(AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
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TPC River Highlands
Par 70 - 6,841 Yards
Greens - Bent/Poa
After another incredible Major Championship that went right down to the wire, it was Jon Rahm taking home the hardware for his first Major win. Outside of Tiger who is just on his own level in terms of Torrey Pines, there is not another golfer with closer ties to the venue. Not only did Rahm pick up his first career win here back in 2015, but he also proposed to his wife here and now won a U.S. Open here. Adding to it is the karma surrounding Rahm after holding a six-stroke lead after round 3 at the Memorial but having to WD due to a Covid test. All in all, it was a spectacular week and we now move on and prepare for the upcoming and final major of the season, the OPEN Championship.
Before we get ahead of ourselves, the PGA Tour heads to TPC River Highlands for the Travelers Championship this week. Considering the event is following a major, we have a fairly strong field including five of the Top 10(DJ, Bryson, Cantlay, Brooks, Reed) and 24 of the Top 50 players in the world teeing it up this week.
This week will most definitely be playing differently than the U.S. Open that played very tough with a winning score of -6 while the Travelers Championship winner has averaged -16 over the last five years. It shows in the stats as TPC River Highlands has seen an average driving accuracy close to 70% and the average GIR rate over 70% when looking at the last five years. When breaking down ball striking, which is always at the top of my core stats, SG: Approach will be heavily weighted this week as it has had almost double the correlation of Off the Tee stats. With the course also being a Par 70, that means there are only two Par 5's which puts Par 4 Scoring a close second in terms of key stats this week and that also leads us into the final piece that is Birdie or Better %. The Top 25 finishers have averaged between 17 and 20 birdies in each of the last five events.
With all that said, let's get into the picks!
Paul Casey
World Golf Ranking (#20)
Vegas Odds (18/1)
Draftkings ($9,900)
FanDuel ($11,600)
There is definitely a high probability of Casey being 20-30% owned in GPP formats this week but it has a "fade at your own risk" kind of feel. I say that as he has not only been playing great lately but also has near-elite course history as well. Let's start with the form as he is coming off a T7 at the U.S. Open and T4 at the PGA Championship and has six Top 10 finishes in his last 10 PGA events. He now returns to TPC River Highlands where he has finished runner-up twice(2015, 218) and has four Top 5 finishes in seven trips(worst finish T32). He provides us with a high floor and upside at a price under $10K on DraftKings. I will have exposure in all formats.
Abraham Ancer
World Golf Ranking (#23)
Vegas Odds (28/1)
Draftkings ($9,100)
FanDuel ($11,000)
As you can tell, I love a more balanced approach this week and it starts with two players who are always favorites when playing a Pete Dye course. That is right Ancer ranks #1 in SG: Tee to Green in this field over the last 24 rounds on Pete Dye courses and right ahead of Paul Casey who is #2. Ancer is coming off a miss cut at the U.S. Open last week but I am not at all concerned seeing as he posted a Top 26 finish in nine previous events. He also gained 5.2 strokes on approach last week and is 7th in this field in that stat over the last 24 rounds. To top it off he returns to the Travelers following a T8 and T11 in his last two trips. He is my favorite PTS/$ play this week and in play in all formats.
Brian Harman
World Golf Ranking (#47)
Vegas Odds (25/1)
Draftkings ($8,800)
FanDuel ($11,100)
I am back on Harman again this week after a T19 at the U.S. Open. He is back up in his normal price range this week but like Casey and Ancer above, he has been terrific on Pete Dye setups rankings 5th in this field in SG: Tee to Green over the last 24 rounds(via FNGC). The tight fairways and thick rough fit his mold, as well, as he is 11th in fairways gained, 4th in Proximity from 200+, and 4th in SG: Around theGreen. A perfect arsenal for someone who isn't long off the tee and considering his form, history, and success on Pete Dye tracks he is inside my Top 5 overall ranks for this week.
Keegan Bradley
World Golf Ranking (#75)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($7,900)
FanDuel ($10,500)
I am not quite sure what people will do with Keegan this week. On one hand, he missed both his last cut overall and last cut here at the Travelers but on the other hand he is an elite ball-striker with excellent course history and is sub $8K on DraftKings. This has me learning core play and before that missed cut at the Memorial, he had tallied seven straight finishes of T30 or better. Looking at my custom model on FNGC, he ranks Top 30 in almost every stat I am looking at including 4th tee to green, 10th in Approach, 15th in Par 4 scoring. At these prices, he is in play in all formats.
Kyle Stanley
World Golf Ranking (#173)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
Draftkings ($7,000)
FanDuel ($9,700)
When first digging at the value section each week I look at the odds to price differential and Kyle Stanley jumped off the page at a price of 7100 and odds of 100/1 which are the best of any golfer under 7300 on DK. While he has been terrible around and on the green, the ball striking has kept him in events and he comes into this week having made four straight cuts(T42, T8, T36, T39). Not only do I like the floor here but if he can putt at all there is a ton fo upside considering he is 11th in this field in opportunities gained over the last 24 rounds.
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