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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 6/27/21
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Pitchers
Max Scherzer FD - P 11200 DK - SP 10700
Opponent - MIA (Sandy Alcantara) Park - MIA
FD - 45.1 DK - 25.26
Joe Girardi’s histrionics aside, Scherzer doesn’t seem like he’s had any issues with the no grip rules and he’s been pretty awesome again this season. He’s once again striking out more than 12 batters per nine this season and the xFIP is still sitting in the low-3’s. He’s not an overwhelming favorite in this game against the Marlins, but he’s the best arm going on the main slate of games. The Marlins are the second-worst offense in the league this season with a .294 team wOBA. Despite lower win odds than normal, I still think Scherzer is the cash game play for this slate.
Jake Odorizzi FD - P 7600 DK - SP 6900
Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - DET
FD - 32.22 DK - 17.25
Odorizzi has had an injury-shortened season so far but the peripherals, when on the mound, have been solid. He’s striking out 29% of the batters he’s faced and the walk rate is the second-lowest number he’s sported over the last five years. His 3.53 xFIP is more than a run lower than the 4.75 ERA and he’s had some LOB% issues along the way. He’s a -185 road favorite against the Tigers and I think the price is such that he’s a SP2 option on DraftKings for sure.
Ryan Yarbrough (FD $7500 DK $9200) might be an okay option on FanDuel in this matchup.
Catcher/First Base
Yuli Gurriel FD - 1B 3300 DK - 1B 4900
Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - DET
FD - 15.04 DK - 11.53
Tarik Skubal isn’t showing quite the promise expected from him coming out of the minors and is really struggling with his control. Gurriel meanwhile has put it all together so far this season with low-.900s OPS thanks to a dramatically increased walk rate (10%) and 10 home runs already. He’s mispriced on FanDuel especially hitting in the middle of the order. The platoon numbers are slightly better against lefties for his career and the Astros are in a good spot here.
Nate Lowe FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B 4300
Opponent - KC (Brady Singer) Park - TEX
FD - 11.11 DK - 8.41
Lowe is locked into the two spot in the Rangers’ lineup and has actually had a pretty good season so far. He’s knocked down the strikeout rate since coming over from the Rays and ticked up the walk rate as well. His .768 OPS is serviceable at these prices and the plate appearance expectation is good enough even if the Rangers’ offense leaves something to be desired. The matchup against Brady Singer is a good one as well with the righty being an average arm at best.
Second Base
Marcus Semien FD - 2B 3700 DK - 2B/SS 5600
Opponent - BAL (Jorge López) Park - TOR
FD - 15.8 DK - 11.97
Paying up for Scherzer and getting some of these Blue Jays’ bats won’t be the easiest thing in the world. But there’s a reason Toronto is sitting at over six runs on their expected run line. Jorge Lopez isn’t as bad as the 5.68 ERA would suggest but he’s not good either. Semien is on pace for a career-best power number with 18 home runs already through his first 335 plate appearances. His mid-800s OPS is solid and he’s retained the leadoff slot even with George Springer off the injured list.
Cavan Biggio (FD $3300 DK $4400) is hitting a little further down in the Blue Jays lineup, but he’s coming cheaper as well, especially on DraftKings. He’s qualifying at 2B as well.
Shortstop
Bo Bichette FD - SS 4300 DK - SS 5900
Opponent - BAL (Jorge López) Park - TOR
FD - 18.45 DK - 14.16
We are a broken record with this guy, but even at a premium position, he’s a tough fade on a day-in, day-out basis. That’s because, from a fantasy perspective, he’s the full package with the speed and power combination you dream about. On the season, he has 14 home runs and 12 stolen bases already and is hitting in front of arguably the best hitter in baseball right now in Guerrero. Against Lopez, who struggles to put batter down, Bichette is an elite option and is worth spending up here.
Willy Adames FD - SS 2400 DK - SS 4900
Opponent - COL (Chi Chi González) Park - MIL
FD - 10.24 DK - 7.8
We wrote up Adames yesterday and have no problem going back to the dude again on Sunday. He actually moved into the 5th slot in the lineup for the Brewers on Saturday, a nice boost to his plate appearance projection The low-700s OPS is nothing to write home about, but there is power in the bat with 10 home runs already on the season and he’s swiped a couple of bags as well. Against Gonzalez, a below-average arm, this isn’t the worst spot and he’s a total bargain on FanDuel.
Third Base
Abraham Toro FD - 3B 2500 DK - 3B 3400
Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - DET
FD - 10.36 DK - 7.83
He hits lower in the lineup for the Astros than you might like, but he’s made the most of his opportunity when in the lineup. And the opportunity has been more consistent of late. He has a low-800s OPS on the season and is walking (11%) more than he’s striking out (9%). That’s elite patience and not something you see all that often these days. The power isn’t there, but the contact rate is awesome and I’m not all that worried about the matchup here with Skubal.
Isiah Kiner-Falefa FD - 3B 2600 DK - SS 4700
Opponent - KC (Brady Singer) Park - TEX
FD - 9.14 DK - 7.16
If we are trying to fit Scherzer or one of the other big arms on this slate then we are going to need to save in some spots. Kiner-Falefa fits the bill on FanDuel especially. He’s hitting leadoff and his value is wrapped up almost entirely in the legs. He’s got 15 stolen bases on the season already and when he gets on base (which isn’t a ton) he’s off to the races. The DraftKings price is a little tougher to stomach.
Outfield
George Springer FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 4100
Opponent - BAL (Jorge López) Park - TOR
FD - 15.53 DK - 11.67
Teoscar Hernández FD - OF 3500 DK - OF 4800
Opponent - BAL (Jorge López) Park - TOR
FD - 15.52 DK - 11.66
Springer didn’t take over the leadoff slot when he came back off of the injured list, but he’s still in the 5-hole and coming as a bargain on DraftKings. The Jays are an elite offense at this point and put up another 12 runs on Saturday. Springer has the OPS pushing up around .800 right now and that’s likely to continue to climb over the short term. And that can happen against an arm like Lopez. It’s no secret why the Blue Jays are projected for a lot of runs on Sunday and Springer is too cheap on DK.
Meanwhile, Teoscar is locked into the cleanup spot and has power of his own with 10 home runs already on the season. The FanDuel price is a definite bargain and being slotted into this elite offense he’s just coming too cheap.
Consider Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (FD $3000 DK $3600) to finish off the Jays’ stack. He’s a great price on DraftKings.
I don’t mind Jorge Soler (FD $2600 DK $3800) who’s running terrible on both BABIP and Hr/FB% this season. The hard contact rate is down for sure, but not enough to explain the bad luck.
