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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Sunday, 4/11/21
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Point Guard
Jrue Holiday FD - $8700 DK - $8200
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 44.5 DK - 44.81
It looks like the Bucks will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo again on Sunday leaving a lot of usage and minutes to Jrue Holiday. Milwaukee did the B-team shuffle last game with everyone sitting, but that won’t be the case here on Sunday. Everyone but Giannis looks like they will be back. Holiday has a full-season 22% usage rate, but that number spikes to 28% when Giannis is off the court. And the assets go up dramatically as well. This is a pretty easy spot for Jrue even with the price increase.
Reggie Jackson FD - $5300 DK - $5100
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 28.68 DK - 29.79
Kawhi Leonard is going to miss this game and Patrick Beverley is going to miss extended time with a broken hand. That has and is going to continue to leave an opportunity for Reggie Jackson in this offense. The Clippers have very few players who can create their own shot and RJax is one of them. He started last game when Paul George missed and played 30 minutes, took 14 shots, and dropped 26 points along with seven assists. That game was a blowout and I think 32-33 is more in line in a close one.
Shooting Guard
Paul George FD - $9000 DK - $8400
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 45.81 DK - 47.79
Terance Mann FD - $5100 DK - $4900
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 26.56 DK - 26.67
With Kawhi Leonard already ruled out of this game, the lion’s share of the usage should go to Paul George in this game. On the season, George has a 28% usage rate which is effectively tied with Leonard. But that number for George jumps to 33% when Kawhi sits. PG could take a ton of shots in this this game and the minutes should be up and around 36-37 at least. His run has been cut short of late, but the Clippers have played in some weird games, plus a blowout or two.
Meanwhile, I know he’s coming off the bench, but Mann is another one of the Clippers who’ve had to step it up when guys are sitting out or resting. He’s coming off a monster game last time out playing 36 minutes and going for 16 points, nine assists and three blocks+steals. That game ended up a blowout giving him some extra run, but he’s set to lead the second unit again and has trended towards 30 minutes when one of the big two of Kawhi or George is out of the mix.
Donte Divincenzo (FD $5800 DK $5900) is in the mix as well with Giannis out.
Small Forward
Khris Middleton FD - $7800 DK - $8000
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 41.23 DK - 42.8
Much like Holiday, we need to consider Middleton whenever Giannis sits out. The former leads the team in usage with Antetokounmpo off the court at a whopping 31% and the rebounds tend to tick up as well. Even at less than 100%, the Bucks are still favorites to blowout the woeful Magic so there is some concern there. But there’s is just such a high floor on these two guys, plus Portis below that we can stack the Bucks on a shorter slate and feel good about the payoffs across the board.
Patrick Williams FD - $4500 DK - $4400
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 24.13 DK - 24.24
There’s not a lot to like about small forward on Sunday, especially not on FanDuel. Williams isn’t the first, second, third or even fourth option for the Bulls on offense, but he has been playing minutes over 30 in the short term with the team a little weaker on the wing after the trade deadline. He needs to pitch in defensive stats to get there on this price, but luckily he’s been able to do that by averaging almost two steals a game over the last couple of weeks. Not an exciting play, but he’s cheap and we can spend up elsewhere.
Power Forward
Domantas Sabonis FD - $9100 DK - $8700
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 44.39 DK - 46.79
Myles Turner is going to sit this game out which means we are going to get plenty of Sabonis minutes at the five. The Pacers played it a little conservative last game with the starters’ minutes, though Sabonis did run 33. I’m a little concerned they are still taking it easy on some of these guys, but it’s tough to argue with the floor here considering the matchup. He’s averaging 20 points, 11 rebounds and six assists on the season and should see the boards tick up even more with Turner out of the mix. His DraftKings’ price is really attractive.
Bobby Portis FD - $5800 DK - $6300
Opponent - ORL
Proj Pts FD - 31.31 DK - 31.53
I mentioned him before with Middleton, but Portis is the other cash game play from this Bucks team on Sunday. He should draw that start at power forward in place of Giannis and has been known to fill it up from a fantasy perspective when given the opportunity. He gets a 6% usage bump plus 5% bumps in rebounds and assists when Giannis is off the court this season. The price has come up some, but not enough on Portis here. Again, we are slightly worried about the blowout but have to take the risk on this slate.
Center
Ivica Zubac FD - $4600 DK - $5100
Opponent - DET
Proj Pts FD - 31.47 DK - 32.33
The minutes haven’t been all that robust lately, but like I said with George, some of that is because of recent blowouts for the Clippers. When they were playing in closer games, Zubac was getting up and around 30 minutes or more. And when that was the case he was most-definitely a double-double threat. The FanDuel price is particularly attractive at sub-$5K and the position is a weaker one so I don’t think we are going to want to spend up. Considering some of the upper-middle-tier plays mentioned above, getting out of center on the cheap should be the way to go.
Nikola Vucevic FD - $9600 DK - $9100
Opponent - MIN
Proj Pts FD - 51.92 DK - 54.82
That being said, it could be very tempting to play Vucevic here against the Timberwolves. Since coming over in the trade from the Magic, Vuce has averaged 23 points, 10 rebounds, and four assists with the Bulls while also chipping in some defensive stats as well. The DraftKings price is just too cheap considering the matchup against one of the worst defenses in the league in the Timberwolves.
