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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Monday 5/31/21
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Point Guard
Ja Morant FD - $8200 DK - $8400
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 41.28 DK - 42.78
All of the point guards are expensive today, so we're sort of threading a needle here. Our system leads with Morant for a few reasons. First, he's arguably as important to his offense as Russell Westbrook is. He's also been surprisingly effective against Utah's stout defense, which has arguably resulted in him playing a higher number of minutes per game as well. Hell, he's averaged more fantasy points per game through three contests than Russell Westbrook has. I just don't see a world where I'm submitting my DFS lineups with Ja tonight.
Ben Simmons FD - $8800 DK - $7900
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 43.46 DK - 43.15
Things get a little closer as we try to pinpoint the second point guard we want. I considered Mike Conley, who has maintained his role as the primary distributor even as Donovan Mitchell has eased back into things, but ultimately landed on Simmons. Big Ben is absolutely indispensable to Philly's defensive scheme against Washington's electric back-court, and he's a rebound away from averaging a triple-double for the series so far. He's taken some minutes off in out-of-hand games two and three, but as the Sixers look to close things out I think his role is a little more secure. Given that Vegas has this as just a 7.5 point game, it seems the oddsmakers agree with me.,p>
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal FD - $9600 DK - $9100
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 50.4 DK - 51.89
While we're generally not enamored with running a guy whose team is having a hard time keeping games within twenty points, in this case we'll make an exception. If the Wiz lose this one there is nothing left to rest for, so we expect Beal to be out there for his full 40 minute rotation in game four. He hasn't gotten over the hump against the Sixers yet, but he did pay this price in the only other game where he played his full rotation. Shooting guard is pretty thin, and Beal is a nice pay-up option.
Seth Curry FD - $3700 DK - $4300
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 22.32 DK - 23.2
Curry is one of the very easiest plays on the slate today. He's hit 27 FanDuel points in two of the three games this series, and the ankle soreness didn't stop him from playing 27 very effective minutes in the blowout of game 3. He's punt level prices for a guy with starter production, and a welcome respite from all the tough pricing elsewhere.
If you don't wind up playing Beal, you can consider Dillon Brooks.
Small Forward
Kyle Anderson FD - $6900 DK - $6200
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 36.46 DK - 36.19
Slo-Mo is looking like a pretty easy play from where I'm sitting. It's a position riddled with uncertainty, and Anderson has been a huge part of Memphis' ability to keep it close with Utah so far. His hustle stats are through the roof, averaging an incredible 4 steals in the first three games. While that rate might not continue, he's important enough to the Grizz as a shooter, rebounder, and defender that I only see his minutes and usage increasing if Memphis is going to legitimately compete.
Bojan Bogdanovic FD - $5600 DK - $6100
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 28.23 DK - 30.45
I looked at a few options for the second small forward slot tonight, but landed on Bogdanovic because I just don't see the same floor in some of the other options. He hasn't been a world-beater, but you're comparing him to Rui Hachimura and Danny Green, both of really uncertain roles. Bogdanovic has hit 4x in all three playoff games, and flashed 7x upside in game one (which was admittedly without Mitchell). Still, I trust the security of his role more than the other two cheap small forwards.
Power Forward
Tobias Harris FD - $7900 DK - $7300
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 41.49 DK - 41.79
Harris' price is getting up there on FanDuel, but on DraftKings this is a downright steal. Harris has averged paying 5x+ on his FanDuel price, and that's in spite of playing 54 total minutes across games two and three. That's about 10 minutes less than the full rotation we saw in game one, so if Washington manages to keep this one close Harris is arguably %5-%10 too cheap.
Davis Bertans FD - $3900 DK - $3700
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 21.19 DK - 22.44
Like Curry above, this one looks pretty easy to me. Bertans hopped into the starting lineup for the Wizards, and while it hasn't totally come together just yet one has to believe that Russ and Beal will start finding him for open threes soon enough. And if they don't? You're basically investing the minimum, which helps you pay up for stars at other positions.
Also considered: Jaren Jackson Jr. He hasn't played as many minutes as we'd have liked so far, but he's still a points per minute beast that looks ready to put up a huge game at a moment's notice.
Center
Jonas Valanciunas FD - $8000 DK - $7700
Opponent - UTA
Proj Pts FD - 47.59 DK - 49.29
Valanciunas is yet to break out against the Jazz, and while it's tempting to blame the smothering defense of Rudy Gobert, it's really been foul trouble that's been his greater concern. He's still averaged better than 50% from the field and his rebounding the ball at his normal rates. I'm tempted to run Gobert himself, but I just don't know if you can pencil him in for four blocks a game. Gobert is also the most likely of this group to disappear from the offense completely when his teammates are running hot. It's very close, but ultimately I'm leaning JV here.
Both Joel Embiid and Rudy Gobert are perfectly reasonable plays if salary considerations drive you in those directions. I'd argue Embiid is the riskiest of this group, just on the basis of the Sixers' willingness to rest him thus far.
