Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic, left, of Serbia, looks to pass the ball as Phoenix Suns center Tyson Chandler defends in the second half of an NBA basketball game Thursday, Jan. 26, 2017, in Denver. The Nuggets won 127-120. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
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Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 43.46 DK - 43.15
If Westbrook doesn’t play for the Wizards then it’s hard not to see this game turning into a massive blowout. Heck, it could go that way even if Russ plays just like it did last game. Simmons has been awesome in the first two games of the series, using the quick pace and porous Washington defense to average 14 points, 12 rebounds, 12 assists, and some defensive stats. Even with the minutes getting churned off in the last game because of the blowout he still found a way to pay value. Considering it’s still the best matchup on the slate, it’s hard to fade Simmons here.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 34.49 DK - 36.34
Dragic got the start last game in place of Kendrick Nunn and I’m expecting that to happen this time again in Game 4. It’s an elimination game for the Heat so it’s tough to know where their motivation levels are going to be. But he’s still coming at too cheap a price for the new role. The Heat got blown out last game and Dragic was bad from a shooting perspective, going 3-14 from the field. But the price didn’t move all that much and the opportunity was there. I still think he’s a play and if in the starting lineup again is a pretty easy option here.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 44.8 DK - 46.41
McCollum is still a pretty good deal on both sites, sitting in the $7K range, and is a candidate to continue playing 40+ minutes as he did in the last game of the series. He’s shot really well in this series, hitting 47% of his threes on almost seven attempts per game. He’s always going to play second scoring fiddle to Dame in the offense of course, but he’s also priced accordingly. The rebounding (seven per game) has been a nice addition and I think we can keep rolling with him in cash in this upper-middle tier.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 22.05 DK - 22.75
It wasn’t clear what the Nuggets were going to get out of their guard play in this series, but it’s working out so far. Rivers played 37 minutes Thursday night and took the second-most shots on the team with 14. That included a whopping 10 threes and he knocked down five of them on his way to 21 points. Considering the price is still firmly in the middle tier, we can play him again in cash especially if the minutes are going to stick in this range. We know a weakness the Blazers have is their perimeter defense and Rivers helped expose that some last game.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 40.52 DK - 43.27
He’s only played 33 minutes in each of the last two games but there’s some context there. Game 2 was a blowout and in Game 3 he had some foul trouble leading to more minutes for Aaron Gordon. I think we can go back to Porter Jr. here with the idea that his minutes should be in the upper-30s if all goes correctly. And I still think this is an exploitable matchup against the Blazers.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 26.4 DK - 26.3
What you are hoping for here is a lot of minutes and the Wizards keeping the game close. Because the expensive options are all worth paying up for on this slate, you need to find some cheap options wherever they are. Green played 31 minutes in the first game and finished with 11 points and three defensive stats. It wasn’t as good in the second game though he played nine fewer minutes because of the blowout. I think we have to go with the pricing here at a very thin position, especially onFanDuel.
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 42.61 DK - 42.92
Harris has torched the Washington “defense” in the first two games of this series, putting 37 points in 37 minutes in Game 1 and then following it up with 19 in just 23 minutes for Game 2. Look, like we said for the other Sixers guys, the worry here is those low minutes we saw last game. This one could easily get out of hand early again and that would be a real problem for the fantasy floor on Philly (say that fast times fast). But considering these remain shorter slates, I think it’s a risk you have to take. Washington has no one who really can match up with him in terms of size around the perimeter (Rui isn’t it) and he’s been able to take advantage.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 27.68 DK - 26.66
Power forward remains problematic on these shorter slates, especially on FanDuel where we need to roster two of them. What you like about Covington here are the minutes he should play if the game stays close. He’s like the 5th (or lower) option for this team when they are firing but they do need his defense and versatility. That kept him out there for 39 minutes last game and he was able to grab 11 rebounds and dish four assists. He’s good for some defense stats and did manage nine shots for what it’s worth.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 59.02 DK - 61.55
In terms of spending up, you probably have to prioritize Jokic over Embiid because of the latter’s blowout risk. It’s palatable with some of the other Philly guys because of their prices but not as much with Embiid. Meanwhile, Jokic has been a monster this series, averaging 36 points and 11 rebounds through the first three games. The assists have dropped off from his regular-season numbers and he’s only dished out 11 total, but I do think that’s a number that should tick back up if the series continues. He’s expensive, but this is the place to spend up for sure.
Theoretically, Bam Adebayo (FD $7900 DK $7400) is still a total value on both sites, but especially on DraftKings. That being said, he’s really struggled in this series and is tough to go back to again if the Heat are dead in the water.
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