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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Tuesday 5/11/21
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Pitchers
Walker Buehler FD - P 10800 DK - SP 9800
Opponent - SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - LAD
FD - 36.46 DK - 20.12
Outside of the one start where Buehler allowed five earned runs, he has been lights out allowing two or fewer earned runs in the other five starts. He has also found that swing and miss stuff lately with eight or more K's in three straight with a 14% swinging-strike rate. Making it better, he gets the best matchup of the top pitchers facing the Mariners who are below average vs. righties, overall, and over the last seven days. All things considered, Buehler is my top pitcher on the slate in all formats.
Pablo López FD - P 8000 DK - SP 8200
Opponent - ARI (Madison Bumgarner) Park - ARI
FD - 30.82 DK - 16.19
This is a very interesting game that is currently set as a pickem and our system has both Lopez and Bumgarner right about the same, as well. I have no problem with either but slightly lean Lopez for a couple of reasons starting with the discounted price and higher projected PTS/$ return. Lopez has also been pitching terrific lately holding opponents to just one earned run over his last four starts with 24 strikeouts. Finally, he faces a struggling D-backs team that has dropped six straight, scoring just 12 runs total. Lopez is my favorite SP2 on DraftKings in all formats and a nice low-owned GPP option on FanDuel.
Also Consider: Brady Singer(KC) as a punt SP2 play on DraftKings under $6k. He gets a great matchup as a -130 favorite, in a game with a 7.5 total facing a Tigers team with an ugly 77 wRC+ on the season
Catcher/First Base
José Abreu FD - 1B 3600 DK - 1B 4700
Opponent - MIN (Kenta Maeda) Park - CHW
FD - 10.77 DK - 8.15
Zack Collins FD - C 2400 DK - C 3400
Opponent - MIN (Kenta Maeda) Park - CHW
FD - 8.12 DK - 5.99
First base is a bit tricky as there are a lot of top options but they are either struggling or in tougher matchups. What stood out to me right away was the fact we are getting the reigning MVP at a discount based on his slow start to the season. The good news is that he appears to be heating up with hits in four of his last five games including doubles in three straight. The matchup is not at the top of my list but Maeda as also been up and down to start the year so I will lean on the side of the discount tonight.
At catcher, we are likely to see Zack Collins in the lineup and while he is hitting just .220, he has provided a lot of value with two home runs, six RBI, and a 121 wRC+. I also love taking the value at catcher and he is at the to of the list if starting.
Marwin Gonzalez FD - 1B 2600 DK - 1B/2B 3400
Opponent - OAK (Chris Bassitt) Park - BOS
FD - 10.74 DK - 8.19
The system was all over Marwin Gonzalez last night when he was announced as the leadoff hitter and while he laid an egg it didn't kill us as he was over 50% owned in cash games. With him projected to hit leadoff again tonight, I hope that dud lowers the ownership a tad as he was swinging a hot bat before last night with hits in seven straight games with four doubles. Either way, he is a top value in the system and I will have exposure in all formats.
Second Base
Jake Cronenworth FD - 1B 3600 DK - 2B 4400
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 10.24 DK - 7.89
The Padres are #1 on the implied run list tonight with a trip to Coors Field as they will finally start their series with the Rockies after getting rained out last night. Machado and Tatis are easily the top targets in terms of raw points projections but come with a price tag reflective of that upside. I love them for GPP formats but for cash, I will be targeting the more affordable bats in the lineup and it starts with Cronenworth who comes in with hits in five straight including three multi-hit efforts. The price is up there on FanDuel for someone hitting in the bottom half of the lineup most nights bit on DraftKings he still comes very affordable in the mid $4K range.
Jed Lowrie FD 2900 DK 4700
Opponent - BOS (Nathan Eovaldi) Park - BOS
FD - 9.33 DK - 7.12
In his third stint with the Athletics, veteran Jed Lowrie is arguably having his best start to a season. Despite his recent struggles, he enters the night hitting .275 with an above-average .378 wOBA/126 wRC+ and has already driven in 22 runs and scored 17. With those recent struggles, he was moved down the lineup but after a week(ish) he was moved back to the two-hole and is projected to hit there again tonight making him a top value on FanDuel under $3K and will be a low-owned GPP play on DraftKings.
Shortstop
Xander Bogaerts FD - SS 3500 DK - SS 5400
Opponent - OAK (Chris Bassitt) Park - BOS
FD - 12.14 DK - 9.19
You guessed it! Xander leads off the shortstop section like almost every single article I have written on my article days. I know the position is loaded at the top but how can we ignore the fact he is the 5th most expensive shortstop on DraftKings and 7th on FanDuel. That is just insane for a few reason starting with the fact he comes in red-hot with hits in eight of his last 10 games including two doubles and four home runs. He also gets a plus matchup vs. Chris Bassitt who has given up multiple earned runs in every game while Xander has really laid it on right-handed pitching to the tune of a .439 wOBA and 183 wRC+. Until the sites adjust his price, he is nearly a lock in all formats daily.
Marcus Semien FD - 2B 3400 DK - 2B 5000
Opponent - ATL (Max Fried) Park - ATL
FD - 11.1 DK - 8.41
With everything I said above, I am pretty sure Bogaerts will take on a lot of ownership at the position so if you are looking for a low-owned pivot, consider Semien in the same price range on both sites. After somewhat of a slow start to the season, he has come on like gangbusters with hits in 15 of his last 16 games with four long balls, 12 RBI, and a .449 wOBA/192 wRC+. He is also back hitting leadoff and gets a plus matchup against a struggling Bryse Wilson(18 hit& 9 ER in 12 IP/3 starts). He can be considered in all formats.
Third Base
Justin Turner FD - 3B 3700 DK - 3B 5500
Opponent - SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - LAD
FD - 9.98 DK - 7.54
Third base is an absolutely loaded position but it is the two at the top of the pricing that stand out the most. Choosing between them comes down to what team you are stacking but as a one-off, I lean Turner here as he comes $200 cheaper than Devers on both sites. While Devers has provided a bit more power, Turner has been more consistent entering the night with a .319 average and .419 wOBA and has been great against lefties with a .381 wOBA and 141 wRC+ since the start of 2019. As the 15th and 23rd most expensive player on DraftKings and FanDuel, Turner is in play in all formats tonight.
Also Consider: Rafael Devers(BOS) as the other top pay-up option, Manny Machado(SD) in Coors Field, or for value the system likes going down to Hunter Dozer(KC)
Outfield
Trent Grisham FD - OF 4000 DK - OF 4300
Opponent - COL (Antonio Senzatela) Park - COL
FD - 13.5 DK - 10.17
Chris Taylor FD - 2B 3500 DK - OF 4400
Opponent - SEA (Yusei Kikuchi) Park - LAD
FD - 8.74 DK - 6.62
In the outfield you can most definitely throw a dart at the top guys and roll with any of thing but for me, at least in cash games, it is all about a balanced approach. I love it even more considering we get these two who hit near the top or in the middle of the lineup on teams that are ranked #1/#2 in implied runs on the slate.
Let's start with Grisham who is coming into his own in his second season with the Padres as he enters the night with a .383 wOBA and 145 wRC+. Not only does he get on base and score runs, he already has six stolen bases and has also showed some power with five home runs. To top it off he gets a matchup in Coors and comes at an excellent price on DraftKings making him a top play in all formats.
I am not as high on Taylor simply as he hits down in the lineup(5-6-7) most nights but that is not enough to get him out of my player pool, especially considering he comes in red-hot with hits in four straight and six of his last seven. He has also destroyed lefties this season going 10 for 31 with three doubles, three home runs, and eight walks(.503 wOBA, 224 wRC+). Despite the batting order, Taylor is in play in all formats for me on DraftKings but with his price on FanDuel, he will be GPP only.
Also Consider: J.D. Martinez or Alex Verdugo for theRed Sox in a plus matchup or
