DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Saturday 7/3/21

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Pitchers

Afternoon

Yu Darvish FD - P 11000 DK - SP 10400
Opponent - PHI (Zach Eflin) Park - PHI
FD - 37.28 DK - 20.87

Darvish isn’t putting up quite the numbers this season that he did last time around with the 3.72 xFIP sitting nearly a run higher than last season. But the strikeouts, at 10.79 per nine are still elite and he’s been able to limit the walks better than in other, pre-2020 seasons. His ERA is lower because he’s run pretty well on the BABIP, but I do like the matchup against the Phillies who are actually below average as an offense this season and strike out around 26% of the time. He’s a -150 road favorite with an 8 o/u which is one of the better numbers on this afternoon slate.

Tyler Mahle (FD $8100 DK $9600) is a decent value on FanDuel.

Evening

Clayton Kershaw FD - P 11000 DK - SP 10000
Opponent - WSH (Paolo Espino) Park - WSH
FD - 37.17 DK - 20.21

Kershaw doesn’t draw the best matchup on this evening slate of games, facing the Nationals and their above-average offense. But he’s the best arm going here and that’s going to count for a lot. From a strikeout perspective, Kershaw is having the second-best season of his career with his best xFIP since 2017. He’s always been able to limit the walks and has a nearly 7:1 K:BB ratio. Facing off against the Nationals isn’t ideal, but they aren’t a murderer’s row either.

Against the Rangers, Marco Gonzales (FD $7600 DK $7700) looks like a good SP2 on DraftKings.

Catcher/First Base

Afternoon

José Abreu FD - 1B 3600 DK - 1B 5100
Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - DET
FD - 11.61 DK - 8.78

There are a lot of good-to-decent arms on this afternoon slate which is going to make some of the hitting options a bit tricky. Abreu isn’t putting up the same kind of numbers we saw from him over the last two seasons with the power numbers dipping rather dramatically. His hard contact rate is about the same, but he’s struggling to get lift and the GB% is a little troubling. But on this slate against a lefty in Skubal who struggles with control I think we can take a chance on him.

Evening

Paul Goldschmidt FD - 1B 4300 DK - 1B 4900
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 15.36 DK - 11.55

Goldschmidt clearly isn’t the hitter he used to be with a low-700s OPS on the season and has been significantly worse against lefties which definitely hasn’t the case at all. But if we still lean on the historical numbers, this guy crushes lefties over the long term. For his career, Goldie has a .998 OPS and .417 wOBA which is about as elite as it gets. Hitting in Coors against a low-K lefty, this is still a spot to pay up for Goldschmidt and I suspect a lot will.

Second Base

Afternoon

Jonathan India FD - 2B 3200 DK - 2B 4400
Opponent - CHC (Adbert Alzolay) Park - CIN
FD - 10.78 DK - 8.23

India should be in the leadoff slot again for the Reds and is putting up a very solid season in that role so far. The OPS is pushing towards 800 and he’s shown bits of power (six home runs) and speed (seven stolen bases). He’s taking a good amount of walks with a 12.6% BB rate and isn’t the easiest to strikeout either. Alzolay is a moderate-to-good arm but the FanDuel price is pretty advantageous.

Luis Urías (FD $3100 DK $5100) could be in a good spot if he’s hitting leadoff.

Evening

Brendan Rodgers FD - 2B 3400 DK - 2B/SS 5000
Opponent - STL (Wade LeBlanc) Park - COL
FD - 11.73 DK - 9.03

Rodgers moved up to the fifth slot in the order on Friday and could be there again on Saturday against the lefty LeBlanc. The former is putting together a pretty nice season all things considered with an .860 OPS, putting the ball in play around 73% of the time and walking 9% of the time. He’s also been much better against lefties for his shorter career which makes him on the better side of the platoon split in this one. If he’s high enough in the order we can play him on FanDuel easily. It’s a little closer on DraftKings with the price at $5000.

Shortstop

Afternoon

Willy Adames FD - SS 3100 DK - SS 4500
Opponent - PIT (Undecided) Park - PIT
FD - 10.75 DK - 8.2

The Pirates haven’t announced their starter for Saturday and that’s usually a great place to be for the opposing team. Adames has been hitting in the second slot for the Brewers and has a mid-700s OPS. He has 12 home runs on the season and is on pace for the best power numbers of his career. We have to wait until we hear who the Pirates are putting on the mound. But if Adames is in the second spot then he is something of a bargain.

Evening

Trevor Story FD - SS 4400 DK - SS 6200
Opponent - STL (Wade LeBlanc) Park - COL
FD - 17.09 DK - 12.99

He’s very expensive and that’s for good reason. Story is a spot that he’s crushed for his career. Hitting against lefties in Coors is where he’s done the most damage. In that home-lefty split, which is 362 plate appearances, he has a 1.102 OPS and .449 wOBA. That’s almost as good as you’ll ever see and now he’s facing LeBlanc who strikes out six batters per nine in the best of circumstances. This is such a smash spot for Story and we can pay up for him on the evening slate.

Third Base

Afternoon

Ke'Bryan Hayes FD - 3B 3200 DK - 3B 4600
Opponent - MIL (Eric Lauer) Park - PIT
FD - 10.56 DK - 8.11

Third base is something of a tough sell on this slate, but I don’t mind Hayes here. Hitting second in the lineup for the Pirates at least gives him some plate appearance expectation even on a bad team. But he has a .780 OPS on the season thanks to a 12% walk rate and he’s very tough to strike out. And the sample size is very small for the youngster, but he’s been awesome against lefties in the few plate appearances he’s had.

Evening

Nolan Arenado FD - 3B 4400 DK - 3B 5900
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 15.02 DK - 11.33

Arenado is heading back into Coors and getting to face a lefty. It feels like the old days. He’s been solid as a Cardinal this season with 16 home runs already and a mid-800s OPS. But this dude just slaughtered lefties in Coors for years. He has a .994 OPS and 144 wRC+ against lefties for his career. This is such a smash spot though you’ll need to pay for the pleasure. I think if you are able to fade Kershaw on the slate for pitching there will be enough money for Nado and Story, though facing off against each other.

Outfield

Afternoon

Tyrone Taylor FD - OF 2200 DK - OF 2900
Opponent - PIT (Undecided) Park - PIT
FD - 9.91 DK - 7.57

He seems to have an everyday gig around the middle of the lineup with the Brewers right now and is coming near the minimum on FanDuel. Taylor has spiked some power since coming up from the minors with six home runs already. There might be some smoke and mirrors to the early performance, but he has a great opportunity and is coming very cheap on both sites.

Randy Arozarena (FD $3200 DK $4600) and Austin Meadows (FD $3500 DK $4800) are okay options on the afternoon slate.

Evening

Tyler O'Neill FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 4100
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 13.38 DK - 10.08

Dylan Carlson FD - OF 3400 DK - OF 3700
Opponent - COL (Kyle Freeland) Park - COL
FD - 13.79 DK - 10.52

Carlson is still hitting leadoff, is still playing in Coors, and is still coming way too cheap on DraftKings. I don’t know why the price is stuck here, but it’s making him a pretty easy play on this slate. The mid-700s OPS plays fine and he has a bit of power with seven home runs. The sample size isn’t huge, but over his first 400 or so plate appearances he has been much, much better against lefties with an .808 OPS and 125 wRC+. Again, this is just way too cheap on DK and he’ll be another popular play if hitting leadoff.

Meanwhile, O’Neill is also coming cheap on DraftKings for what he’s been doing, already with 15 home runs on the season. He has a better walk rate against lefties, but is better overall against righties, But the sample size is on the smaller side so this is likely to correct over time.

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