Denver Nuggets forward Nikola Jokic, left, of Serbia, looks to pass the ball as Phoenix Suns center Tyson Chandler defends in the second half of an NBA basketball game Thursday, Jan. 26, 2017, in Denver. The Nuggets won 127-120. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
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Opponent - LAC
Proj Pts FD - 55.87 DK - 58.68
There’s a lot to like with these opening series and Saturday is full of action. We are going to focus on a few of the superstars playing and it’s going to be tough getting away from Luka here. Dallas will need him to play a ton if they have hope of advancing through this series against the Clippers and he was actually able to do work against this squad last season in the playoffs. Last year in the bubble against the Clippers he averaged 31 points, 10 rebounds and nine assists for the series while also contributing on the defensive end as well. I think we can assume similar lines for him in this series.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 38.53 DK - 40.18
For the Celtics to hope to make this anything like a series they are going to need a ton of scoring from Kemba. In the play-in game against the Wizards, he took a whopping 24 shots in the win, dropping 29 points when it was all said and done. The Celtics will need all of that and more if they hope to keep pace with the Nets. With Jaylen Brown out of the lineup, Boston is short on scoring options meaning Kemba’s usage should remain high.
If you think the Clippers start bumping up his minutes a little then Patrick Beverley (FD $3700 DK $3300) isn’t a terrible punt play if he’s starting.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 42.61 DK - 44.14
Even with the Blazers playing at mostly full-strength to finish off the season, McCollum was able to find enough scoring in this offense to mostly justify these prices. It’s easier to swallow on FanDuel for sure, but it’s close on DraftKings if you think the minutes get pushed close to 40. Over the last five games, he’s averaging 26 points, five assists and three rebounds which is just about at value on these prices and that was on minutes lower than what we can expect to start this playoff series against the Nuggets.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 32.84 DK - 33.04
Like I said with Kemba Walker, the Celtics are very thin on talent right now and have nearly no one on the bench they can trust to play meaningful playoff minutes. That’s going to mean a ton of run from the starters throughout this series. Smart is coming in the middle tier which is a price point we are going to need to utilize to hope to make balanced lineups on this Saturday slate. The cheap plays are nearly gone once we hit the playoffs. He won’t shoot a lot, but here’s to hoping the minutes trend close to 40 and he can pile together enough of the other pieces of the stat line.
Opponent - MIL
Proj Pts FD - 50.01 DK - 49.29
Expect the Heat to play Butler all of the minutes he can handle in this series. They’ll need him at both ends of the court against the Bucks and we saw Miami get a little looser with their minutes' restrictions on him late season when he played 40 and 36 in back-to-back games. He can provide a fantasy floor that’s solid even in this $8K range because in addition to scoring, the assists and rebounds can also come in bunches. Again, Miami is going to need him to play a lot in this series and he’s priced in that next tier below the superstar grouping.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 40.52 DK - 43.27
The Nuggets finished off the season not playing for all that much, but of course, that’s about to change. With Jamal Murray out of the lineup, and Will Barton still injured, Denver needs as many scoring threats as they can muster. And that’s where Porter comes in. Expect his minutes' workload to be very high here and I wouldn’t be shocked if he leads the team in shots, or at worst was second behind Jokic. He scored 28 or more points in each of the last three games that meant something for the Nuggets, playing big minutes in all of them. He’s solid on the boards as well. Portland is the best matchup on this slate and Porter is underpriced on FanDuel.
I think you can play Norman Powell (FD $6400 DK $5700), especially on DraftKings.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 27.73 DK - 28.16
When things started to heat up late season for the Nuggets, Gordon did start to play a little more, getting up to 30 minutes in the final three games he played that Denver needed to win. He averaged 13 points, five rebounds, and three assists in that stretch while also chipping in some steals as well. I think the minutes will come up a little more here in a good matchup against the Blazers and he’s coming cheap on both sites.
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 22.58 DK - 23.5
The Nets were blowing teams out to close out the season which buzzed off some of Blake’s minutes late. He will be in the starting lineup against the Celtics who do at least trend a little bigger in the frontcourt with Tristan Thompson and Robert William. Blake is coming cheap and if he can play 25-28 minutes then I think double-digit points and 5-6 rebounds are in play. On this slate, where you need to play at least a couple of superstars, that’s probably good enough for him in this price tier.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 60.66 DK - 63.22
If we are spending up, this is the spot. No superstar is more important to his team both in real life and in terms of fantasy scoring than Jokic is to the Nuggets on this slate. They are going to need to play him a lot against the Blazers and we could see him trending towards 40 minutes from here on out. The game didn’t matter against Portland to end the season, and this guy still dropped 21 points on them in just 17 minutes. He closed out his MVP season in style, scoring 29 or more points in six of the last seven games that mattered for Denver. He’s a fantasy beast and is actually too cheap on this slate. In my mind, this is where you start building cash lineups and work the other pieces in around him.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 32.79 DK - 30.53
He’s probable for this game against the Nets after leaving the play-in game because of turf toe. If the Nets have a weakness, it’s keeping opposing bigs off the glass this season. They are one of the worst teams in allowing opponents second-chance points and that’s a great spot to be for Williams. Boston will likely want his rim protection on the court as well for longer stretches. If that’s the case with him starting then he makes a good play on both sites.
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