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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 7/4/21
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Pitchers
Freddy Peralta FD - P 9900 DK - SP 9700
Opponent - PIT (Tyler Anderson) Park - PIT
FD - 42.71 DK - 24.31
Peralta has an elite 2.17 ERA on the season though the 3.49 xFIP is about a run and a half behind on the season. He’s still a well-above-average arm and is striking out more than 12.5 batters per nine. The walks are a bit of a problem but he still has a lot of upside in this matchup. He’s a -173 road favorite against the Pirates who rank dead last in the league on offense this season. Their .287 team wOBA is a full seven points lower than the next-worst team. This is the worst group of bats by a pretty wide margin.
Charlie Morton FD - P 9000 DK - SP 7800
Opponent - MIA (Zach Thompson) Park - ATL
FD - 33.02 DK - 17.62
Morton continues to keep the ball out of the air with a 48% groundball rate on the season. He’s also striking out more than 10 batters per nine and sports a 3.48 xFIP. He’s a -180 home favorite against the Marlins who are the second-to-last offense in the league right before the lowly Pirates. Being able to stack arms against the two worst-hitting teams in the league is just the spot you want to be in here on Sunday.
Catcher/First Base
Yuli Gurriel FD - 1B 3300 DK - 1B 4800
Opponent - CLE (Cal Quantrill) Park - CLE
FD - 14.01 DK - 10.75
Gurriel draws a great matchup against Quantrill who strikes out fewer than seven batters per nine and is rocking a mid-4’s xFIP. Gurriel has an OPS pushing up near .900 and is walking (11%) more than he’s striking out (9%). He is on pace for the second-best power numbers of his career with 10 home runs on the season. He’s been slightly better against lefties for his career with the 122 wRC+ seven points higher than the righty split.
José Abreu FD - 1B 3600 DK - 1B 5200
Opponent - DET (Matt Manning) Park - DET
FD - 12.2 DK - 9.23
Abreu is having a down season for sure, but to start lets look at Matt Manning. The latter has struggled through his first 14 big league innings striking out only 9% of opposing batters and sporting an 8.16 ERA. Meanwhile, Abreu has the OPS sitting in the mid-.700s with 13 home runs, but the numbers are definitely down some from the last two seasons. But so is the price on FanDuel where he’s still a value and is in a good matchup.
Second Base
Luis Arraez FD - 2B 3000 DK - 2B/OF 3600
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 11.41 DK - 8.96
He needs to find his way to the top of the lineup for the Twins to be in play so we will want to keep an eye on that for Sunday. They’ve hit him there recently and could do so again against the righty Keller. Arraez puts the ball in play around 80% of the time which is his main superlative. He doesn’t have much power or speed, but 2B is tough and he’s cheap, especially on DraftKings.
If Jorge Polanco (FD $3100 DK $4200) is in the leadoff spot instead of Arraez then this would be the way to go instead. Polanco is just a bit more expensive on DraftKings which is a bit of a problem.
Shortstop
Fernando Tatis Jr. FD - SS 4500 DK - SS 6100
Opponent - PHI (Vince Velasquez) Park - PHI
FD - 14.49 DK - 10.96
He is about as good as it gets and it is super easy to make the case for playing him even at the elevated price points. The OPS is sitting over 1K and he’s on pace for at least a 30/30 season with 26 home runs and 17 stolen bases already. He’s about as good as it gets when it comes to both real-life baseball and fantasy. Velazquez has some K upside, but the control is terrible and he is a below-average pitcher.
Carlos Correa FD - SS 3900 DK - SS 5200
Opponent - CLE (Cal Quantrill) Park - CLE
FD - 11.48 DK - 8.64
When Brantley was scratched on Saturday, Correa slotted up to the clean-up spot for the Astros and could be back there again on Sunday. Correa is having an excellent season with a .914 OPS and .226 ISO. The .392 wOBA is the second-best number of his career and the 15 home runs have him on pace for the best power numbers of his career. His up there in price, but it is for good reason.
Third Base
Josh Donaldson FD - 3B 3500 DK - 3B 5200
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 13.28 DK - 9.84
The Twins have the highest run line on the Sunday main slate and for good reason. They easily have the best matchup against Brad Keller and his4.80 xFIP and 6.18 ERA. Those numbers are garbage thanks to the low K rate and that he walks almost 11% of opposing batters. Donaldson is having a fine enough season with an .832 OPS though he has cut down on the strikeouts this year. He might push towards 30 home runs when it is all said and done.
Abraham Toro FD - 3B 2500 DK - 3B 3300
Opponent - CLE (Cal Quantrill) Park - CLE
FD - 9.69 DK - 7.32
Toro has been in the lineup every day of late for the Astros who are dealing with some injuries and there is even some chance we get him near the top of the lineup again. Toro has the good fortune of hitting in an Astros lineup around some other good bats and coming cheap. That's kind of the story with him on this slate where 3B is pretty weak on the main slate.
Outfield
Nelson Cruz FD - OF 4200 DK - OF 5600
Opponent - KC (Brad Keller) Park - KC
FD - 12.73 DK - 9.53
In his age-41 season Cruz isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. He already has 18 home runs on the year helping him to a .951 OPS. He remains very difficult to strikeout and that’s going to be a problem for Keller who has very little in the way of swing and miss stuff. The power is there and the Twins are the stack of the main slate with the highest implied run total among the early games.
Chas McCormick FD - OF 2400 DK - OF 2400
Opponent - CLE (Cal Quantrill) Park - CLE
FD - 10.45 DK - 8.06
He’s been hitting around the top of the lineup for the Astros over the last few games and is coming way too cheap on both sites, DraftKings especially. He strikeouts out more than 30% of the time which is problematic, but the plate appearance expectation is great considering there is power in the bat. He has nine home runs in his first 1145 major league plate appearances. The Astros lineup could really matter on this slate depending on which guys are hitting near the top of the order.
With that in mind, keep an eye on Myles Straw (FD $2800 DK $2800) who hit leadoff on Saturday.
