(AP Photo/John Locher)
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Quail Hollow Club
Par 71 - 7,600 Yards
Greens - Bermuda
**Click the image above to see a hole by hole breakdown from PGATour.com**
This week the PGA Tour heads back to Quail Hollow Club for the Wells Fargo Championship for the first time since 2019 after last years event was canceled due to the pandemic. A very strong field including seven of the Top 10 in the World will take on the beast that is Quail Hollow Club. It has ranked Top 10 hardest courses on Tour(including majors) in three straight and four of the last five times it has hosted this event. I say that because in 2017 it was Eagle Point hosting the event while Quail Hollow prepared for the PGA Championship.
The first thing that jumps off the page when looking at the Par 71 setup is the 7,600 yards listed on the scorecard meaning you best be wearing your big boy pants this week if you seek to contend. Looking at the last two Wells Fargo Championships(2019, 2018) only two players who finished Top 10 averaged under 300 yards off the tee, and those who finished Top 5 averaged just over 312 yards off the tee. When breaking down Strokes Gained: Ball Striking, Driving Distance is right up there this week.
Not only do you need to be long off the tee but you better be good with the long irons as well with three of the four Par 3's coming in over 200 yards including the monster 249 yard 6th hole. That leads into some of the hardest Par 4's on Tour with eight over 450 yards, five over 480 yards, and three over 500!! Strokes Gained: Approach is high in my model and going deeper, Proximity from 175-200 and even more on 200+ yard range.
The par 5's are, by far, the easiest on the course and produce about 40% of the total birdies despite there only being three on the course. For this reason, I really concentrate on Par 4 scoring in my model both long-term ad short-term as it is the area with the largest amount of room for players to separate themselves over four days.
With all that said, let's get into the picks.
Bryson DeChambeau
World Golf Ranking (#5)
Vegas Odds (16/1)
Draftkings ($11,000)
FanDuel ($11,900)
There is no way I can't start with Bryson after highlighting driving distance and long irons as key stats in the intro. He is #1 in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Driving Distance on Tour and also ranks 8th and 1st in Proximity from 175-200 & 200+ yards over the last 24 rounds. He is coming off another rough Masters but I am not looking too much into that as he hasn't yet completed that formula but one he has figured out is a course where you can grip it and rip it 300+ yards consistently. At a slight discount from JT on both sites, Bryson is my top play when paying up at the top this week. I also like the 16/1 odds for an outright bet, as well.
Viktor Hovland
World Golf Ranking (#11)
Vegas Odds (22/1)
Draftkings ($9,800)
FanDuel ($11,500)
Hovland has become one of the top young guns of the sport and has also proven to be very consistent as he has made 14 of 15 cuts this season. Of those, he has already captured his second career win at the Mayakoba back in December and has five Top 10's and 10 Top 25 finishes in those 15 events. While he has been just slightly above average in terms of driving distance gained(.7 strokes per round), he has been money with his long irons ranking 9th & 5th in Proximity from 175-200 and 200+ yards over the last 24 rounds(via FNGC). He is also 2nd in Opportunities Gained and 1st in Birdie or Better in the same 24 round sample placing him right near the top of my PTS/$ rankings in the top tier. I will have exposure in all formats.
Stewart Cink
World Golf Ranking (#42)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($7,900)
FanDuel ($9,600)
Cink seems to have found the fountain of youth with his son on the bag as he is coming off his second win of the season at the RBC Heritage and his third straight Top 20 finish. He now returns to the Quail Hollow Club where he has not only made the cut in five straight trips, four of them are Top 25 finishes. He has the distance(33rd in dist gained last 24 rounds), the iron game has been hot(5th in SG: APP), and he comes at a price tag under $8K on DraftKings making him a great play in cash games but I would wait and check out some projected ownership closer to lock as he may be very high owned and worth a leverage pivot in GPP formats.
Lucas Glover
World Golf Ranking (#122)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($7,800)
FanDuel ($9,500)
Let's stick with the old guy theme(no offense should be taken as I am team-old-guy myself) in the mid-range and Glover hits on almost all the same things as Cink. He comes into this week with very solid form having made 11 of his last 14 cuts with two Top 5's and three Top 25 finishes. Looking at the stats over the last 24 rounds, he does rank down in 74th in driving distance gained but is 14th in proximity of 200+ yards and backs it up sitting 23rd in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and 9th in Par 4 Scoring. Then he tops it off with great course history as a former winner(2011) and has made the cut in seven of his last 10 trips. At these prices, he is in play in all formats.
Matt Jones
World Golf Ranking (#54)
Vegas Odds (100/1)
Draftkings ($7,400)
FanDuel ($9,200)
Jones checks almost every single box this week and is the highest-ranked player in my model coming in under $7500 on DraftKings. Looking at the salary to odds differential on my sheet we also see he is still coming at a bit of a value on both sites compared to his outright odds. He enters the week in great form coming off a T26 at the Masters which was only a couple of weeks removed from a huge win at the Honda Classic. He now returns to Quail Hollow where he has made five cuts in seven trips. He is likely chalky in this range but either way is my top PTS/$ in all formats.
Tom Lewis
World Golf Ranking (#110)
Vegas Odds (200/1)
Draftkings ($6,700)
FanDuel ($8,200)
If you are looking to go south of $7K and into the "scrub zone" Tom Lewis stands out in terms of distance off the tee(26th on my sheet) and ball striking(47th on the sheet). This is his fist trip to Quail Hollow so I am not looking for much more than a made cut and the good news is the form has been there lately as he has made five straight cuts and is 25th and 33rd in Proximity from 175-200 and 200+ yards. That is a great recipe around this course putting him in my GPP player pool this week.
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