DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/10/21

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Pitchers

Afternoon

Lucas Giolito FD - P 9600 DK - SP 10300
Opponent - BAL (Thomas Eshelman) Park - BAL
FD - 36.26 DK - 19.76

Giolito has an xFIP more than half a run lower than his ERA (3.65) and is striking out almost 11 batters per nine on the season. He’s a -192 road favorite against the Orioles and I’m only a little concerned about the 10 over/under that opens here. That being said, he’s the best high-upside K guy on this slate.

Anthony DeSclafani FD - P 8200 DK - SP 9500
Opponent - WSH (Jon Lester) Park - SF
FD - 29.75 DK - 15.49

DeSclafani isn’t as good as the sub-3 ERA would suggest, but he’s still put together a very good season so far. He’s striking out about a batter an inning and has been able to keep the runs in check because he’s a fly ball pitcher in a huge pitchers park. He is allowing a 48% flyball rate which plays perfectly in San Francisco and comes into this game as a -180 home favorite against the Nationals. Pitching is on the weaker side for this slate.

Evening

Freddy Peralta FD - P 9900 DK - SP 9200
Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - MIL
FD - 42.29 DK - 24.23

Peralta is putting up huge strikeout numbers this season, putting down 12.5 batters per nine on the season. This isn’t a great matchup against the Reds who have a good offense, but he is still tough to pass up considering what he can get you for the upside. He’s a -190 home favorite here with an over/under of 9. The price isn’t reflective of what he can dial up with the strikeouts.

Walker Buehler FD - P 10400 DK - SP 9600
Opponent - ARI (Caleb Smith) Park - LAD
FD - 40.08 DK - 22.03

Buehler enters the evening slate as a -260 favorite against the Diamondbacks who are among the worst teams in the league on offense. They rank 26th in team wOBA this season and are striking out around 24% of the time. Buehler has seen the Ks dip a little bit this season down to about a strikeout an inning, but he is still rocking decent peripherals. The xFIP is about a run higher than the ERA but he is still a borderline ace. On the evening slate he is the best option.

Catcher/First Base

Afternoon

José Abreu FD - 1B 3500 DK - 1B 5600
Opponent - BAL (Thomas Eshelman) Park - BAL
FD - 14.15 DK - 10.71

You are going to see some White Sox on this list today because of the matchup against Thomas Eshelman who comes in not striking anyone out and just generally being one of the lower-tier arms in the league right now. Abreu isn’t repeating quite the same success at the plate he’s shown over the last couple of seasons but is still a middle-of-the-order bat on the team with the highest implied run total.

Evening

Anthony Rizzo FD - 1B 2700 DK - 1B 4000
Opponent - STL (Kwang Hyun Kim) Park - CHC
FD - 10.76 DK - 8.06

The Cubs’ offense has struggled this season, but is still in a good spot on Saturday evening against Kim who brings in a 4.56 xFIP and very low strikeout rate into the matchup. Rizzo has the OPS below .800 for the last two seasons which is a bit troubling, but his hard contact rate is in line with career numbers while the HR/FB rate is down. I think some of the power could return in the second half of the season. Patience should play well for him at these prices.

Second Base

Afternoon

Kike Hernández FD - 2B 3500 DK - 2B/OF 4800
Opponent - PHI (Matt Moore) Park - BOS
FD - 13.31 DK - 10.04

He should be hitting leadoff against the lefty Moore on Saturday and that’s a great spot for Hernandez who has comparatively torched this split for his career. He has an .818 OPS against lefties with a 119 wRC+ and .347 wOBA. He’s a little pricey on this slate, but it’s mostly because the Red Sox lineup is just so damn good and if he’s in the top spot he’s going to be hitting in front of some elite bats.

Evening

Luis Urías FD - 2B 2600 DK - 3B 4500
Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - MIL
FD - 9.6 DK - 7.32

Urias should be, once again, hitting leadoff for the Brewers on Saturday. He’s been a patient guy this season, walking more than 10% of the time while also adding some power with 12 home runs. That’s been good for a .760 OPS which is a solid number considering the FanDuel price. Coming sub-$3K has him as a straight value on that site against a weaker arm like Gutierrez who has a 5.40 xFIP this season.

Shortstop

Afternoon

Xander Bogaerts FD - SS 3600 DK - SS 5600
Opponent - PHI (Matt Moore) Park - BOS
FD - 15.61 DK - 11.82

Xander could be a very popular play on this slate, especially on FanDuel in the mid-3K range. He’s still sporting an OPS in the low-900s on the season and has been better against lefty pitching for his career. In that platoon, he has an .872 OPS and 134 wRC+. He walks more than 11% of the time and has a .374 wOBA. Matt Moore has really struggled this season with a whopping 5.36 xFIP through 27 innings. And it isn’t an aberration. He’s stunk for the last three years.

Evening

Willy Adames FD - SS 2700 DK - SS 4900
Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - MIL
FD - 9.65 DK - 7.35

The Brewers are still using Adames near the top of the order, hitting him second on Friday night against a lefty. But even against righties, he’s been hitting no lower than cleanup. He’s got an OPS pushing up towards the .800 range thanks to his 14 home runs. Sure, strikeouts are a problem for the guy with him going down swinging more than 29% of the time. But that’s much less of a problem against Vladimir Gutierrez who strikes out only 7.3 batters per nine.

Third Base

Afternoon

Yoán Moncada FD - 3B 2700 DK - 3B 5200
Opponent - BAL (Thomas Eshelman) Park - BAL
FD - 13.49 DK - 10.22

Moncada is the rare breed of hitter whose on-base percentage is higher than the slugging. It isn’t exactly a superlative, but it does speak to the patience he has at the plate. He’s getting on base around 40% of the time on the season with a 15% walk rate and is consistently hitting second in the White Sox lineup. The 25 home run season probably isn’t coming back for this guy, but he’s still a useful fantasy option.

Evening

Kris Bryant FD - 3B 3400 DK - 3B/OF 4000
Opponent - STL (Kwang Hyun Kim) Park - CHC
FD - 10.56 DK - 7.92

Like I said with Rizzo, the Cubs have had some troubles at the plate this season. Bryant didn’t play on Friday so there’s some concern the hamstring issue lingers into the weekend. But if he’s in the lineup then we are getting him at a bargain. He has an OPS in the mid-800s with 16 home runs on the season. He hasn’t been the heart of the Cubs struggles at the plate and is coming at a total bargain on DraftKings.

Outfield

Afternoon

J.D. Martinez FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 5300
Opponent - PHI (Matt Moore) Park - BOS
FD - 16.07 DK - 12.08

Matt Moore could be in trouble against the righties at the top of the Red Sox order with Martinez being one of the main sources of consternation. The latter is having another unbelievable season with a mid-.900s OPS and 17 home runs on the year. Plus, he’s just murdered this split for his career with a .966 OPS and .402 wOBA against lefties. That’s about as good as you’ll see and the price, especially on DraftKings, doesn’t really reflect it.

Brian Goodwin FD - OF 3000 DK - OF 4100
Opponent - BAL (Thomas Eshelman) Park - BAL
FD - 11.85 DK - 8.99

Goodwin has been locked into a middle-of-the-order slot for the White Sox in the short term with the loss of some bats because of injuries. He’s held up well with an .842 OPS thanks to a solid 13% walk rate and a slugging percentage propped up on some extra-base hits. The price is probably a little high for this apparent lack of long ball power, but the matchup is just too good to pass up.

Evening

Christian Yelich FD - OF 3400 DK - OF 5800
Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - MIL
FD - 12.72 DK - 9.55

Yelich would take care of the top part of the Brewers’ stack on Saturday and gets the matchup that is tailor-made for him to crush against Gutierrez. The latter struggles to strike anyone out. Yelich is struggling to keep the OPS up over .800 but it isn’t for lack of patience. He’s still walking 20% of the time. But the power just isn’t coming with a dramatically lower Hr/FB ratio. That should turn around over the course of the season though and this is just the matchup to start.