. The savings makes this a great option if you are paying up for pitching like me.

If you have the salary also consider: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.(TOR) if the rain goes away and the game is a full-go or Shohei Ohtani(LAA) who has heated back up with hits in five straight including three multi-hit efforts

Second Base

Kolten Wong FD - 2B 3000 DK - 2B 4200
Opponent - PIT (Chad Kuhl) Park - PIT
FD - 9.32 DK - 7.18

I love the matchup for the Brewers tonight who walk more than any team not named the Dodgers and face a pitcher in Chad Kuhl who walks nearly five batters per nine. That combo usually leads to value in the leadoff spot which leads us(no pun intended) to Wong who comes in with hits in nine straight since the All-Star break. Combine all that with a value price on both sites and you have a top PTS/$ play for all formats.

Adam Frazier FD 2800 DK 3400
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 10.79 DK - 8.35

Frazier was traded to the Padres earlier this week to be their everyday leadoff hitter and that means even against lefty. Not that we should be concerned as he enters the night with a .367 wOBA and 131 wRC+ against southpaws and overall, is having a career-year hitting .321 with a lofty .384 OBP. It really comes down to price as he is underpriced on both sites for his new role and team making this a great buy-low in all formats.

Shortstop

Willy Adames FD - SS 2900 DK - SS 4600
Opponent - PIT (Chad Kuhl) Park - PIT
FD - 9.47 DK - 7.22

If we are playing Wong at second, we have to considered Adames who hits right behind him right? I most definitely will be stacking them together as they are likely hitting 1-2 in front of newcomer Eduardo Escobar who was picked up in a trade yesterday. Since coming over to the Brewers himself back in late May, Adames is hitting .291 with a .391 wOBA and 145 wRC+. I will have exposure in all formats.

Fernando Tatis Jr. FD 4600 DK 5900
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 17.51 DK - 13.25

There is more than enough value, even on this small slate where we can spend up in a few spots and no better player to pay up for than Tatis. The matchup doesn't jump off the page as Freeland has been pretty good lately but the Padres are projected for 5+ runs and Tatis crushes lefties in his young career to the tune of a .410 wOBA and 159 wRC+. You could also say this is a bit of a buy-low as his price has dipped below $6k on DraftKings for the first time in a week(lol).

Third Base

Manny Machado FD 3900 DK 5100
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 14.13 DK - 10.64

Like I mentioned above, the Jays/Red Sox game has weather issues again which eliminates a lot of the top bats on the slate. This has me focusing on the Padres as a top team and if you can't quite get to Tatis in cash, Machado is a great alternative at a slightly cheaper price. He has been red-hot out of the break with hits in 10 of 11 games(.357 avg) with home runs and 11 RBI. I will be trying to fit as much of the Padres top of the lineup as possible in all formats.

Jeimer Candelario FD 2700 DK 4300
Opponent - BAL (Alexander Wells) Park - BAL
FD - 12.22 DK - 9.23

Not 100% whether Jonathan Schoop will be back but Vegas seems to think so as the Tigers lead all teams in implied runs at the time of writing this. Either way, I will have exposure to their bats which have been good against lefties. For Value, I like Candelario who has been en fuego since the break with hits in 11 of 13 games(.304 avg) with a .414 wOBA and 165 wRC+.

Outfield

Cedric Mullins FD 3100 DK 4900
Opponent - DET (Casey Mize) Park - DET
FD - 10.11 DK - 7.84

The outfield is a bit of a mess and will come down to the final weather report on the BOS/TOR game. For now, my favorite play is Cedric Mullins who has broken out in 2021 and comes into tonight hitting .318 with a .392 wOBA and 152 wRC+. He has also been red-hot in the short term entering the night with hits in seven straight including four multi-hit efforts. He provides a high floor and ceiling at this price making him a great play in all formats.

Akil Baddoo FD 3500 DK 3800
Opponent - BAL (Alexander Wells) Park - BAL
FD - 10.74 DK - 8.24

Let's finish things off with one more value play to help us pay up for pitching and multiple big bats. I never thought I would say this but we can't ignore the Tigers right now as they have been scorching hot leading all of baseball in run-scoring since the All-Star break. Akil Baddoo has been the everyday leadoff hitter since late June and has been playing great hitting .282 and comes in playing even better with hits in five straight including three multi-hit efforts. He isn't great in the lefty/lefty matchups but I do not expect Wells to pitch more than 3-4 innings and the O's have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Fire up Baddoo in all formats.

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