DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 6/22/21

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Pitchers

Freddy Peralta FD - P 9500 DK - SP 10000
Opponent - ARI (Zac Gallen) Park - ARI
FD - 40.65 DK - 23.19

If you are into pitching as much as I am, this is the slate for you. The system has Gerrit Cole up top in terms of raw points but I am taking the discount and rolling with Freddy Peralta as my top pitcher tonight. After running almost exclusively out of the bullpen in 2020, he is back in the rotation and has been terrific holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in seven straight and 11 of 13 starts good for a 2.28 ERA/3.39 xFIP. He also gets the much better matchup against the D-backs team that went into Monday losers of 17 straight games while tallying a league-low 66 wRC+ and .109 ISO. He is my top overall pitcher and his best value comes on FanDuel in the mid $9K range.

Lucas Giolito FD - P 10500 DK - SP 9400
Opponent - PIT (Tyler Anderson) Park - PIT
FD - 40.15 DK - 21.59

What I like more about fading Gerrit Cole in cash is that it allows us to easily pay up for two really good pitchers and my favorite for SP2 is Giolito who is back down in the mid $9K range on DraftKings. While he has been having issues keeping the ball in the yard(7 HR last 4 starts), he has hit at least 2x value on DK at these prices in six straight starts thanks to his K upside as he has struck out 35% of batters in that time. The power issue is also less of an issue in this matchup as the Pirates have a league-worst .125 ISO on the season and produce runs close to 20% below league average(park-adjusted). All things considered, Giolito is in my player pool in all formats.

Catcher/First Base

Yuli Gurriel FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B 4700
Opponent - BAL (Jorge López) Park - BAL
FD - 16.01 DK - 12.28

The first thing that jumps off the page when looking at the bats for this slate is how underpriced most of the Astros are tonight. The value mostly comes on DraftKings where Gurriel, Correa, and Alvarez are all still in the $4K range while 40 players on this slate are in the $5K or more. What makes that even crazier is the fact the Astros lead the league in almost every offensive category and lead the slate in implied runs in a great matchup vs. Jorge Lopez. For Gurriel, he is having a career year hitting over .320 with a .380+ wOBA and 150+ wRC+. Not only is he a great play on DraftKings but he is still in the low $3K range on FanDuel, as well.

Jared Walsh FD 4000 DK 5000
Opponent - SF (Anthony DeSclafani) Park - SF
FD - 11.16 DK - 8.38

Walsh falls down my PTS/$ rankings a little as the price, matchup, and park are nowhere near as attractive as Gurriel's but that should help the ownership a ton. What I like here starts on the team level as the Angels have been a top offensive team lately ranking second in runs scored and third in home runs in the month of June. Walsh has been a huge part of that success with home runs in three straight games and six total in June and for the season he comes in with an elite .377 wOBA, 152 wRC+, and .286 ISO. I don't think we ned to go here in cash games but I love the Angels stack in GPP and it is centered around Walsh.

Second Base

Kolten Wong FD 2900 DK 4500
Opponent - ARI (Zac Gallen) Park - ARI
FD - 9.28 DK - 7.15
Donovan Solano FD 2300 DK 4000
Opponent - LAA (Andrew Heaney) Park - LAA
FD - 7.51 DK - 5.9

Second base is a bit of a mess after Altuve who also has an astronomical price tag in relation to his underpriced teammates that I mention throughout the article. For that reason, I will be fading Altuve in cash and looking for value at the position instead. It starts with Kolten Wong who is back at the top of the Brewers lineup after dealing with an injury and has picked up hits in three of four since his return. On the season, he has been very solid, as well, with a .284 average and 118 wRC+. In a tougher matchup vs. Gallen, he is more of a one-off value for me rather than a full Brewers stack.

If you are needing even more salary relief to make things work tonight I do like Solano despite hitting down a bit in the Giants lineup most games. What I like is the consistency(for the price) as he comes in with hits in seven straight and nine of his last 10 games where he has started. At these prices, I am not looking for a monster return but rather a solid 5-10 points as a floor to help me spend up elsewhere.

Shortstop

Carlos Correa FD - SS 3900 DK - SS 4800
Opponent - BAL (Jorge López) Park - BAL
FD - 13.52 DK - 10.18

I talked about the Astros being my top team tonight with Gurriel and mentioned the value on DraftKings with some of their big bats still hovering under $5K. Correa is another one of those bats and he has been red-hot this month as he went into Monday night hitting .350 with six home runs and 13 RBI in 16 June games. He does strike out about 8% more vs. right-handed pitching but has a near-identical 158/157 wRC+ in the splits. If he is back down in the six-hole in the lineup he may not be a must-play but if he moves up the lineup at all tonight, I will have a ton of exposure to correlate with the top of the lineup.

Trevor Story FD 3700 DK 5400
Opponent - SEA (Chris Flexen) Park - SEA
FD - 10.61 DK - 8.06

My guess is that the chalk build will include a combination of two of the top pitchers along with a couple of the underpriced Houston bats and that leaves some great opportunities to pivot in GPP formats. That leads me Trevor Story who is having a down season overall but has really started to heat up in the short-term with hits in seven straight including four multi-hit efforts, three doubles, and a home run. He also faces a pitcher in Flexen who has been a roller coaster all season and has actually had reverse splits and been worse against righties. Story is likely very low owned tonight making him one of my favorite upside GPP pivots tonight.

Third Base

Matt Chapman FD 3000 DK 4700
Opponent - TEX (Taylor Hearn) Park - TEX
FD - 12.45 DK - 9.3

To say it has been a struggle to start the 2021 season would be an understatement for Chapman who is hitting just .225 coming into tonight. There does appear to be some light at the end of the tunnel as he comes into tonight with a nine-game hit streak that includes four doubles, a triple, and three home runs. More good news, as he has also slowly worked his way back up the lineup and if in the top half again tonight, will be a core play for me in all formats in a plus matchup.

Also Consider: Nolan Arenado(STL) as a high upside GPP play in a great matchup vs. a lefty who has a 47% Fb rate, 91 mph avg exit velo, and 46% hard contact rate against. Sign me up!

Outfield

Yordan Alvarez FD - OF 3800 DK - OF 4900
Opponent - BAL (Jorge López) Park - BAL
FD - 16.32 DK - 12.17

When looking at the outfield, the first thing that stands out takes us back to the Astros who are the top projected offense on this slate and almost a full run ahead of the next team. Despite a slight dip in the power numbers recently(2 HR since mid-May), Alvarez has been very consistent hitting over .300 on the season with a .372 wOBA and 143 wRC+ and hits cleanup in the most dangerous offense in baseball. Confirmed, he should be over $5K on DraftKings. Buy low while you still can!

Andrew Vaughn FD - 1B 2200 DK - OF 3200
Opponent - PIT (Tyler Anderson) Park - PIT
FD - 8.47 DK - 6.43
Adam Engel FD - OF 2400 DK - OF 3300
Opponent - PIT (Tyler Anderson) Park - PIT
FD - 9.86 DK - 7.6

Any time the White Sox face a lefty they have my full attention as they are a Top 3 team in the split. With some of the top bats(Anderson, Abreu, Moncada) struggling a bit lately, I am drawn to the PTS/$ value and it starts with Vaughn who leads the White Sox in wOBA(.486), wRC+(216), and ISO(.387) vs. lefties and comes very cheap on both sites making it much easier to swallow if he is hitting down in the six-hole.

For Engel, he got a late start to the season due to a hamstring injury but is heating up with hits in six straight games that he has started and more good news as he has been hitting in the two-hole for about a week now. If back there again tonight vs. the lefty, he will be a top PTS/$ play in the system and in play in all formats.

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