DraftKings and FanDuel MLB Picks for Monday 4/19/21

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Pitchers

Joe Musgrove FD - P 10500 DK - SP 10200
Opponent - MIL (Brandon Woodruff) Park - SD
FD - 37.33 DK - 20.01

It's a short slate on Monday, and with so many games with tight money lines we are in a bit of a bind. If you're looking for electric upside, you don't have to look a lot further than Joe Musgrove. The Padres' burgeoning ace has built upon 2020's break out with a bang, compiling a 1.93 xFIP (and a no-hitter!) through three starts in this young season. Musgrove had big prospect pedigree before being tainted by the Pirates, and appears ready to lean into being an ace in his first season in San Diego. Milwaukee is a fantastic match-up, with the 2nd worst wOBA in the Majors and the 6th highest K rate. Musgrove is a little pricey but should be worth it here.

Dustin May FD - P 9300 DK - SP 9700
Opponent - SEA (Justus Sheffield) Park - SEA
FD - 33.94 DK - 18.22

Speaking of young pitchers realizing their prospect pedigree, I present to you Dustin May. He hasn't been super-efficient thus far this season, but he's combining his characteristically great ground-ball rate with the best strikeout numbers of his career. It's just 10 innings, but the signs have been there in the past, and he doesn't need to be this good in order to justify these prices. The Dodgers are the biggest favorites on the day against a Seattle team with a top 10 strikeout rate, and on a slate like today that might be enough for cash games.

Also considered: Kevin Gausman, if you need some savings.

Catcher/First Base

Brandon Belt FD - 1B 2300 DK - 1B 3400
Opponent - PHI (Chase Anderson) Park - PHI
FD - 9.92 DK - 7.42

People were probably overly enthusiastic about last year's performance from Belt, and they are probably overly pessimistic based on this year's slow start. The truth probably lies somewhere between, with Belt projecting out as a high .700s OPS guy. He's been .080 OPS points better against righties for his career, and Anderson has to be considered below average at this point in his career. It's a reasonable hitters' park as well, and Belt is just so cheap that he helps you pay up for pricier options elsewhere.

Carlos Santana FD - 1B 2600 DK - 1B 4100
Opponent - TB (Josh Fleming) Park - KC
FD - 9.82 DK - 7.31

The luster is understandably off Santana as he enters what is likely the final chapter of his career, but these prices are just ridiculous for a solid match-up against what amounts to the Rays bullpen. The switch-hitting Santana will be batting toward the top of the order from his better side of the plate, and if his BABIP catches up to historical levels he's a steal today.

If you need a catcher: Consider JT Realmuto. There are basically no playable catchers otherwise.

Second Base

David Fletcher FD - 2B 3100 DK - 2B 3700
Opponent - TEX (Kohei Arihara) Park - LAA
FD - 10.88 DK - 8.51

On a day with a lot of league-average pitchers, it's a breath of fresh air to get one that truly sucks. Arihara has shown no ability to miss bats, and while he doesn't walk anyone, that honestly just increases the Angels' DFS upside. Fletcher isn't a power threat, but his .350 projected OBP should be enough to pay these paltry totals in a game where his team has the highest implied total on the slate.

Brandon Lowe FD - 2B 3000 DK - 2B/OF 4500
Opponent - KC (Danny Duffy) Park - KC
FD - 10.89 DK - 8.19

Hoo boy, things get tough in a hurry around here. Lowe flashed an elite approach last season, and as he enters his age 26 season it's easy to dream on what he can become. He's also not too risky to play against a lefty, as he sports a lifetime .799 OPS against fellow southpaws. The real risk here is Duffy. If he's the pitcher he has always been, you're stacking Rays and not worrying too much about the K downside. If he's who he has been so far this season, he could carve the Rays' lineup to pieces. The more I write this, the more I just want to roll with Fletcher.

Shortstop

Didi Gregorius FD - SS 2800 DK - SS 4800
Opponent - SF (Kevin Gausman) Park - PHI
FD - 9.79 DK - 7.44

Gregorius is starting the year by striking out more and walking less than he has in the past - not exactly a ringing endorsement! - but he's also stinging the ball right now with an OPS north of .800. Today he'll take on Kevin Gausman, who is honestly a pretty good pitcher, but today we care more about his handedness than his talent. Didi is almost .100 OPS points better against righties for his career, and I'm happy to roll with him at a pretty shallow position.

Corey Seager FD - SS 3800 DK - SS 5700
Opponent - SEA (Justus Sheffield) Park - SEA
FD - 13.21 DK - 9.97

The 26-year-old Seager is shaping up to be a perennial MVP candidate, and on a night without a lot of great pay-up options in favorable spots, we're open to playing him here even with the platoon against him. While Sheffield is a real prospect, he's now up to 101 MLB innings with a 4.47 xFIP, which portrays him as decidedly below average. Vegas likes the Dodgers to pile up runs, and I see no reason that Seager shouldn't be in the mix.

Third Base

Nolan Arenado FD - 3B 3600 DK - 3B 5100
Opponent - WSH (Joe Ross) Park - WSH
FD - 10.32 DK - 7.78

The 30-year-old Arenado hasn't missed a beat upon moving over to St. Louis, producing almost the exactly triple-slash that he produced year in, year out in Colorado. He certainly prefers hitting against lefties, but you know what he really likes? Hitting against bad pitchers. And right-handed or not, Joe Ross certainly qualifies there. Don't let the early season fool you: Ross is a guy who averaged a 5 xFIP when he was healthy in the two seasons prior, and Arenado should be able to work him here.

Hunter Dozier FD - 3B 2200 DK - 3B/OF 3100
Opponent - TB (Josh Fleming) Park - KC
FD - 9.03 DK - 6.84

So it always feels weird writing up guys with performances this terrible so early in the season, but early-season slumps lead to the best possible prices, so here we are. Dozier is still often batting in the 5th or 6th spot in the Royals lineup, and will have the platoon in his favor at the beginning of this game. He might not reach his BABIP levels of 2019 again, but even if he hits his league averages in terms of BABIP and ISO he should be 25% more expensive. This is just a deep discount play akin to playing Josh Rojas and Daniel Vogelbach yesterday, both of which worked out swimmingly.

Outfield

Mike Trout FD - OF 4600 DK - OF 6000
Opponent - TEX (Kohei Arihara) Park - LAA
FD - 16.65 DK - 12.29

So we're getting one of the best hitters in human history against a guy with 4.3 K/9 so far in his short Major League career? I mean, sure? The price isn't nearly high enough, and Trout could be the highest-owned big money guy on the slate assuming we get even a little cheap value batting high in a lineup somewhere.

Juan Soto FD - OF 4100 DK - OF 5800
Opponent - STL (Jack Flaherty) Park - WSH
FD - 14.39 DK - 10.67

The case for Trout makes itself, but the case for Soto is just a little more difficult. Yes, Soto has abused right-handed pitching for a 1.001 OPS over the course of his career, but Jack Flaherty is a real pitcher. He's off to a slow start this year, though, and his low ground-ball rate (32%) means both a lot of balls in the air and a lot of balls leaving the yard. Soto is absolutely playable against 1a types like Flaherty, and I wouldn't be opposed to running him here.

Jorge Soler FD - OF 2700 DK - OF 3300
Opponent - TB (Josh Fleming) Park - KC
FD - 10.81 DK - 8.06

Soler's price has been on the decline on account of his high strikeout rate which is honestly understandable. There does come a point when a price is too low, though, and unless we think the guy from 2019 is just gone for good I think we can take a chance here. Whether the Rays start Yarbrough or Fleming, Soler will have the platoon advantage in his favor against a guy who struggles to get Ks, and Soler should be in position to justify his prices.

Mike Yastrzemski FD - OF 3000 DK - OF 5200
Opponent - PHI (Chase Anderson) Park - PHI
FD - 10.26 DK - 7.76

Here's a classic case of prices moving way faster than the underlying talent dictates. We're talking about a guy with an .873 OPS for his career with the platoon advantage in his favor against a 33 year-old pitcher who hasn't had a sub 4 xFIP since his rookie year. Look for Yas to get back on track in a big way in this one.

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