DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 7/16/21 - Main slate

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Pitchers

Robbie Ray FD 9800 DK 9300
Opponent - TEX (Jordan Lyles) Park - TEX
FD - 36.88 DK - 19.48

Robbie Ray is putting together the season the Arizona Diamondbacks dreamed about for all those years. They never got it and now he’s awesome with Toronto. On the season, Ray is striking out more than 11 batters per nine and has finally limited the walks to fewer than two free passes per nine. He has a career-best 3.15 xFIP which is right in line with his 3.13 ERA. He is a -225 home favorite against the Rangers on Friday, the best win odds on the slate by far.

Chris Bassitt FD 9900 DK 8500
Opponent - CLE (Eli Morgan) Park - CLE
FD - 40.31 DK - 22

Like Robbie Ray, Bassitt is having the best season of his career, striking out a batter an inning and going longer into games as well. He’s averaging more than six innings per start on the season. The 3.97 xFIP is a bit worse than his 3.28 ERA, but he’s still in a good spot against the Indians on Friday. The A’s are -190 home favorites with an 8 over/under. The implied runs against are about the best on the slate outside of the doubleheaders. This is a great spot to run Ray/ Bassitt on DraftKings.

Catcher/First Base

Cody Bellinger FD 4000 DK 5000
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 16.93 DK - 12.62

Max Muncy FD 4400 DK 5800
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 16.83 DK - 12.4

The Dodgers are going to be a popular stack on Friday with the return from the All-Star Break, and for very good reason. They are heading into Coors and facing Antonio Senzatela in the best matchup and park on the slate. Muncy should be in the second slot in the lineup for LA and is having another fantastic season. His .973 OBA is elite, walking (18%) more than he strikes out (17%) and cranking out 19 home runs already. You have to pay for him for sure, like all the Dodgers, but not paying out the nose for pitching helps here.

Meanwhile, Bellinger has really struggled so far this season with an OPS under .600, striking out at the highest rate of his career (27%). The more concerning number is the hard contact rate which is down to 30% off a career 43% number. But the Dodgers are committed to keeping him in the middle of the lineup, for now, and that makes him a dangerous bat in Coors.

Second Base

Luis Arraez FD 4000 DK 3200
Opponent - DET (José Ureña) Park - DET
FD - 10.79 DK - 8.48

The Twins are in a doubleheader on Friday which definitely lowers the run expectation because the evening game will only go seven innings. But Arraez is coming so, co cheap on DraftKings and hitting in the leadoff slot for the Twins. Even with the game set to go two innings fewer than normal, I’m still of the mind that we can play him here in this matchup. Check for lineup details because this is the second game and things can change, but at sub-$3K on DraftKings, he’s worth it to help fit some of the Coors bats.

Jake Cronenworth FD 2800 DK 4700
Opponent - WSH (Erick Fedde) Park - WSH
FD - 10.69 DK - 8.24

Croneworth has worked his way up near the top of the Padres’ lineup, projected to hit third on Friday against the righty Fedde. The former is very tough to strikeout and puts the ball in play 77% of the time this season. That’s helped to get him to around an .800 OPS and he already has 12 home runs on the season. There’s been dribs and drabs of speed on the base paths too with 12 stolen bases.

Shortstop

Bo Bichette FD 3600 DK 5600
Opponent - TEX (Jordan Lyles) Park - TEX
FD - 16.33 DK - 12.54

He’s expensive and not playing in Coors, but is still awesome from a fantasy perspective. On the season the 23-year-old has 16 home runs and 12 stolen bases with a low .800s OPS. The Jays will continue to hit him second in the lineup and will face-off against Jordan Lyles who is among the weaker arms going here. Lyles has an xFIP creeping around 5.00 while striking out only around seven batters per nine. The Blue Jays are all pretty expensive because the offense has been so good this season, but are still worth paying a premium for in this matchup.

Gleyber Torres FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - BOS (Martin Pérez) Park - BOS
FD - 10.63 DK - 8

If Gleyber Torres is hitting fifth (or higher) then I think we can take a shot with him on this slate. It’s been a struggle for the young shortstop this season for sure. The OPS is garbage and the hard contact is way, way down. But he gets a good matchup against the lefty Perez. Torres has been better against lefties for his career with a higher OPS and wOBA in that split. Again, the pain is real for Torres on the season, but the price is way down because of it. Here is to hoping there is a turnaround in the second half of the season.

Third Base

Justin Turner FD 3900 DK 5500
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 15.2 DK - 11.48 We are going to want to have as much of the top of the Dodgers’ order in this game as possible. It will cost a pretty penny, but could be totally worth it considering how high their implied run line is on this slate compared to the other teams out there. That’s Coors for ya. Senzatela is a ground ball pitcher, but that only goes so far in the higher altitudes. This is a smash spot for the Dodgers and Turner is still a fine enough price on FanDuel assuming he’s in the third spot in the order.

Taylor Ward (FD $2600 DK $2400) is a decent option on the cheap if he’s hitting anywhere around the top six spots in the Angels’ lineup. He’s especially cheap on DraftKings where that could really help/ matter on this slate.

Outfield

Mookie Betts FD 4300 DK 5500
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 18.64 DK - 14.04

Betts isn’t putting up quite the same numbers this season as he has in the past, but he’s still the guy we want to target in cash games for the Dodgers lineup. Hitting leadoff against a low-K pitcher is just where we want to grab him. He’s tough to strikeout in the best of circumstances and in this one is a favorite to have the ball in play a lot. He has 13 home runs and seven stolen bases on the season while running a little bad on the BABIP which is 30 points lower than his career average.

Alex Kirilloff FD 5000 DK 3700
Opponent - DET (José Ureña) Park - DET
FD - 10.4 DK - 8.06

On DraftKings, if you are looking for a cheaper option at 1B or in the outfield, then Kiriloff is coming at a pretty low price. He should be hitting in the fifth spot in the lineup for the Twins who face off against Jose Urena. The latter is among the worst regular starters in the league with a 5.21 xFIP on the season and while striking out just 14% of batters faced and walking 12%. Those are just terrible numbers and Kiriloff’s mid-.700s OPS plays fine in the matchup at these prices.

Both Tommy Pham (FD $2800 DK $4300) and Wil Myers (FD $2400 DK $3500) are coming really cheap on FanDuel with the former likely hitting in the leadoff slot again on this slate.