Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard (0) drives around Utah Jazz guard Raul Neto, left, in the first quarter during an NBA basketball game Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2015, in Salt Lake City. (AP Photo/Rick Bowmer)
This marks the final day of April, which means the NBA season is winding to an end. There are only about two weeks left in the regular season, and there's a lot of games still to be played. That means every slate from here on out will be pretty big, and that should lead to some chaotic nights. We have eight games here, though, and that's a perfect amount for a well-rounded player pool. With that in mind, let's get into it!
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Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 46.71 DK - 49.43
Everyone in DFS circles knows that Dame is struggling right now, but this might be the perfect time to buy the stock when it's at its lowest. I mean, this $8,000 price tag on FanDuel is criminal for someone as talented as Lillard. All you need is 40 fantasy points for him to be a good value, and that's pretty automatic for him. In fact, he's scored at least 33 FanDuel points in 51 of his 57 games played this season, averaging nearly 50 fantasy points per game. To reach 6X value, he needs just 48 FD points, and he's done that 22 times this season. We definitely think he can reach that in a matchup like this, with the Nets ranked 25th in defensive efficiency. He actually had 22 points and nine assists the one time they played earlier this year, and he did that damage despite shooting 5-of-17 from the field.
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 38.94 DK - 40.33
This 21-year-old kid has the capability to be one of the best players in the NBA, and he's shown just why recently. Over his last six games played, Ja is averaging 27 points, 6.0 rebounds, 7.7 assists, and 1.5 steals per game. Those numbers make it hard to believe that he's still hovering around $8K on both sites, and it's clear that he's in full-in takeover mode with Memphis battling for their lives. All of that is terrifying news for an Orlando club that traded away their whole team at the trade deadline, owning a 28th OPRK against opposing point guards this season.
Russell Westbrook is a near guarantee for a triple-double with how he's rolling.
Opponent - CLE
Proj Pts FD - 46.09 DK - 47.46
Beal had a bit of a slow stretch when dealing with an injury a few weeks back, but he looks back to his studly form now. The second-highest scorer in the NBA has scored at least 41 DraftKings points in nine of his last 10 games, averaging nearly 50 fantasy points per game in that span. That's really all you can ask for from a sub-$10K player, especially one who averages 47 fantasy points per game for the season. That's right on par with our projection, and we think that should be his floor in a matchup like this. Cleveland currently ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency, and Beal dropped a 47-spot on them in their one meeting earlier this year.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 37.37 DK - 39.58
With Mike Conley and Donovan Mitchell expected to miss this game, Clarkson should have some crazy usage off the bench. With those two guys off the floor, Clarkson leads the club with a 31 percent usage rate while averaging 1.1 DK points per minute. It's also scary that he's taking over one shot every two minutes those guys are out, firing up shots at will. That means we could be looking at 30-35 minutes, 15-25 shots, and a 30 percent usage rate from a guy who's already averaging 29 DraftKings points per game in a much more limited role. Phoenix is certainly a tough matchup, but this sky-high usage limits any of that risk because of the sheer volume.
If Atlanta is shorthanded again, Lou Williams could be a great value.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 48.88 DK - 50.26
KD has slowly been getting his legs underneath him, and he keeps getting better by the day. In fact, he scored at least 43 DraftKings points in all three games since his return, averaging 54 fantasy points per game in that span. That's the MVP we remember, and it makes it hard to believe that he's sitting around $9K on both sites. That's usually the production of an $11,000 player, and he should continue to play like that with James Harden and Kyrie Irving out of the lineup. That will inevitably boost his usage, and he'll be able to obliterate a Portland team that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency ratings.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 33.44 DK - 35.69
We already talked about how Utah is missing their two primary ball-handlers, and it's actually going to make Jingles their de facto point guard. He's been crushing whenever one of these guys has been out this year, averaging over 31 DraftKings points per game as a starter. He actually had 20 points and 14 assists in the first game without those two last week, and that sort of gem shows just how good he can be in this expanded role. Facing Phoenix is a bit fearful, but Ingles should be handling the ball on nearly every possession and playing 35-40 minutes in one of the most important games of the season for both teams.
Khris Middleton will be one of the best plays out there if Giannis Antetokounmpo is out again.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 42.58 DK - 41.6
It's been a rough season for the superstar big man, but he's finally showing signs of the stud we loved last year. The Brow has actually increased his fantasy production in four straight games, improving each one by exactly 10 fantasy points. That's a strangely consistent improvement, but it led to a 45-point gem in his most recent outing. More importantly, he got his minute total up to 31 minutes in the last two games and could be ready for a full workload here. This dude is usually at least $10K when he sees a full allotment of minutes, and he should be even better with LeBron James off the floor. The matchup is the most majestic part of this play, with Sacramento surrendering 154 points on Wednesday and owning the worst defensive rating in the NBA.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 24.55 DK - 23.61
Oof! RoCo has been struggling mightily for two weeks now, but it's lowered his price way too much. Before his meager seven-game slide, Covington was averaging 32 DraftKings points per game across 33 minutes a night in his previous 23 outings. That's a large sample size of consistency, and he actually has at least 25 fantasy points in three of his last six games despite the lackluster stretch. Getting 25 fantasy points would be enough at this diminished price, but 30-35 fantasy points would be an absolute godsend. The matchup against Brooklyn is beautiful, too, as it'll force RoCo into monster minutes to oppose KD. The one time these clubs played earlier this year, Covington dropped 37 fantasy points in one of his best performances of the year.
Tobias Harris is hovering around $7K on both sites, and that's too cheap for someone of his ability.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 56.09 DK - 57.9
If you want to pay up, Embiid should be your guy. What makes him such a good option is his rock-solid consistency. The big man has scored at least 34 DraftKings points in all but two games this season, one of the highest floors you'll see. That has led to his stupendous 53-point average, and a few recent blowouts have lowered his price a bit too much. The matchup against Atlanta is astounding, too, with the Hawks ranked 24th in defensive efficiency. That's on full display when you see that Joel is averaging 1.63 DK points per minute in his two games against the Hawks this year.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 34.31 DK - 33.71
Big ol' Nurk! This guy is one of my favorite players when he's rolling, and he's doing just that right now. What's gotten him going is the fact that he's finally getting a full workload, playing at least 29 minutes in three of his last five games. That has led to a ridiculous 41-point DK average in that span, an absurd total from a guy sitting around $7K. That's the guy we saw throughout most of the bubble last year, and it's crazy to think that his minutes might rise even more. Getting to face Brooklyn is simply the icing on the cake, with the Nets surrendering the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing centers.
Andre Drummond has the same matchup we mentioned in the AD write-up and has been hitting his stride in LA.
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