(AP Photo/John Locher)
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Detroit Golf Club
Par 72 - 7,340 Yards
Greens - Bent/Poa
This week the PGA Tour heads back to Detroit Golf Club for a third straight year for the Rocket Mortgage Classic. It is a weaker field overall and top-loaded with Bryson DeChambeau(#6) and Patrick Reed(#9) the only two Top 10 players in the World rankings teeing it up this week.
The course is a classic tree-lined Donald Ross design that forces a lot of shot-making with a pretty even split of doglegs to the left and right. While we were mostly guessing at correlated stats over the last two years, we finally have a nice accumulation of stats to look at. The first thing that stands out is Par 4 scoring which has had a very high correlation to finishing position both years(relative to other courses). On top of that, Strokes Gained: Approach had a higher correlation than Off the Tee when looking at Ball Striking. Add in the winning score in the -20's both years and I am leaning heavily on SG: Approach, Par 4 scoring, and Birdie or Better % in my model this week.
With that said, let's jump in and look at a few core plays in my player pool this week.
Bryson DeChambeau
World Golf Ranking (#6)
Vegas Odds (7.5/1)
Draftkings ($11,400)
FanDuel ($12,200)
I am not thrilled about the top tier outside of Bryson and Patrick Reed so that is where I will be loading up this week. Let's start with Bryson who used a combination of his length(+6.7 strokes off the tee) and a hot putter(+7.8 strokes) to win the event with a winning score of -23. He hasn't posted a Top 10 in almost two months but is more than due considering the ball striking and putting have been red-hot coming into the week. I won't be going here in cash games but will be splitting him and Reed in my GPP builds.
Patrick Reed
World Golf Ranking (#9)
Vegas Odds (14/1)
Draftkings ($10,900)
FanDuel ($11,800)
If it came down to one or the other this week, I would be leaning Reed here for a couple of reasons, starting with the slight discount. It is more about form, however, as Reed has been better in the short term with three straight Top 25 finishes including a T5 at the Memorial, and has been red-hot with the irons gaining 3.4 strokes or more on approach in each of those events. He doesn't have a win here like Bryson but did finish T5 in the inaugural event before missing the cut last year. It is very close but Reed is my favorite play of the week.
Doc Redman
World Golf Ranking (#131)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,900)
FanDuel ($10,100)
Starting with the course history angle, Redman is one of just three players in the field to have finished Top 25(T21, T2) in both previous Rocket Mortgage Classic's. After a tough stretch early in 2021, he is also starting to gain momentum making the cut in five straight events including two Top 10's(Palmetto Champ, Byron Nelson) and has gained strokes on approach and putting in all five. That is a great combination for making cuts and putting yourself in contention regularity. Under $8K still, Redman is one of my favorite PTS/$ plays this week.
Chez Reavie
World Golf Ranking (#160)
Vegas Odds (90/1)
Draftkings ($7,600)
FanDuel ($9,600)
Speaking of getting over a rough patch, Chez Reavie likely couldn't see a light at the end of the tunnel after missing six straight cuts going into June but then it started to turn around. He comes into this week having made three straight cuts(T14, T40, T25) while gained 8.7, 7.8, and 5.7 strokes tee to green in those events. The only thing holding him back is the flatstick and we know that can turn at any moment. While he ranks 128th in SG: Putting overall on my sheet, he is 19th when looking at Bent/Poa splits. At these prices, I will have exposure in all formats.
Troy Merritt
World Golf Ranking (#129)
Vegas Odds (110/1)
Draftkings ($7,100)
FanDuel ($8,800)
Merritt isn't a guy who is going to gain strokes off the tee with distance but does check a lot of boxes this week starting with the form. He comes in having made the cut in five straight and eight of his last 10 events including three Top 10 finishes(Charles Schwab, Byron Nelson, Valspar). The ball striking is a little ugly in the short term but he is 9th in par 4 scoring and, 1st in SG: putting, and 6th in opportunities gained over the last 24 rounds so I am willing to take a shot at these prices.
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