DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 6/18/21

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Pitchers

Trevor Bauer FD - P 10500 DK - SP 10600
Opponent - ARI (Caleb Smith) Park - ARI
FD - 44.03 DK - 24.18

Looking at the top-tier pitchers tonight, both Rodon and Burnes have better xFIP's and K rates but it's Bauer who I like the most tonight and it really comes down to matchup. He gets to face a D-backs team that has dropped 14 straight while averaging just 3.5 runs per game and in terms of wRC+ they are 18% worse against right-handed pitching. All things considered, Bauer is my top payup at pitcher on this slate.

José Berríos FD - P 9000 DK - SP 8500
Opponent - TEX (Mike Foltynewicz) Park - TEX
FD - 31.97 DK - 17.33

With the other top-priced pitchers in either tough matchups(Rodon vs. HOU) or terrible pitching environments(Burnes in Coors) my choice at SP2 is pretty easy here with Jose Berrios. The Twins are early -160 favorites against a bottom-five offense in the Rangers that has been even worse lately losing 16 of their last 19 games while averaging a league-low 3.5 runs per game during that stretch. For Berrios, he has been very consistent all season with a 3.49 ERA/.340 xFIP and has held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts. All things considered, Berrios is my top pitcher on this slate.

Catcher/First Base

Jared Walsh FD - 1B 3600 DK - 1B 5500
Opponent - DET (Jose Urena) Park - LAA
FD - 11.87 DK - 8.9

The decision to release Pujols was in large part to Walsh needing more playing time at first. While the average(.254) has been lower than expected since Pujols departure, Walsh does have nine home runs and 25 RBI in that time. What I like best here is the elite matchup against Jose Urena(5.16 ERA/4.98 xFIP) and had given up a .306 average and .356 wOBA to lefties. Fire up Walsh in all formats.

Daniel Vogelbach FD - 1B 3700 DK - 1B 4500
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 11.44 DK - 8.46

For value at first base, it is hard to ignore the price on Vogelbach as the Brewers continue their series in Coors Field. What stands out more than the park factor is the fact he has been red hot in June with hits in 10 of his last 12 games including four doubles and four home runs. I have a feeling if he does anything Thursday/Friday he will hit $5K on the weekend so buy low now. I will have exposure in all formats.

Second Base

Marcus Semien FD - 2B 3800 DK - 2B/SS 5000
Opponent - BAL (Bruce Zimmermann) Park - BAL
FD - 11.27 DK - 8.54

Semien is quickly proving to be one of the best free-agent acquisitions from this past off-season. With George springer spending most of the season on IL so far, Semien has been hitting lead-off and been very consistent with a .378 wOBA/140 wRC+ and has provided a ton of upside with 16 home runs and a .237 ISO. He gets an above-average matchup vs lefty Bruce Zimmerman and is my favorite play at second base tonight in all formats.

Also Consider: Jonathan Villar(NYM) who has been hitting leading for the Mets who have been hot the last two weeks(115 wRC+) or Chris Taylor(LAD) who is projected to hit in the two-hole against a lefty tonight

Shortstop

Bo Bichette FD - SS 4100 DK - SS 5800
Opponent - BAL (Bruce Zimmermann) Park - BAL
FD - 12.8 DK - 9.82

I am definitely pulling the homer card tonight with the Jays and while they are expensive, I think we can target a few in cash games without sacrificing too much in terms of pitching. Bichette is reaching the peak of his pricing on both sites but is still cheaper than Vlad(for good reason) but makes a nice correlation play with Semien to get the top of the lineup. He is most definitely delivering for the high price with hits in 14 of 15 games in June with a .416 wOBA and 166 wRC+. The final piece of the puzzle are the splits as he has crushed lefties to the tune of a .410 wOBA and 162 wRC+.

Tim Anderson FD - SS 3500 DK - SS 4500
Opponent - HOU (Luis Garcia) Park - HOU
FD - 11.03 DK - 8.58

The matchup is only average here for the White Sox making them a secondary team for me in terms of stacking but Anderson stands out a great play here. First of all, his price has dramatically dropped, especially on DraftKings, where it is sitting at a season-low level making him a tremendous but low. On top of that, he has been terrific lately with hits in 11 of 14 games in June with eight multi-hit efforts. From a PTS/$ perspective, he not only one of my favorite shortstops but one of my favorite overall plays on this huge slate.

Third Base

Justin Turner FD 3500 DK 5200
Opponent - ARI (Caleb Smith) Park - ARI
FD - 13.21 DK - 9.98

With constant injuries to the Dodgers big bats this season, Turner has been arguably the teams MVP through 68 games keeping the team inside the Top 3 offenses in the league. He also comes in hot with hits in five of his last six games including three multi-hit efforts and three long balls. He has been slightly better vs. righty pitching this season but still great vs. lefties with a .378 wOBA, 145 wRC+, and .276 ISO. He is my top play at third in all formats and is still affordable in cash on both sites.

Ke'Bryan Hayes FD 3300 DK 4300
Opponent - CLE (Jean Carlos Meji­a) Park - CLE
FD - 9.88 DK - 7.58

If you are looking for some value at the position, Hayes is still very affordable on both sites and has looked great since his return to the lineup. Since being activated on June 3, Hayes has picked up hits in 11 of 12 games with three doubles, a  triple, and two home runs. The Pirates are not a team I am targeting for a team stack tonight but Hayes is still a bit of a buy-low and a nice one-off in cash games.

Outfield

Justin Upton FD 3400 DK 4100
Opponent - DET (Jose Urena) Park - DET
FD - 13.48 DK - 10.05

In the outfield, I am going to attack some value here and it starts with Justin Upton who has been hitting leadoff for the Angels since late May. In that time(22 games), he has hit .310 with an elite .425 wOBA and 174 wRC+ and while he has been much better vs. lefties, he is still league average vs. righties and in a plus matchup tonight. At these prices, he will be a core play for me in the outfield.

Nelson Cruz FD 3800 DK 5500
Opponent - TEX (Mike Foltynewicz) Park - TEX
FD - 11.97 DK - 8.96
Trevor Larnach FD 2600 DK 3300
Opponent - TEX (Mike Foltynewicz) Park - TEX
FD - 8.44 DK - 6.51

The Twins are a Top 5 team in terms of implied runs and I realize I have yet to touch on them in the article. Well, I love them in the outfield tonight, and its starts with Nelson Cruz who appears to never really fall off with age. he is striking out about 5-8% less than the previous two seasons and comes into tonight with a .296/.369/.552 slash line after putting up hits in 11 of his last 12 games with four home runs.

If it's value you are after, Trevor Larnach has been solid in his rookie season hitting .260 while posting an elite .374 on-base percentage. he has bounced around the lineup but projected to hit ahead of Cruz in the three-hole tonight making the pair a top cash game two-player stack tonight.

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