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Opponent - PHI (Zach Eflin) Park - NYM
FD - 45.49 DK - 26.05
I suppose it’s kind of close between deGrom and Lance Lynn, with the latter having a better win expectation, but the former’s numbers are just plain stupid this season. deGrom is striking out around 47% (47%!) of the batters he’s faced this season and has an unreal 11.7:1 K:BB ratio. I suppose the 0.50 ERA is a little lucky, but the xFIP is a paltry 1.59 xFIP. Even in a pitcher’s league, you simply don’t see this kind of dominance. It’s amazing. He’s tough to fade every time he takes the mound and is the best pitcher in baseball right now.
Evening
Opponent - ARI (Merrill Kelly) Park - SD
FD - 43.23 DK - 24.46
Lamet has electric stuff, but the control continues to be a moderate issue which limits his ability to go longer into games. That being said, he’s turning in one of his better seasons, striking out 10.4 batters per nine and carrying in a 2.78 ERA. The 3.78 xFIP points to a guy getting a little lucky right now, but he’s still an above average arm coming at very reasonable prices. And he’s got the best win odds expectation on the evening slate as a -255 home favorite against the Diamondbacks. Arizona is a bottom-third offense in the league this season, striking out 24% of the time. This is a smash spot for Lamet.
Afternoon
Opponent - BAL (Keegan Akin) Park - TOR
FD - 15.58 DK - 11.82
You have to pay out the nose here, but it’s probably worth it to try to get he and deGrom into the same lineup. Guerrero is having an MVP-caliber season so far with an OPS sitting around 1.100 and 24 home runs already. The 22-year-old (yes, 22) has put it all together and is primed to be around and mashing for years and years to come. He has a better OPS against righties for his short career, but that could be noisy based on sample size. He walks more against lefties and has a BABIP 100 points lower in that split. This is a great place to load up against Akin.
Evening
Opponent - CHC (Alec Mills) Park - LAD
FD - 13.98 DK - 10.3
Muncy is locked into the two-spot for the Dodgers and still coming at a reasonable price on FanDuel. His low-900s OPS is looking like he’s rounding back into 2018 form. He’s walking at a career-high 19% rate and striking out at the lowest rate of his career. You have to like the spot against Alec Mills who is shy on strikeout stuff and could be in trouble against this Dodgers’ lineup.
Afternoon
Opponent - BAL (Keegan Akin) Park - TOR
FD - 15.52 DK - 11.76
Even with George Springer back from the injured list, Semien is sticking in the leadoff role for the high-powered Blue Jays. It makes sense considering the returns he’s given them this season. He already has 18 home runs on the season and an OPS in the mid .800’s. Semien has been much better against lefties for his career with a ,356 wOBA and .811 OPS in that split. Akin shouldn’t be anything more than a speed bump for the Blue Jays’ offense.
Evening
Opponent - NYY (Jordan Montgomery) Park - BOS
FD - 10.22 DK - 7.81
Arroyo got the start in the leadoff slot the last time the Red Sox faced a lefty and that should be the case again against Minor on Saturday. If that’s the case then he’d be an excellent value play at the position at these prices. Though he’s been worse for his career against lefties, it’s tough to pass up the plate appearance expectations at these prices. He doesn’t have the patience of a prototypical leadoff hitter but it doesn’t matter all that much if you are paying in the lower tier. Keep an eye out for this Red Sox lineup.
Afternoon
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - MIL
FD - 10.03 DK - 7.65
Adames is still hitting around the middle of the lineup for the Brewers even though they are getting a bit healthier in the short term. I like the FanDuel price much better than the DraftKings salary and if you are looking to pay up for deGrom then he would really help. Adames is a decent enough hitter for his career even though this season has been a bit more of a struggle. If he’s truly a mid-.700s OPS guy then you are getting away with something on FD.
Evening
Opponent - NYY (Jordan Montgomery) Park - BOS
FD - 13.77 DK - 10.43
Xander continues on with an excellent season, rocking a mid-.900s OPS and remains a tough guy to put down swinging, striking out less that 19% of the time. Montgomery is merely an average arm, striking out less than a batter an inning with an 4.00 xFIP. Xander is about 70 points higher in his OPS against lefties for his career with a .372 wOBA in that split. I like the Red Sox on this shorter evening slate of games.
Afternoon
Opponent - CLE (Sam Hentges) Park - MIN
FD - 13.26 DK - 9.82
Facing lefties has been the much better side of Donaldson’s splits for the better part of his career. He has a .943 OPS against southpaws with a .400 wOBA. These are near-elite numbers against this side of the platoon and it’s why he’s in consideration whenever there’s a lefty on the mound. Against Hentges I think we can target Donaldson on this afternoon slate. The former has serious control issues and though he isn’t as bad as the mid-6’s ERA would suggest, he definitely isn’t all that good.
Evening
Opponent - CHC (Alec Mills) Park - LAD
FD - 12.61 DK - 9.52
If we are running Lamet on this slate, then we won’t be paying up all that much for pitching. That’s going to mean a little more wiggle room spending up on bats. Turner is walking at the best rate of his career with the OPS sitting in the mid-800s right now. Meanwhile, Mills is a below-average arm on the season and the Dodgers should be able to put up some runs in this matchup. The FanDuel price on Turner is just too low.
Afternoon
Opponent - BAL (Keegan Akin) Park - TOR
FD - 15.93 DK - 11.98
Opponent - BAL (Keegan Akin) Park - TOR
FD - 12.99 DK - 9.92
Springer didn’t slot back into the top of the lineup upon returning from the injured list, but he did get back on the good side of the baseball on Friday night with a home run. It’s been a struggle for him this season with the injuries for sure, but if he’s fully healthy then the DraftKings price is a total joke.
Meanwhile, Lourdes has some pop in the bat which you are hoping for because he doesn’t do a ton else. But he’s way better for his career against lefties with a solid .855 OPS and .355 wOBA in that split. The prices on him are way too low as well even hitting down in the lower-third of the lineup.
Evening
Opponent - NYY (Jordan Montgomery) Park - BOS
FD - 14.18 DK - 10.66
Opponent - NYY (Jordan Montgomery) Park - BOS
FD - 12.64 DK - 9.45
We’ve been through this before but both of these guys are significantly better in their lefty platoons over the course of the careers. And a guy like J.D. is one of the best to ever do it against southpaws. Both of these guys are more than in play on a shorter slate against Montgomery and you should be able to afford them considering the other pitching options.
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