DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 5/14/21

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Pitchers

Tyler Glasnow FD - P 10500 DK - SP 10900
Opponent - NYM (David Peterson) Park - TB
FD - 43.89 DK - 24.67

For the second day in a row, there is almost too much pitching on this slate, and while we are splitting hairs Tyler Glasnow is my favorite for a couple of reasons. It starts with the FanDuel price that sticks out like a sore thumb and even with a season-high price on DraftKings he tops my target list. It all comes down to the currency of strikeouts and how the sites are set up. While he has given up three earned runs and four walks in each of his last two starts, he has still given us a 2x return on DraftKings. The only risk here is the matchup against the red-hot Mets but floor/ceiling combination each and every time Glasnow steps on the mound is too much to pass up.

Frankie Montas FD - P 7400 DK - SP 7000
Opponent - MIN (Matt Shoemaker) Park - MIN
FD - 31.4 DK - 16.44

Getting one of those elite pitchers on DraftKings is made much easier with the value on this slate and no one stands out more than Frankie Montas. He hits a season-low price on DraftKings while producing 13 or more DK points in five of his last six games and 20+ in three of them. Two bad starts(6 & 7 ER) have inflated his ERA(5.50) but the good news is that the xFIP(4.18) is over a run better and he also faces a struggling Twins team that has dropped four straight and seven of their last eight games. There are more expensive options with more upside tonight but Montas is my favorite PTS/$ SP2 tonight if you want to upgrade those bats.

Also Consider: Max Scherzer(WSH) on DraftKings as the second most expensive option facing a D-backs team that has been much more productive vs. lefties. For value, I also like Joe Musgrove(SDP) who leads the slate with a 2.35 xFIP and faces a Cards team that has tallied just a 70 wRC+ over the last seven days.

Catcher/First Base

Mike Moustakas FD - 2B 4000 DK - 1B/3B 4400
Opponent - COL (German Marquez) Park - COL
FD - 12.58 DK - 9.43

Moose isn't first base eligible on FanDuel but that's fine as I am much more interested on DraftKings where they seemed to have forgotten to adjust a few players for the Coors series. Hey, maybe they were right as the Reds let us down in a big way last night but we can't ignore the price at a position with some tough payups due to matchups. What Moose lacks in day-to-day consistency he makes up for with power and no better place to showcase it. All things considered, he is one of my top plays at first on DraftKings tonight.

Rhys Hoskins FD - 3300 DK - 4100
Opponent - TOR (Steven Matz) Park - TOR
FD - 12.7 DK - 9.4

This matchup between the Jays and Phillies has a lot of fantasy intrigue and it starts with the Jays current home TD Ballpark which has ranked as the second most favorable hitters park in the league but without the price boosts that Coors sees. One of the players that stands out right away is Rhys Hoskins and while he comes in with a low .234 average, he is somewhat heating up with hits in eight of his last 10 games. What stands out the most are the splits as he has crushed lefties this season to the tune of a .458 wOBA and 190 wRC+ and this goes back throughout his career. At these prices, in a plus matchup and ballpark, Hoskins is my favorite play at the position on both sites.

Second Base

Marcus Semien FD - 5400 DK - 3200
Opponent - PHI (Vince Velasquez) Park - TOR
FD - 13.7 DK - 10.3

This is the start of my and the system's love for the Jays tonight. It makes sense on multiple levels starting with the fact they have been red hot and one of the hottest teams in May scoring an average of 5.8 runs per game and have only played two games at home. That home is still currently TD Ballpark in Dunedin which also ranks as the 2nd best hitters park in the league behind Coors Field. While the price on DraftKings is tough to swallow with Jose Altuve in the same price range but on FanDuel, Semien is $700 cheaper and my favorite play at second in all formats.

Harold Castro FD - DK -
Opponent - CHC (Jake Arrieta) Park - DET
FD - 3100 DK - 2000

If you are looking to completely load up on pitching and/or multiple big bats there are a few punt plays I am considering. Harold Castro is one of them as he checks multiple boxes for me and it starts with his opportunity hitting 2nd in the Tigers lineup and he gets that opportunity with his solid start to the season as he comes in hitting .313 with a .365 on-base percentage. That is more than enough for me at these prices as he allows us to spend up for so much upside elsewhere.

Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts FD - 5900 DK - 3300
Opponent - LAA (Griffin Canning) Park - BOS
FD - 12.4 DK - 9.4

Guess who? Xander is justifiably pushing the $6K mark on DraftKings but is somehow priced as the 8th most expensive shortstop on FanDuel which wouldn't grab my attention so much if he was not arguably the best shortstop in the game. He enters the night with an elite .348/.406/.603 slash line and has the 8th best wRC+(179) of any player in the league. At that price, he is easily the top shortstop on FanDuel tonight in all formats.

Also Consider paying up for Bo Bichette(TOR) hitting second for the Jays who are #1 in implied runs or Trevor Story(COL) who crushes lefties and is at home in Coors. For value and mostly for GPP, I would consider Kyle Farmer(CIN) who comes in with hits in five of his last six games and gets to take hacks in Coors.

Third Base

Cavan Biggio FD - 2B/3B 2400 DK - 3B 3400
Opponent - PHI (Vince Velasquez) Park - TOR
FD - 11.27 DK - 8.42

Finding value becomes so important on these slates with multiple ace pitchers and Biggio is right at the top of the list tonight. The Blue Jays lead all teams in implied runs tonight and Biggio looks like he starting to get his timing back and comes in with hits in six of his last 10 with a pair of doubles last game. While Vince Velasquez has been better as of late allowing just one earned run in each of his last two starts, he has walked five in those starts and has given up six home runs over his last four. At these prices, Biggio is one of my top value plays on the slate in all formats.

Also consider: Alex Bregman(HOU) who has been red-hot(.428 wOBA/185 wRC+ last 7 days), gets a great matchup vs. a lefty, and is the 4th and 6th most expensive player at the position on DK and FD.

Outfield

Teoscar Hernández FD - OF 3300 DK - OF 3800
Opponent - PHI (Vince Velasquez) Park - TOR
FD - 12.77 DK - 9.6

The Jays have been red-hot as a team lately scoring the 2nd most runs and most home runs over the last two weeks and the top four in the lineup have been the driving force. Hernandez gets the pleasure of hitting cleanup and has really come on as of late with four straight multi-hit games and has at least one hit in 12 of his last 14 games. The sites have yet to catch up to his production, especially on DraftKings, putting him as one of my top overall plays on the slate.

Jesse Winker FD - OF 4600 DK - OF 5600
Opponent - COL (German Marquez) Park - COL
FD - 13.03 DK - 9.81

Even with the dud in Coors last night, the system is back on the Reds and it makes sense as they no only get to take hacks in the best hitters park in the majors they are also a top 10 offense on the season. Unlike some of his teammates, Winker did get the Coors bump in price but I am ok with it as he has been red-hot with hits in six straight and 20 of his last 22 games with a whopping 11 multi-hit efforts and also hits at the top of the lineup. All things considered, he is in play in all formats.

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