DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 7/9/21

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Pitchers

Charlie Morton FD 10000 DK 9600
Opponent - MIA (Zach Thompson) Park - MIA
FD - 34.54 DK - 18.93

This very well may be the worst pitching slate of the season and makes our decision to fade a high-priced ace very easy as there aren't any. We still have to roster a pitcher(two on DraftKings) and for me, it starts with Charlie Morton who has been providing nice PTS/$ value but now gets a monster price which is mostly relative to the options on this slate. While he did get hit around by these very Marlins in his last start, the matchup is on the plus side as they do rank bottom 10 in almost all offensive categories. This game also has the lowest total(7.5) on the slate and with strikeouts being king Morton gives us a 5-7 K floor. All things considered, he is my top pitcher on this slate and in play in all formats.

Taijuan Walker FD - P 9500 DK - SP 9000
Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - NYM
FD - 34.68 DK - 18.72

Walker got pushed up a day due to a rainout yesterday and has been terrific lately holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of his last five starts(2.90 ERA/3.10 xFIP) with a 30% K rate. The Pirates don't strike out a lot(22% vs. RH pitching) which does limit the upside here but overall they rank as a bottom 5-10 offense giving Walker a nice PTS/$ floor in the $9K range on both sites.

Kenta Maeda FD - P 7300 DK - SP 7100
Opponent - DET (Matt Manning) Park - MIN
FD - 29.85 DK - 15.93

With an overall lack of serviceable options on this slate, I was a little surprised to see Maeda as a -205 favorite in the low $7K range on DraftKings. His first half has been a complete roller coaster ride but the good news is that he is coming off his best start of the season going six innings in KC allowing just two hits and no runs while striking out 10 and walking just one. If he limits the walks, he can easily get into the 6th inning giving him a very high PTS/$ floor and ceiling. Lock in the value at SP2 in all formats.

Catcher/First Base

Matt Olson FD 3700 DK 5400
Opponent - TEX (Jordan Lyles) Park - TEX
FD - 12.37 DK - 9.17

As you will see throughout the article there is more than enough value to pay up for multiple big bats so let's start at first with Matt Olson. He has cooled off a bit in July but is still in the midst of a career year hitting .283 with a .396 wOBA and is one of just nine players with 50 or more runs scored and RBI on the season. He and the A's also get a plus matchup against Jordan Lyles(4.98 ERA/4.91 xFIP) so Olson is my top play at first in all formats.

Eric Hosmer FD 2500 DK 3800
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - SDP
FD - 9.79 DK - 7.44

No matter the position, I am always looking for value and Hosmer is one that stands out at first base. I know the numbers have started to fall off a bit this season and he is down lower in the lineup but the Padres are a top projected offense tonight so he deserves our consideration, especially at these prices. The good news here is that he may be turning a corner as he enters the night with hits in 14 of his last 16 games. You also don't have to worry about the lefty/lefty matchup as he has a 116 wRC+ in the split. I won;t be going here for cash games but he is likely to be very low owned on a high projected offense making him a nice GPP play.

Second Base

Leury García FD - 2B 2300 DK - 2B/OF 3700
Opponent - BAL (Jorge López) Park - BAL
FD - 8.55 DK - 6.73

The White Sox are very high on my list and a fairly easy team to target and stack thanks to injuries to some stars leading to opportunities for others. One of those is Leury Garcia who has been hitting a few spots higher in the lineup and comes in with hits in six of his last nine games with two multi-hit and three multi-RBI efforts. The best part is the matchup against Jorge Lopez who has given up 4+ earned runs in four of his last five starts and has walked eight batters over his last two which should lead to lots of RBI opportunities. At these prices, he is a core value play in all formats.

Luis Arraez FD - 2B 2500 DK - 3B/OF 3400
Opponent - DET (Matt Manning) Park - MIN
FD - 10.16 DK - 7.98

Arraez covers three different positions across FanDuel and DraftKings but none cross so I will place him here at second. Against a righty, he is likely back up in the leadoff spot in a good spot vs. Matt Manning and comes in with a four-game hit streak including three multi-hit efforts. There is little to no power but the price reflects that and hitting leading should get multiple opportunities to meet and exceed his value price on both sites. No matter what site you are playing, he is a top value play on this slate.

Shortstop

Tim Anderson FD - SS 3300 DK - SS 5600
Opponent - BAL (Jorge López) Park - BAL
FD - 13.34 DK - 10.37

I mentioned the great matchup for the White Sox above and Tim Anderson is not only my favorite play on the team, at shortstop, but is also one of my top overall plays tonight. We were getting him at buy-low less than a week ago and I am more than happy to pay up tonight as he has heated up in a big way with hits in nine straight and 12 of his last 13 games bringing his average up over .300 for the season. He is in play in all formats with his best value coming on FanDuel where he is still in the low $3K range.

Also Consider: Fernando Tatis Jr(SDP) if you have the salary leftover to pay all the way up or Bo Bichette(TOR) who has seen his price drop significantly on DraftKings and is now 9th most expensive at the position

Third Base

Manny Machado FD 3900 DK 5500
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - SDP
FD - 13.41 DK - 10.09

With all the value on this slate at every single position, paying up for a big stack is not going to be an issue which puts the Padres and their two sluggers squarely on the map tonight. If choosing just one, I lean Machado as he is the cheaper of the two and has been scorching hot since the start of June hitting .328 with an insane .415 wOBA, 166 wRC+, and .284 ISO. The matchup is only average as Freeland has been much better lately but has been doing it vs. much less powerful opponents(STL, PIT, SEA) than the Padres. Machado is my top play at third tonight.

Ty France FD 2700 DK 3200
Opponent - LAA (Alex Cobb) Park - LAA
FD - 9 DK - 6.87

France has really settled into his role in the middle of the Mariners lineup and has been very consistent lately hitting .311 with a .395 wOBA and 156 wRC+ since the middle of June. He gets a matchup vs. Alex Cobb who has been really good(1 ER over 7.2 IP last start) or really bad(5+ ER in 3 of his last 5 starts) and has reverse splits with a .342 wOBA against right-handed bats. At these prices, France is in play for me in all formats.

Outfield

Adam Engel FD - OF 2000 DK - OF 3000
Opponent - BAL (Jorge López) Park - BAL
FD - 10 DK - 7.71

Engel is back after a multi-week stint on the IL and looked good in his first game going 2 for 4 with a pair of doubles and two runs scored. With Luis Robert out of the lineup, Engel will patrol center field and likely hit 5th or 6th in the lineup and correlates so nice with Leury Garcia allowing you to do a White Sox stack pretty easily, especially on FanDuel where he is min price.

Trevor Larnach FD 2600 DK 2800
Opponent - DET (Matt Manning) Park - DET
FD - 11.43 DK - 8.82

The value rolls on in the outfield with rookie Trevor Larnach who, thanks to some injuries and his own merit, has slowly moved up the lineup and is becoming a staple in the middle of it. Not only is he getting opportunities galore but he has also been heating up with hits in seven straight starts. If he is back in the middle of the lineup again, he will be one of our top PTS/$ plays on this slate and helps to easily fit 3-4 big bats.

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