DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Sunday 5/23/21

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Pitchers

Max Fried FD 8500 DK 8600
Opponent - PIT (JT Brubaker) Park - PIT
FD - 35.83 DK - 18.64

Fried enters as a -199 home favorite in this one, the best moneyline odds on the main slate. He's striking out more than 10 batters per nine though the walks remain an issue. Don't let the 5+ ERA fool you, the xFIP is about 1.5 runs lower. And now he gets a bottom-feeding Pirates offense with barely a bat in it. This is a great spot for Fried and we are buying low on him because his BABIP is way too high and his LOB% is way too low.

Freddy Peralta FD - P 9900 DK - SP 10500
Opponent - CIN (Luis Castillo) Park - CIN
FD - 38.37 DK - 21.26

This isn’t a great matchup for Peralta but there isn’t a ton of top-end talent taking the mound on the main slate for Sunday. Peralta might be as close as we get. He’s struck out 14 batters per nine this season good for a 39% K rate which is about as good as it gets in baseball. His 3.26 xFIP isn’t as good as the low 2’s ERA would suggest, but it’s still damn good. He’s a slight favorite against the Reds who have been a very good offense this season. And it’s in a good hitter’s park, but again, in terms of strikeout upside, Peralta is the best bet on the main slate.

Cristian Javier FD - P 9100 DK - SP 9200
Opponent - TEX (Mike Foltynewicz) Park - TEX
FD - 34.76 DK - 18.81

The Rangers are a bottom-third offensive team on the season and are striking out more than 26% of the time as a club. That’s going to have Javier in a good spot in the early games where he opens as a -163 road favorite. On the season, Javier is striking out close to 11 batters per nine and has kept the walks relatively in check. In terms of win expectation, his number is about as good as you’ll find on this slate and the cost isn’t prohibitive. He could be the chalk arm on the main slate.

Jameson Taillon FD - P 6700 DK - SP 8100
Opponent - CHW (Dallas Keuchel) Park - NYY
FD - 30.97 DK - 16.62

Taillon’s 5/3 ERA is, of course, bad. But his xFIP is nearly two runs less this season and he’s been beaten up with some bad luck outings so far this season. The LOB% of 68% is terrible and masks the fact that he’s struck out 11 batters per nine and has a 4.6:1 K:BB ratio. The White Sox are another good offense, but I think we are actually buying very low on Taillon’s peripherals because of the poor start with allowing so many runs.

Catcher/First Base

Luke Voit FD - 1B 2800 DK - 1B 4500
Opponent - CHW (Dallas Keuchel) Park - NYY
FD - 12.86 DK - 9.61

Voit will likely be a very popular play on this early slate based on the price and the matchup. He slotted into the leadoff slot for the Yankees on Saturday and could be there again versus the lefty Keuchel. Voit’s been a strikeout machine this season, but that’s not an issue against Dallas who is striking out batters at a laughably low 12% rate this season. Sure, he’s going for the groundball above all else, but this is just a good spot for Voit in the better side of his platoon.

Josh Bell FD - 1B 3500 DK - 1B 4200
Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - WSH
FD - 12.45 DK - 9.29

He wasn’t in the lineup against the lefty on Saturday, but should be right back in the middle of the order on Sunday against Matt Harvey. Bell won’t return to the previous power numbers he enjoyed two seasons ago, but hitting in the 3-4 slot for Washington against an arm like Harvey still makes him a value play. Bell is K-ing at a 27% rate this season, but that’s mitigated against Harvey who is washed and strikes out batters at a less than 7-per-9 clip.

Second Base

Starlin Castro FD - 2B 2400 DK - 3B 3900
Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - WSH
FD - 10.99 DK - 8.48

Josh Harrison FD - 2B 3000 DK - 2B 3600
Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - WSH
FD - 10.79 DK - 8.32

The Nationals actually have one of the better implied run lines on the day in this matchup against Harvey and both of these guys are 2B eligible. Castro hit cleanup for Washington on Saturday and the Harrison hit seventh, but the latter has gone into the two-hole at times for this team. Harvey brings in a 5.93 ERA which is only a run worse than his terrible xFIP and the Nats have one of the higher implied run lines because of it. Castro doesn’t have a lot of pop, but puts the ball in play more than 75% of the time this season meaning he’ll have a high contact rate in this matchup. The same goes for Harrison who has the ball in play almost 80% of the time and actually has an OPS hovering around .800 for the season.

Shortstop

Trea Turner FD - SS 4000 DK - SS 6200
Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - WSH
FD - 15.13 DK - 11.64

Too many Nationals? Well, that’s what happens when you get to face a guy like Matt Harvey. In a pitcher’s league, Harvey hasn’t been able to take advantage of it in any way and he remains one of the worst arms to get trotted out there every five days. Meanwhile, Turner is among the best fantasy guys in the game. The .916 OPS is elite and he already has 10 home runs and eight stolen bases on the season. If you are going to spend up, and I think you can because of some of the other bats and arms, this is the place to do it.

Francisco Lindor FD - SS 2900 DK - SS 4600
Opponent - MIA (Cody Poteet) Park - MIA
FD - 11.03 DK - 8.38

Well, this certainly hasn’t been the season anyone expected when the Mets signed Lindor in the offseason to the massive contract. He’s been bad and it seems like the whole offense is now hurt. But Lindor is coming very cheap on FanDuel especially and we have to probably at least consider him. The .600 ish OPS is bad, but he’s also had horrible BABIP luck in there. He’s still tough to K and takes a lot of walks. I do think things turn around for him at some point.

Third Base

José Ramírez FD - 3B 4000 DK - 3B 5600
Opponent - MIN (J.A. Happ) Park - CLE
FD - 13.06 DK - 9.82

The wheels have come off for JA Happ who has been about as bad as it gets this season for the Twins. He is rocking a 5.83 xFIP thanks to a 5.09 K/9 rate and is walking more than three batters in that frame. He’s been just terrible and the Indians' top of the order should be in play here. Ramirez is still raking with an OPS over .900 and he’s incredibly tough to put down on strikes at 12%. He already has 12 home runs on the season and is one of the elite hitters in the game.

Gio Urshela FD - 3B 2600 DK - 3B/SS 3700
Opponent - CHW (Dallas Keuchel) Park - NYY
FD - 10.48 DK - 8.03

Urshela has been fine enough this season and has gotten a little more opportunity with the Yankees dealing with some injuries. Even facing a lefty, that doesn’t mean it’s the right split for Urshela who’s been slightly better OPS-wise against righties for his career. But the Yankees are going to have the ball in play a lot against Keuchel whose aforementioned K-rate is about as low as you’ll ever see from a major league pitcher.

Outfield

Juan Soto FD - OF 3900 DK - OF 5800
Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - WSH
FD - 17.06 DK - 12.64

Couldn’t finish the Nat’s stack off without this guy. We’ve been through why Washington should be one of the top stacks on this slate. Though you have to pay up for Turner and Soto, it’s worth it. Soto has the OPS up over .800 and his walking (16%) more than he’s striking out (11%). That’s such an elite number and the power should trail it over the course of the rest of the season.

Aaron Judge FD - OF 3600 DK - OF 5200
Opponent - CHW (Dallas Keuchel) Park - NYY
FD - 13.82 DK - 10.22

Judge is just raking this season and should be more expensive than this. He has cut down on his strikeouts compared to the career numbers and has a .417 wOBA and 171 wRC+ so far. He’s cranked 12 home runs and faces off against Keuchel who is going to pitch to contact here. Judge has close to a 1K OPS for his career against lefties and it coming much too cheap on FanDeul.

If Jordan Luplow (FD $2300 DK $3600) is near the top of the order against the lefty then game on at these prices.

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