DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 5/21/21

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB, NBA, PGA, NHL, and NFL optimizers and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

Pitchers

Trevor Bauer FD - P 11800 DK - SP 11900
Opponent - SF (Alex Wood) Park - SF
FD - 44.15 DK - 24.29

First of all, I get the Giants put up a silly 19 runs yesterday but Bauer easily has the best matchup of the top tier starting pitchers tonight. On the season, the Giants actually went into that game sitting at exactly the league average in terms of wRC+(100) but what stands out the most is the 26% K rate on the season(6th most). For Bauer, he has been terrific in his first season with the Dodgers holding opponents to two or fewer earned runs in eight straight and enters the night with a 2.20 ERA/3.08 xFIP and an elite 35% K rate. All things considered, Bauer is my to pitcher in all formats.

Mike Minor FD - P 7600 DK - SP 7500
Opponent - DET (Jose Urena) Park - KC
FD - 30.75 DK - 16.05

To fit Bauer on DraftKings at nearly $12K, we are going to need to find some value and Minor stands out for a couple of reasons. The Royals open as pretty big -150 favorites giving Minor some nice win equity and he has qualified for a win(5+ innings) in five of his last six starts. He has not been consistent at all but is coming off a great start limiting the White Sox to two hits and now gets an elite matchup vs. the Tigers who rank dead last vs. lefties in wOBA(.251), wRC+(58), and K rate(34%). He is my top value SP2 on DraftKings tonight.

Also Consider: Stephen Strasburg(WAS) who is coming off the IL but did throw 75 pitches in his rehab start so there is a chance he goes 90+ pitches and is cheap on DraftKings making for big PTS/$ upside

Catcher/First Base

C.J. Cron FD - 1B 3300 DK - 1B 3800
Opponent - ARI (Riley Smith) Park - COL
FD - 13.27 DK - 10

I am not prioritizing the Rockies at home in Coors as I have in previous seasons with their well-documented struggles but C.J. Cron is one name that jumps off the page. While almost the entire team is overpriced due to the "Coors factor", C.J. Cron has fallen under the radar since his return from the IL. in two games back, he has gone 3 for 7 with a double while hitting cleanup in both games. If back in that spot tonight, he is most definitely a top PTS/$ play that can be used in all formats.

Josh Bell FD - 1B 3500 DK - 1B 3600
Opponent - BAL (Jorge Lopez) Park - WSH
FD - 11.63 DK - 8.68

The Nationals are #2 in implied runs behind the Rockies and I am treating them the same way and looking for the value pieces, for the most part. It makes sense for the Nats as both Soto and Turner have exceeded $6K on DraftKings. Josh Bell is first up and has been hitting third the last few games and has also been heating up with hits in five of his last six games with a double and two home runs. He also gets a plus matchup against Jorge Lopez and while he has pitched a bit better than his 6.35 ERA, he has given up eight runs already. The price is a little steep for cash games on FanDuel but on DraftKings, he is an excellent source of value and one of the top PTS/$ plays on the slate.

Second Base

Ozzie Albies FD - 2B 2900 DK - 2B 5400
Opponent - PIT (Tyler Anderson) Park - ATL
FD - 11.8 DK - 9.02

Playing both sites daily is a ton of work but can definitely pay off as there are some big price discrepancies and Ozzie Albies is one we have discussed at length all season. While one of the most expensive overall bats on DraftKings, he is severely underpriced on FanDuel considering he is hitting cleanup behind Acuna, Ozuna, and Freeman. The matchup against Tyler Anderson is just average but the good news is that Albies is a switch hitter who is much better from the right side. He is my top play at second in all formats on FanDuel.

Kolten Wong FD - 2B 3300 DK - 2B 4500
Opponent - CIN (Jeff Hoffman) Park - CIN
FD - 10.73 DK - 8.27

The Brewers head into Great American Smallpark for a weekend series and despite some offensive struggles stand out as a top value team tonight. It starts with the matchup against Jeff Hoffman who has tallied an ugly 1.50 WHIP, 4.67 ERA, and 4.71 xFIP in his first eight starts with the Reds. For Wong, he is a bit streaky but comes in with multiple hits in three of his last five games and hits leadoff which means a bit more now that former MVP Christian Yelich is back in the lineup. The price is fair on both sites and Wong is in play as a one-off piece for cash games or as a part of a lower owned Brewers stack in GPP formats.

Shortstop

Tim Anderson FD - SS 3500 DK - SS 5600
Opponent - NYY (Jordan Montgomery) Park - NYY
FD - 11.95 DK - 9.29

We have yet to touch on the White Sox who happen to be one of the most potent offenses and top overall teams in the league. Overall, they sit Top 5 in almost all offensive categories, rank 1st in road offense, and 1st against left-handed pitching. It starts with former batting champ Tim Anderson who hits at the top of the lineup and comes in with hits in 15 of his last 18 games including eight multi-hit efforts. The price is rising but there is still tons of value as he is 4th and 6th most expensive on DK/FD. Fire him up in all formats tonight.

Also Consider: Paying up is the name of the game at shortstop so take your pick. After Anderson, I PTS/$ rank them Carlos Corera(HOU), Trea Turner(WAS), Fernando Tatis Jr(SDP)

Third Base

Manny Machado FD - 3B 3400 DK - 3B 4800
Opponent - SEA (Chris Flexen) Park - SD
FD - 12.17 DK - 9.16

The price is back below $5K on DraftKings and he is also outside the Top 10 in pricing at the position on FanDuel. I get the early season struggles(.225 average) but the price isn't going to get much lower so this is more of a buy-low situation on a player in a good matchup. The Padres face Chris Flexen who has won two straight but gave up 15 hits and five earned runs in those wins and enters with an xFIP(4.52) over a run higher than his ERA(3.46) and he has also been slightly worse against right-handed hitters. There is some risk here but I can't ignore the price in this spot.

Yoán Moncada FD - 3B 3100 DK - 3B 4500
Opponent - NYY (Jordan Montgomery) Park - NYY
FD - 9.73 DK - 7.37

Back to the red-hot White Sox offense that has averaged over six runs per game during a stretch that they have won 10 of 13 games. Moncada hits third in the lineup and after a 2020 season of struggles appears back to his 2019 breakout form. He comes into the night hitting .284 but what stands out more are the production numbers as he sits with a .384 wOBA, 139 wRC+, and has 20+ RBI and runs scored. The price is still suppressed relative to performance so buy low while you still can. He is my top play at third base in all formats.

Outfield

Kyle Schwarber FD - OF 3500 DK - OF 4400
Opponent - BAL (Jorge Lopez) Park - WSH
FD - 12.16 DK - 9

I mentioned Josh Bell earlier and talked about targeting Washington value bats and Schwarber is my favorite for multiple reasons. Let's start with the team sitting 2nd in implied runs while Schwarber comes in slightly underpriced given he is hitting cleanup and gets a great matchup. What really stands out against Lopez is that he throws his slightly below-average fastball about 63% of the time while Schwarber is at his best, by far, against the fastball. The average is never going to be there but he has been very productive with a .371 wOBA and 134 wRC+ in the month of May and is in play in all formats for me tonight.

Other outfielders in my player pool include: Randy Arozarena/Manuel Margot(TB) who are priced very fairly, hit at the top of the lineup and get a plus matchup vs. Anthony Kay and the Jays. Trent Grisham(SD) who has been very consistent with hits in nine of his last 10 games and is projected to stay in the leadoff spot.

GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!