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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Wednesday, 5/12/21
These Wednesday slates usually tend to be the largest of the week, but we have just six games here for some reason. That's good news for us, though, making things much easier to dissect. We also have many predictable teams in terms of rotations, and that's a blessing after that wild slate on Tuesday. There's a lot to discuss, though, so let's go ahead and get into it.
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Point Guard
Russell Westbrook FD - $12600 DK - $12400
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 54.21 DK - 57.66
These price tags are honestly crazy, but it's equally as crazy to fade Westbrook right now. We say that because he's a triple-double machine, recording one in five straight games. That looks good on the surface, but it's even more absurd when you see that he's got at least 80 DraftKings points in four of those. It doesn't matter what you pay; if you get 80 fantasy points from anyone, you tally up the dough. One of those happened to come against these Hawks, collecting 28 points, 13 rebounds, and 21 assists in that gem. That's really no surprise when you see that Atlanta owns a 25th OPRK against opposing PGs and that Washington is playing without Bradley Beal.
Trae Young FD - $8500 DK - $9100
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 45.75 DK - 48.49
It's hard to understand this pricing. Young is one of the best players in fantasy, and he has one of the best matchups possible here. Let's start by talking about that, with the Wizards playing at the fastest pace in the NBA while surrendering the third-most fantasy points to opposing point guards. That's no surprise when you see that Trae has at least 54 fantasy points in their first two meetings. That's usually the production you'd see from an $11,000 player, and it's crazy that a guy this talented is sitting around $9K on both sites. If you can squeeze these two in with some value plays, you should be ahead of the pack as long as this game stays competitive.
Don't forget about Raul Neto in this game with Beal out.
Shooting Guard
Eric Bledsoe FD - $5900 DK - $6100
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 30.65 DK - 32.22
The Pelicans are a shell of themselves right now, but it's left Bledsoe with a huge role. They're currently missing Brandon Ingram, Zion Williamson, and Steven Adams, leaving Bled as the focal point of the offense. He's proven in the past that he can be just that, and it's led to the best stretch of his season. The former Suns standout has scored at least 26 DraftKings points in eight of his last nine games, generating a 31-point average in that stretch. That's really all you can ask for from a $6K player, and he should continue that with so much usage sitting on the sidelines.
Marcus Smart FD - $5800 DK - $6100
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 32.28 DK - 32.24
We already know that Jaylen Brown will miss this game, and it seems like a strong possibility that Kemba Walker will sit in the second half of a back-to-back set. He's actually sat out in all 10 B2Bs they've had since he returned, and it'd be strange if he played here so close to the end. That means this offense has no ball-handlers left, with Smart likely playing the point. That's fantastic news for a guy that's already been productive recently, averaging 31 DK points per game across his last 28 outings. That looks like the floor with those two out, especially with Cleveland ranked 26th in defensive efficiency ratings.
Tim Hardaway was a recommendation yesterday, and we like him for all the same reasons.
Small Forward
Joe Ingles FD - $6000 DK - $6500
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 31.15 DK - 33.29
Ingles has been running things in Utah recently, and it's easy to understand why. They're trying to figure things out without Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell, leaving Jingles as the primary ball-handler in the starting unit. He's actually been productive all season when starting, averaging 29 fantasy points per game across 31 minutes a night in his 27 starts this year. That is right about what you'd expect from a $6K player, but we believe he can surpass that in a matchup like this. Portland currently ranks 29th in defensive efficiency while owning a 24th OPRK against opposing SFs.
Rui Hachimura FD - $5800 DK - $5300
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 28.23 DK - 28.62
Hachimura can be a frustrating guy to own in season-long formats, but he's a great target in DFS. We say that because he always thrives when Bradley Beal is out. He's actually scored at least 39 fantasy points in three of the last six games that BB has missed, averaging over 30 fantasy points per game. That's a brilliant total from a sub-$6K player, and he actually dropped 26 DraftKings points in this matchup earlier this week. That's far from shocking, with Atlanta ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency ratings, making him a great game-stack pairing with Young and Westbrook.
Joe Harris is $3,700 on FanDuel, which is way too low for him.
Power Forward
James Johnson FD - $4700 DK - $5000
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.68 DK - 25.83
We mentioned earlier how many key pieces are missing for New Orleans, and it's done wonders for Johnson's fantasy value. He's actually started the last three games without them, scoring at least 31 fantasy points in the last two. He's now started in nine games this year, averaging 30 DraftKings points per game. That's pretty much the guy we've seen throughout his career, and it's a wonder why both of these sites are keeping him around $5,000. What makes it even more repulsive is this matchup, with Dallas ranked 16th in defensive efficiency while owning one of the worst frontcourts in the NBA without Kristaps Porzingis.
Dean Wade FD - $5000 DK - $4000
Opponent - BOS
Proj Pts FD - 27.33 DK - 28.1
This guy literally looks like someone in my rec league, but he's got some serious game. In a rare start on Monday, Wade dropped 46 fantasy points across 38 minutes of play. That workload is the most eye-opening part of this, and it looks like he could play heavy minutes again here with Kevin Love, Darius Garland, Larry Nance Jr, and Cedi Osman all nicked up. That leaves a ton of rebounding and usage on the table, and it looks like Wade will be one of the main guys. Facing Boston usually sounds scary, but they own a 22nd OPRK against opposing PFs while ranked 19th in defensive efficiency.
Jae'Sean Tate has been handling the ball a ton for the shorthanded Rockets and remains a good value.
Center
Clint Capela FD - $7600 DK - $8600
Opponent - WAS
Proj Pts FD - 43.66 DK - 43.7
Whenever you get a rebounding monster like this facing the Wizards, you simply can't stay away. They play at the fastest pace in the NBA, and that means more misses than usual. That led to a 22-rebound gem for Capela on Monday, which is far from shocking when you see that he leads the NBA in rebounding. It has also forced the Wizards to surrender the most fantasy points in the NBA to opposing centers, which is truly terrifying against a guy like Capela. The big man has scored at least 31 fantasy points in 49 of his 61 games this season, en route to a 41-point average as well. Just take the guaranteed 15-15 game and go from there.
Willy Hernangomez FD - $5800 DK - $5600
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 26.3 DK - 26.05
This is the final piece to our Pelicans stack, with Willy starting for Steven Adams. He's scored at least 27 fantasy points in eight of his nine starts this year, averaging 31 DK points per game in just 25 minutes a night. That's quite the per-minute production, and it is scary to see what he could do in 30-35 minutes. All of that makes this sub-$6K pricing mind-boggling, and the only real thing holding him back is Jaxson Hayes. It's not like Dallas' defense will slow them down, owning one of the worst center rotations in the NBA.
Andre Drummond's price has been plummeting along with his production but has too much upside to be sitting around $6K.
