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Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 41.41 DK - 41.65
Playoff NBA DFS largely amounts to capturing players whose opportunities have changed faster than their prices, and to that end, I present you Jrue Holiday. Jrue played 37.5 minutes in regulation in the Bucks' opener with the Heat, and was phenomenal, posting 21/11/3 line with 3 steals to boot. Those assist numbers can only go up, and while the rebounds should go down, the assists should more than make up the difference. Point guard is relatively thin on value, and taking part of Milwaukee's big three looks like an easy call here.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 27.9 DK - 27.93
Playoff slates are generally lacking in value, so Campazzo might be the best we get on the cheaper end of things. The scrappy Argentinian played 31.5 minutes in the Nuggets' opener, and while he wasn't the focal point of the offense by any means, he did enough to pay these prices with a little bit left over. The Trail Blazers should respond to the Nuggets' game 1 gameplan by sending more help at Jokic, and if they do, it will leave Campazzo and the other Nuggets more room to cook.
Also considered: Damian Lillard, of course, though he's looking a little too rich for my blood considering where you'll likely want to spend up elsewhere.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 41.52 DK - 43.01
CJ was solid in the Blazers' opener, scoring 21 points while chipping in 6 rebounds and 3 assists. The Blazers' starters arguably would have played a little more had this one been a little closer, and the 35 FanDuel points he scored in game one sort of seemed like his floor. The Nuggets are not the same defensive team they were earlier this season, and I think the best of CJ is yet to come in this series.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 27.49 DK - 28.31
DiVicenzo is another member of the early-series Value All-Stars, playing 37 total minutes in the overtime game with Miami. It was obvious that he is a part of the Bucks' extremely tightened rotation, with Connaughton nothing more than an after-thought. He gives the Bucks much-needed spacing and shooting, and his role should maintain as the series progresses.
Also considered: Austin Rivers, if you believe in the minutes.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 52.64 DK - 51.88
Jimmy was in Alpha mode against the Bucks, launching 22 shots in 45 total minutes during the overtime affair. He was abysmal from the field, making just 4 of those 22 shots, but here's the thing: he still almost paid 5x points per dollar on these prices. The Heat are in full "ride or die" mode with Butler for these playoffs, and if he shot anything like his normal averages we'd have been looking at a 6x points per dollar performance.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 41.72 DK - 43.26
As the post-season gets into full swing, one thing that is absolutely critical is monitoring how teams change the way they deploy their players. Yes, we'll often see minutes shift in obvious ways, but there are other changes we need to keep an eye on as well. The game tends to slow down, and buckets become harder to come by. In that atmosphere, shots tend to drift to guys that can create their own buckets. On the Bucks, it seems obvious where those shots are headed. Middleton and Giannis combined for 49 shots on Saturday, and it looked for all the world like that will be the plan going forward. If that's the case, we could see a $9k price tag on Middleton before the series is over.
Also considered: Norman Powell.
Opponent - MIA
Proj Pts FD - 64.1 DK - 66.51
And here's where we need to spend up today. Giannis always feels like he's ready to explode during the regular season, as we'll get tantalized by the occasional 37 minute, 75 fantasy point game. Well, in game one of this series he fulfilled our wildest fantasies, adding both minutes and usage. He played 45 minutes and launched 27 shots (his third highest total on the season), and the Heat really had no answer for his oppressive athleticism. I'm looking to play Giannis everywhere I can afford him.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 24.76 DK - 23.85
Covington was rather quiet in game one, scoring just 17.5 fantasy points in 34 minutes of play. While we're not thrilled with the points, we most certainly are with the opportunity. It's just really hard to imagine a guy who averaged almost 25 fantasy points a game during the season trimming that by 40%, playoffs or not, and as such we are buyers heading into game two. At $4,600, he's just too cheap if he's going to be a mainstay in Portland's tightened rotation.
Also considered: Trevor Ariza.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 48.42 DK - 49.56
Centers are really expensive today, and picking one honestly feels quite difficult. It's pretty close between Bam and Jokic (and his ridiculous game 1 usage), but in a world where I really want to play Giannis, I might need to take some savings at center without going all the way down to Lopez.
Bam is another guy who didn't light it up in game 1, but virtually everything was working against him. He got into foul trouble and shot a terrible 4-15 from the field. And you know what? He still eked out 38.9 FanDuel points. A little bit of positive regression will give him more minutes and more points, and I'm a buyer at this price point.
Also considered: Jokic, if you can afford him.
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