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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Thursday, 4/22/21
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Before we get started, I'm not going to write up anyone from the Celtics-76ers game because there is no clarity about who will play, and who will sit. You'll have to pay attention to updates about that game as it approaches, because if the Sixers flip-flop who is playing on the 2nd half of a back to back some value could open up here. The Celtics are totally up in the air, with both Jaylen and Tatum listed as game time decisions. Stay tuned.
Point Guard
Terry Rozier FD - $7800 DK - $8400
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 39.32 DK - 40.83
It's a tough slate from top to bottom, but Rozier is a shining star. He's averaged 54.8 FanDuel points over his last four games, doing his best baby-Westbrook impersonation en route to flirting with a triple-double every game. He's got a nice match-up against a Chicago team that's allowed the 12th most fantasy points to opposing point guards, and in a game with little blowout risk Rozier is a picture-perfect cash game play.
Coby White FD - $5800 DK - $5500
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 28.28 DK - 29.82
I considered a number of guys for this slot, but ultimately landed on White. As a member of the Bulls' starting line-up he's playing 32-33 minute rotations, and Vegas putting this as a 3 point game means he's likely to get his full run. He's handling the ball a ton right now, as evidenced by the 10+ shots and 7+ assists he's logged in each of his last three games. He's under-priced to his current role, and a nice option in all formats.
Also considered: Both Spurs - Murray and White.
Shooting Guard
DeMar DeRozan FD - $7900 DK - $8500
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 39.27 DK - 39.57
A fairly priced player in basically a league average match-up? That's a dream come true on this slate. DeRozan is playing strict 37 minute rotations right now, and what's more, he's running the offense a lot more than you might think on a team with Dejounte Murray and Derrick White on the team. His 7.2 assists per game are a career-high, and it's helping him have a floor like he's never had at any point in his career.
Josh Jackson FD - $5500 DK - $5500
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 30.11 DK - 30.54
So there's simply no safe option that has a lot of upside at shooting guard, but I think you can take a risk on Jackson. He's hit 40+ FanDuel points in two of his last five games, and while he's at risk to lose his minutes in blowouts, the game's 8.5 point spread doesn't necessarily suggest that will be the case. The floor is reasonable if he gets his minutes, and a league-average match-up with the Spurs shouldn't scare us off.
If James Ennis sits, Dwayne Bacon is a high floor value play if he gets the start.
Small Forward
Brandon Ingram FD - $8400 DK - $8700
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 41.4 DK - 42.83
Ingram has ramped back up from injury in a big way, and while his two huge minute games were overtime affairs, he's still playing 36 minute rotations on the regular. It's a true dream spot with the Magic, who have allowed the second most fantasy points a game to opposing small forwards this season. On a slate riddled with uncertainty, Ingram is another great mid-range option.
Patrick Williams FD - $4000 DK - $4300
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 25.35 DK - 25.34
Our system has loved Williams for as long as he's been in the starting lineup, running him again in his last game against Boston. He rewarded us with a typical, balanced 24 FanDuel point line. With 2+ defensive stats in 8 of his last 9 games, he can contribute even when he's not scoring. It's another great match-up with the Hornets, who rank just behind the Magic in terms of fantasy points allowed to small forwards.
Also considered: Keldon Johnson? This slate is rough!
Power Forward
Kristaps Porzingis FD - $8300 DK - $9000
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 44.47 DK - 46.57
The DraftKings price is getting up there, but the FanDuel price is borderline insulting. Porzingis has been ripping off huge double-doubles since returning from injury, and this is a nice match-up against the Lakers' back-up boys. Davis is slated to return for 15 minutes here, but that doesn't scare us off Zinger at these prices whatsoever.
Daniel Theis FD - $4600 DK - $3700
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 27.78 DK - 27.29
Jalen McDaniels FD - $5300 DK - $5600
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 30.84 DK - 30.97
It's hard to feign enthusiasm for either of these plays, but one of them is bound to show up in our cash games today on account of the lack of depth at the position. Both are logging significant minutes as a part of their respective starting line-ups, but I'm not exactly over the moon with the upside. If I had to pick one I'd lean into Theis on account of the cheaper price tag, particularly on DraftKings.
Keep an eye on Jayson Tatum. If he plays and Brown sits he's definitely in play for cash games.
Center
Nikola Vucevic FD - $8800 DK - $10000
Opponent - CHA
Proj Pts FD - 50.85 DK - 53.43
Vuc is close to a must-play on FanDuel, but close to unplayable on DraftKings. The power of price. Vuc has hit 5x points per dollar on this FD price in spite of not even playing his full rotation in any of them, so a game with a 3 point spread is very enticing here. Charlotte is a surprisingly tough match-up for opposing centers, but if you pencil Vuc in for 10% more minutes than he's had during this great stretch more than makes up the difference.
Also considered: Wendell Carter.
