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DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Friday 4/30/21
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Pitchers
Gerrit Cole FD - P 12200 DK - SP 10500
Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - NYY
FD - 51.91 DK - 29.12
We have three aces up top tonight but it's Gerrit Cole that stands out as the top play as he checks every box starting with the fact the Yankees are huge -340 favorites. He also comes into tonight with a better ERA(1.71), xFIP(2.07), WHIP(.73), and K rate(42%) than Shane Bieber who is also having a great start to the season. The kicker here for me is that he gets a much better matchup against the Tigers who rank 29th in wRC+(79) on the season while striking out 29% of the time, 31% over the last seven days. Cole is my top pitcher in all formats.
Brady Singer FD - P 8400 DK - SP 7000
Opponent - MIN (Michael Pineda) Park - MIN
FD - 31.11 DK - 15.89
To fit Cole or Bieber no DraftKings without sacrificing a ton of bats we have to take some risks with a value arm. For me, that arm is Brady Singer of the Royals who has massively out-performed this price tag since that dud against to start the year. In three starts since he has allowed just 12 hits and two earned in 18 innings while striking out 20(29%) and walking just three. The matchup may seem a bit scary but the Twins are just league average overall, against righties, and have lost eight of their last 10 games while scoring just 3.6 runs per game. All things considered, Singer is my top PTS/$ value play on DraftKings and paired with Cole leaves you a comfortable average salary of just over $4K.
Also Consider: Andrew Heaney(LAA) as a top value SP2 on DraftKings under $7K and has been great lately allowing just seven hits and three earned runs over his last three starts with 25 strikeouts.
Catcher/First Base
Nate Lowe FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B 3900
Opponent - BOS (Nathan Eovaldi) Park - TEX
FD - 8.89 DK - 6.73
With matchups and some of the prices of the top-tier players, I will be taking a bit more of a value approach to the first base position tonight. It starts with Nate Lowe who has been red-hot lately with hits in five straight and nine of his last 11 games with five multi-hit efforts and he has been a force all season with a .379 wOBA and 151 wRC+. The matchup is an interesting one as it may be the perfect time to catch Eovaldi as he was hot to start the year allowing just four earned run in three starts but has allowed 16 hits and eight earned runs over his last two starts. Either way, the price is right to get Lowe in your lineup in all formats.
Jared Walsh FD - 1B 3200 DK - 1B/OF 4000
Opponent - SEA (Chris Flexen) Park - SEA
FD - 10.96 DK - 8.23
Walsh is a player we have been talking about all season as he is following up his breakout from last season(153 wRC+) with a very solid start to the 2021 campaign. He enters Friday's game with a .412 wOBA and 174 wRC+ and gets a huge opportunity hitting 4th/5th in the lineup behind Trout/Rendon. Teh best part is that his price has steadily dropped from over $5K on DraftKings down into this low $K range making him a great value in all formats.
At catcher, keep an eye on the Yankees starting lineup as Kyle Higashioka will be a lock for me on DraftKings should he start today.
Second Base
DJ LeMahieu FD - 2B 3000 DK - 1B/2B 5400
Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - NYY
FD - 13.04 DK - 10.07
The Yankees are once again the leaders in implied runs(5.4) on this slate and it makes sense as they have heated up with a 129 wRC+ and .231 ISO over the last seven days(both 3rd best in that time). No better place to start with your exposure than at the top of the lineup with LeMahieu who is a two-time batting champ. I am not worried about the slow start(for him) as he is still walking or 12% of the time and only striking out 15% of the time and it shows as his xwOBA is 40 points higher than his wOBA currently. The price is a little high on DraftKings but still doable with all the value but his best value comes on FanDuel at $3K where he will be mega chalk. Lock it in.
David Fletcher FD - 2B 2800 DK - 2B 3100
Opponent - SEA (Chris Flexen) Park - SEA
FD - 9.76 DK - 7.63
If you are looking for value at the position, it is hard to ignore the price and opportunity for David Fletcher despite the unusual start. What I mean by that is Fletcher is normally a fairly patient hitter and has walked over 8% of the time in the last two years but is currently only walking 2.8% of the time. The good news is that he comes in with hits in four straight and s13 of his last 15 games and is still in the leadoff position hitting ahead of Trout, Rendon, and company. At these prices, he is a great PTS/$ play in all formats.
Shortstop
Xander Bogaerts FD 3400 DK 5500
Opponent - TEX (Kohei Arihara) Park - TEX
FD - 11.01 DK - 8.34
Xander has cooled off a bit recently leading to his price being maybe a bit high on DraftKings but that is not the case on FanDuel where he the 9th most expensive shortstop. That is insane for a player who comes into Friday with an elite .386 wOBA and 152 wRC+ and gets a plus matchup vs. Arihara who isn't striking out anyone(14%) and owns a 4.03 ERA/4.86 xFIP and the Rangers own one of the worst bullpens in the league. You are probably going another direction on DraftKings but Xander is a lock for me in all formats on fanDuel tonight.
Gleyber Torres FD 2400 DK 4200
Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - DET
FD - 9.63 DK - 7.25
You knew we were going here, right? The system has been on Torres pretty much all season and while we were a bit early, he is finally heating up coming into tonight with hits in three straight including a double in each and he also has hits in seven of his last nine. The price is just too low on both sites for any player hitting in the top half of the Yankees lineup, especially when they get a plus matchup and lead the slate in implied runs. Lock and load in all formats.
Third Base
Kris Bryant FD - 3B 3800 DK - 3B/OF 4800
Opponent - CIN (Wade Miley) Park - CIN
FD - 10.66 DK - 7.99
The Cubs as a team to stack is GPP only for me but Kris Bryant is a player who is on my radar in all formats. He has really heated up over the last couple of weeks with hits in three straight 10 of his last 11 games with seven extra-base hits(four doubles, three home runs). He has also crushed lefties to start the season and while a small sample size, he has tallied a .440 wOBA, 176 wRC+, and .327 ISO in the split since the start of the 2019 season. He is my top PTS/$ play at the position tonight.
Gio Urshela FD - 3B 2800 DK - 3B 3600
Opponent - DET (Tarik Skubal) Park - NYY
FD - 9.03 DK - 6.92
It feels like I am beating a dead horse here but Gio Urshela continues to be underpriced for a guy hitting in the middle of the Yankees lineup while they lead the slate in implied runs. He let us down yesterday but has hits in four of his last five with two home runs and sits with a .343 wOBA and 125 wrC+ on the season. He and the Yankees also get a plus matchup against a struggling rookie in Tarik Skubal who enters with a 1.58 WHIP, 5.21 ERA and even worst 6.56 xFIP. You know the drill. Lock Urshela in as a top PTS/$ play as a one-off in cash or part of a Yankees GPP stack.
Outfield
Randal Grichuk FD 3200 DK 4300
Opponent - ATL (Drew Smyly) Park - ATL
FD - 10.63 DK - 8.02
In the outfield, I am going to give you a couple of value plays that I will be mixing into my player pool in all formats. It starts with Randal Grichuk who has played a huge role for the Jays with George Springer injured to start the year. He has posted a .357 wOBA, 134 wRC+ after hitting four runs and driving in 16. He started the year hitting near the bottom of the lineup but has made s strong case to remain in the cleanup spot where he has been the last couple of weeks, even with Springer back. If you need even more convincing, Grichul also gets a plus matchup vs. a lefty and has posted a .432 wOBA, 179 wRC+ in the split since the start of last year.
Yadiel Hernandez FD 2400 DK 2900
Opponent - MIA (Pablo Lopez) Park - MIA
FD - 9.31 DK - 7.06
I am not certain Hernandez is still under after picking up multiple hits in three straight games while hitting 2nd for the Nats but we cannot ignore these punt prices given the current opportunity. With Soto still out for a while, that opportunity should continue for Hernandez at least until he cools down and at these prices, he should be in your player pool in all formats.
