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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Thursday, 5/6/21
It's rare that we don't have many night games, but that's just what we have here. This slate is actually made up with all day games, starting at 1ET. That means the Los Angeles-Tampa Bay and Miami-Arizona matchups are off the board, with eight games making up the main slate. That means you night owls need to get up a little early and check lineups and weather before submitting lineups. With that in mind, let's get into it!
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Pitchers
Michael Pineda FD - P 8700 DK - SP 7500
Opponent - TEX (Jordan Lyles) Park - MIN
FD - 33.16 DK - 17.28
I truly believe that Pineda has been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball over the last three years, and it's a wonder why he's never received the attention he deserves. Between 2019-20, Pineda pitched to a 3.91 ERA and 1.16 WHIP while generating an 8.8 K/9 rate. His statistics are even more impressive this year, generating a 2.30 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, and 9.0 K/9 rate. That makes it hard to believe that he's priced so reasonably on both sites, especially when you see this tasty matchup. Texas currently ranks 24th in xwOBA and 29th in K rate, boasting one of the worst lineups in baseball.
Nathan Eovaldi FD - P 8600 DK - SP 8400
Opponent - DET (Spencer Turnbull) Park - BOS
FD - 36.91 DK - 19.7
I've never been a huge fan of Eovaldi's game, but he's looked like a different pitcher since the beginning of last season. In fact, Eovaldi has a 3.69 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in that span, striking out 84 batters across 83 innings of action. He's always shown elite velocity, but his spin rate and other pitches are finally coming around. The best part about using him is this matchup, though, with Detroit ranked last in nearly every offensive category. They currently sit 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, xwOBA, and K rate. That means you can use any pitcher against them, especially a hot one like this.
Catcher/First Base
Dominic Smith FD - 1B 2800 DK - OF 4100
Opponent - STL (John Gant) Park - STL
FD - 9.66 DK - 7.32
Dom has made minced meat of righties throughout his career, and we love that the Mets are finally giving this guy the opportunity he deserves. Since 2019, Smith is hitting .283 against right-handers, en route to a .540 SLG and .876 OPS. That's on par with some of the best hitters in baseball, and it always puts him in the heart of this lineup when they face a righty. John Gant is certainly not a worrisome opposition either, posting a horrific 1.56 WHIP so far this year. Smith is playing really well right now, scoring at least 6.0 FanDuel points in four straight fixtures.
Miguel Sanó FD - 1B 2500 DK - 1B 3300
Opponent - TEX (Jordan Lyles) Park - MIN
FD - 10.46 DK - 7.73
Sano just came off the IL on Wednesday, and while he did hit near the bottom of the order, this guy has too much power potential to be this cheap. We're talking about a slugger who has a .491 SLG, .348 wOBA, and .253 ISO for his career. That makes him one of the best power hitters in baseball, and a stint on the IL might be the sort of thing to get him rolling. Getting to face a guy like Jordan Lyles only adds to his intrigue, with the right-hander owning a 7.39 ERA and 1.61 WHIP this year which is right on par with what he did last year.
If you need a catcher, Wilson Ramos has been sneaky good and remains way too cheap.
Second Base
Ozzie Albies FD - 2B 3200 DK - 2B 4700
Opponent - WSH (Jon Lester) Park - WSH
FD - 11.14 DK - 8.53
Albies got off to a plodding start to the season, but he's clearly out of it now. Over his last eight games played, Oz is providing a .375 BA, .429 OBP, .719 SLG, and 1.147 OPS. That's a truly amazing stretch, with Albies amassing five doubles and two homers in that incredible run. What makes him really exciting here is the fact that he gets to face a left-hander. Ozzie is one of those rare switch-hitters who bats better against southpaws, hitting .344 against them since 2019 while posting a .609 SLG and .981 OPS. We're certainly not worried about him facing Jon Lester, whom we'll break down later.
Starlin Castro FD - 2B 2300 DK - 3B 3200
Opponent - ATL (Drew Smyly) Park - WSH
FD - 10.64 DK - 8.21
Castro is never an exciting guy to squeeze into your lineup, but he's quietly had a really consistent career. The worst season for him since 2016 was a year in which he hit .270 while providing a .733 OPS. Many $2,300/$3,400 hitters would give anything to have averages like those, let alone have it as a floor in a five-year span. The thing that's allowed him to be so reliable is the fact that he's crushed left-handers throughout his career. Starlin has a .348 AVG, .539 SLG, and .914 OPS, with the platoon advantage in his favor dating back to 2019. Drew Smyly is not a worrisome matchup either, and we'll discuss that in the next write-up.
Shortstop
Trea Turner FD - SS 3800 DK - SS 5300
Opponent - ATL (Drew Smyly) Park - WSH
FD - 14.02 DK - 10.79
We just mentioned that we're not worried about Smyly McSmyly, so let's talk about that. The southpaw has an 8.05 ERA and 1.53 WHIP this season which is pretty much the guy we saw in 2019, when Drew finished with a 6.24 ERA and 1.59 WHIP. That makes him one of the least reliable pitchers in baseball, and he's likely to struggle with a Top-5 fantasy option like Turner. The speedy shortstop regularly leads the Majors in fantasy points, and he comes into this matchup scorching. In fact, he's got seven runs, three homers, and two steals over his last seven games, generating an OBP just shy of .500 in that stretch. That's going to give Smyly some frownies with Turner hitting from the left side.
Dansby Swanson FD - SS 2400 DK - SS 4100
Opponent - WSH (Jon Lester) Park - WSH
FD - 10.58 DK - 8.03
Swanson had a breakout 2020 season, but a slow start had many wonders if it was legit. He's quieted many of those notions with his recent play, accruing a .371 OBP over his last eight games played. That's the stud we saw last year, with Dansby generating a .345 OBP and .809 OPS. Those aren't necessarily special numbers, but it's all you can ask for from such a cheap player. Almost all of Swanson's success has come against southpaws this year, and that's even less surprising when you see that he bats from the right side.
Third Base
Hunter Dozier FD - 3B 2800 DK - 3B/OF 3500
Opponent - CLE (Triston McKenzie) Park - KC
FD - 9.62 DK - 7.28
This is another guy who's gotten off to a nightmare start this season, but it's made him way too affordable. This is a slugger who can be $4K on both sites when he's rolling, and he's shown some signs of that recently. Over his last four games played, Hunter has three doubles, three homers, and six RBI. That makes him one of the frontrunners for AL Hitter of the Week, and it makes it hard to understand why he remains so cheap. It's not like Triston McKenzie has been some ace we need to avoid either, compiling a 6.27 ERA and 1.71 WHIP so far this season.
Austin Riley FD - 3B 2400 DK - 3B 3900
Opponent - WSH (Jon Lester) Park - WSH
FD - 10.07 DK - 7.6
If you don't already know, Riley will make a career of abusing the ERAs and WHIPs of left handed pitchers. Since his call-up in 2019, Riley has a .533 SLG and .839 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. He's actually struggled against them so far this year, but that probably means that some positive regression is headed his way. We could definitely see it starting here against a guy like Jon Lester. The former Cub has a 1.37 WHIP dating all the way back to 2017 and has traditionally struggled mightily with right-handed hitters.
Outfield
Marcell Ozuna FD - OF 2900 DK - OF 4800
Opponent - WSH (Jon Lester) Park - WSH
FD - 13.01 DK - 9.77
Slow starters are a major theme in this article, and here's yet another one. Ozuna is still hitting below The Mendoza Line, but if the 2020 season is any indicator, he's ready to start going nuts. He finished that All-Star campaign with a .338 BA, .431 OBP, .636 SLG, and 1.067 OPS. He's shown some flashes of returning to that player recently, collecting three homers and nine RBI over his last seven games played. We also don't mind that he has the tasty matchup against Lester, with Ozuna tallying a .463 OBP and .867 OPS against southpaws last year.
Jorge Soler FD - OF 2700 DK - OF 3200
Opponent - CLE (Triston McKenzie) Park - KC
FD - 11.25 DK - 8.38
Soler has proven to be one of the best power hitters in baseball over the last three years, collecting 58 homers and 155 RBI since 2019. He's also got a .340 OBP and .521 SLG in that span, too, generating one of the best ISOs in baseball. That sort of power potential is hard to overlook from someone this cheap, especially the $3,200 price tag on DraftKings. Most guys in that price range are barely getting off the bench, and Soler should be in the heart of this order against a struggling pitcher like McKenzie. Soler always hits better at home, providing a .357 OBP and .888 OPS at Kauffman Stadium since 2019.
Jordan Luplow FD - OF 2500 DK - OF 3700
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 10.51 DK - 7.9
Platoon hitters are always a huge part of these articles, and there might be no better split hitter than this guy. Luplow has killed left-handers throughout his career, and it's hard to understand why these DFS sites don't bump him $1,000 every time he faces a lefty. Since 2019, Luplow has a .417 OBP, .645 SLG, and 1.062 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor. Those are Barry Bonds-like numbers, and he has a 1.349 OPS in 14 career at-bats against Duffy in his career.
