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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Wednesday 6/30/21
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Pitchers
Chris Bassitt FD - P 9800 DK - SP 10500
Opponent - TEX (Kolby Allard) Park - OAK
FD - 41.53 DK - 22.63
Bassitt may not provide the upside we are used to getting with our top-priced pitcher but his price is mostly relative to the size of the slate and lack of options at the top. The good news here is that he has been one of the more consistent arms this season holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 12 of his last 14 starts lowering his ERA to 3.25 on the season. On top of the consistency, he gives us some of the best win equity on the slate as a -200 favorite against a below-average Rangers offense. All things considered, he is my top pitcher on this main slate.
Joe Musgrove FD - P 8700 DK - SP 9200
Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - CIN
FD - 37.66 DK - 20.83
First of all, this is a big park downgrade for Musgrove but as I mentioned above we are short on options tonight so talent wins out. The year started off with a bang as he shutout Arizona over six innings followed by a no-hitter against Texas and then three more starts holding opponents to just five total earned runs. After a couple of rough outings, he has been consistent since posting a 1.57 ERA over his last eight starts and has gone at least six innings in three straight. He has provided a high floor all season and despite a smaller slate the price has actually come back down making him a top PTS/$ option and my favorite SP2 on the slate.
Catcher/First Base
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. FD 4700 DK 5900
Opponent - SEA (Justus Sheffield) Park - SEA
FD - 16.14 DK - 12.24
There are really only two ways to go at first base it seems like on a nightly basis. You either pay up for pitching and scatter value bats throughout your lineup or find some value pitching and load up on bats. If paying up, there is really only one option and it's Valddy Jr who comes in with hits in nine straight including five multi-hit efforts, and has arguably been the MVP of the league with a .344/.446/.685 slash line. Unlike a year ago, he has really crushed lefties as well and is in play in all formats......if you can afford him.
Yuli Gurriel FD 3200 DK 5100
Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - BAL
FD - 16.57 DK - 12.71
If going a little more balanced is your flavor, Yuli Gurriel is pretty much a core play for me each and every day. The Astros offense is #1 in baseball and the veteran Gurriel is having himself a career year hitting .330 and has already driven in 52 runs. Combine that consistency and upside with an elite matchup against Matt Harvey who has given up 4+ earned runs in seven of his last nine starts and you have an elite play in all formats.
Second Base
Jake Cronenworth FD 3200 DK 5300
Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - CIN
FD - 10.46 DK - 8.06
There are four core teams on my radar for this main slate and the Padres are right near the top in a plus matchup vs. Vladimir Gutierrez. Tatis is clearly the top play on the team but his price is in Vladdy territory so for cash I will go elsewhere for my exposure. It starts with Jake Cronenworth who is back consistently hitting in the three-hole in between Machado and Tatis and has been hot with hits in eight of those nine games and has posted a .400 wOBA and 159 wRC+in the month of June. He is in play in all formats but his best value comes on FanDuel in the low $3K range.
Kike Hernández FD 3400 DK 4000
Opponent - KC (Mike Minor) Park - KC
FD - 13.49 DK - 10.18
It is hard to ignore the price on Hernandez, especially on DraftKings, when he has been hitting leadoff again and playing well. He comes into tonight with three straight multi-hit efforts including two home runs and gets a plus matchup vs. Mike Minor(5.12 ERA/4.09 xFIP)who has been a roller coaster ride all season. Provided Hernandez is back in the leadoff spot, he is a top value play for me in all formats.
Shortstop
**Note that if you have the salary, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Carlos Correa are easily our top plays at the position but there is only so much salary to go around if targeting top pitching so let's look at some value below**
Amed Rosario FD 2700 DK 4000
Opponent - DET (José Ureña) Park - DET
FD - 10.6 DK - 8.31
Cleveland is one of those top four teams I will be targeting tonight and while the upside is somewhat limited here, Rosario provides excellent cash game value. He has been doing his best work in June hitting .319 with 18 runs scored while hitting from the two-hole and Cleveland gets one of the best matchups on the board against struggling Jose Urena.
Tim Anderson FD 3200 DK 4700
Opponent - MIN (Bailey Ober) Park - MIN
FD - 11.79 DK - 9.16
The price is starting to go back up on Anderson but there is still time to buy low as he is starting to heat up. He comes into tonight with hits in five of his last six games in a much-needed time as the White Sox continue to hold first place despite a ton of injuries up and down the lineup. This latest uptrend has also brought his average up to .293 which is a good sign he is returning to his perennial .320/.330 elite hitting self. I won't be going here in cash but the White Sox are likely a low-owned stack tonight with big upside.
Third Base
Manny Machado FD 3500 DK 5100
Opponent - CIN (Vladimir Gutierrez) Park - CIN
FD - 14.81 DK - 11.15
It is both going to be hard to pay up for Tatis for the Padres and pay up at the third base position so I drift down to the next tier. That sounds crazy with a player like Machado but considering he is $1000 cheaper than Matt Chapman and in a much better matchup, we have to take note. He isn't exactly having a Manny season(.260 average) but has been much better lately hitting .315 in June with a .377 wOBA/143 wRC+. Tatis is going to be tough to fit without sacrificing pitching so I will turn to the other parts at the top of the lineup in cash games and Machado is at the top of the list.
Jean Segura FD 2500 DK 3400
Opponent - MIA (Jordan Holloway) Park - MIA
FD - 10.97 DK - 8.5
Segura is back after missing two weeks to injury(groin) and that has resulted in some value as the price is near its bottom on both sites. He comes in hitting .328 on the season and is expected to continue to resume his role near the top of the lineup. It's not a sexy pick but if you need some salary relief to get to the top pitchers and some top bats, he is most definitely in play for me tonight, mostly in cash games.
Outfield
Michael Brantley FD 3700 DK 4500
Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - BAL
FD - 14.3 DK - 10.96
Brantley's price is slowly starting to go up on DraftKings but considering he hits in the core of lineup on the top offense in baseball this is still a buy-low situation. He has been good all season(.341/.385/.496 slash) but even better in June hitting .418 with a .451 wOBA/194 wRC+. Combine all that with the Astros getting arguably the best matchup on the board and you have yourself a top play in all formats.
Hunter Renfroe FD 3200 DK 3600
Opponent - KC (Mike Minor) Park - KC
FD - 14.53 DK - 10.86
If you are looking for even more value in the outfield, enter Hunter Renfroe. Sur he hits down in the 5-6 spot in the order but he has been money in June hitting .297 with a .374 wOBA/134 wRC+ and 18 RBI. More good news as he also crushes lefties to the tune of a .456 wOBA and 189 wRC+ on the season. He isn't a must-play on FanDuel but sure is on DraftKings.
