Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young (11) is shown against the Orlando Magic in the first half of an NBA basketball game Saturday, Oct. 26, 2019, in Atlanta. (AP Photo/John Bazemore)
Man, this portion of the season is not for the faint of heart. You better be zoned in on everything going on in the NBA because strange things are happening every night. We have a handful of teams in full-on take mode and just as many teams missing their whole starting lineups due to injury. We definitely have a few of those instances here, so let's go ahead and talk about it!
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Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 43 DK - 45.6
We absolutely love this pricing with Trae. He's been a $10K player at times in the past, and a dud in his most recent game has lowered this tag a little too far. Before that dud, Young had at least 47 DraftKings points in five of his previous six games. That's way too much from a player sitting around $9K on each site, especially when you see that Trae has 60-70-point upside as well. We believe he can reach that upside in this spectacular matchup, with the Pelicans ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and 27th in points allowed. They're also surrendering the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing point guards as well and are missing about half of their roster.
Opponent - CHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.8 DK - 30.75
McConnell is a solid play no matter what, but with Domantas Sabonis and Malcolm Brogdon both questionable, he could be the best per-dollar play on the board. If you look at the 14 games that T.J. has played at least 29 minutes, he's averaging nearly 40 fantasy points per game. That's far from a surprise when you see his stat-stuffing ability, and he's guaranteed to play 30-35 minutes if Brogdon sits yet again. He's been rolling recently anyway, scoring at least 26 fantasy points in four straight outings. We love that against a Chicago team that ranks eighth in pace and 21st in defensive efficiency. He's killed them this year, too, averaging over 30 DK points per game in two meetings with the Bulls.
Ja Morant is sitting around $7K on both sites and has way too much upside to be that cheap.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 22.65 DK - 22.7
The Pistons season is pretty much over at this point, and it's time to see what they have in a youngster like Jackson. They've proven that he's going to be a bigger piece by starting him in each of the last four games. He's been particularly productive in the last three, averaging just shy of 30 fantasy points per game. That's a ridiculous total from someone this cheap, and he's proven in the past that he can be productive if he gets the minutes. What adds to his intrigue here is that this is the second half of a back-to-back set. That could force many of these guys to sit in what's become a meaningless game, and we have to believe J-Jax will get minutes whether this game is a blowout or not.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 31.09 DK - 31.06
Smart's not the sort of guy that will provide a monster fantasy game, but he's too good to be this cheap. We say that because he's got at least 23 DraftKings points in 11-straight games, averaging over 30 fantasy points per game in that stretch, Those 23 fantasy points at this price are a 4X floor while that 30-point average is north of 5X value. Those are amazing averages from a sub-$6K player, and he should be hungry against a rival like the Sixers. In his two games against them this season, Smart has at least 37 DraftKings points both them and has played huge minutes in both.
C.J. McCollum is one of the best plays according to our projection system.
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 47.79 DK - 47.14
Butler has quietly had an amazing season since his return from injury, flirting with triple-double averages on a nightly basis. In fact, he's averaging 22.3 points, 8.0 rebounds, 7.7 assists, and 1.9 steals since the beginning of February. That equates to a 48-point average on DK, which is too high for a player sitting in this price range. What adds to his intrigue here is this great matchup, with Memphis owning a 27th OPRK against opposing small forwards this season.
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 30.12 DK - 31.28
I was disappointed that Bogey was relegated to bench duties at the beginning of his Atlanta tenure, but they've wised up recently. The thing that's opened up the door for him is the injuries to De'Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish, and John Collins. That's a lot of wings out of the rotation and forced Bogety into six-straight starts and a 37-minute average over his last four fixtures. He's been amazing in those four games, too, scoring at least 45 fantasy points in three of them en route to a 43-point average. That makes it hard to believe that he's only $6,200 on DraftKings, especially in such a tasty matchup. The Pelicans own that terrible defense when mentioned in the Young write-up and surrender the third-most fantasy points to opposing SFs.
Kawhi Leonard should be able to handle a terrible Trail Blazers defense.
Opponent - ATL
Proj Pts FD - 32.11 DK - 30.66
We mentioned earlier how shorthanded the Pelicans are, and it's allowed Johnson to have his best stretch in years. He's started in each of the last three games, and with Zion Williamson, Steven Adams, Brandon Ingram, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Josh Hart all beat up, he should continue to see huge minutes. In those three starts, JJ has scored at least 28 DraftKings points in all of them, averaging 37 fantasy points per game in that span. That's obviously impossible to fade from a player sitting below $6K, especially when you see that Atlanta ranks 24th in defensive efficiency.
Opponent - DEN
Proj Pts FD - 22.96 DK - 22.28
We already talked about how Detroit is rebuilding, and it's really beneficial to a guy like Stewart. The big man actually started on Monday, providing 29 DraftKings points across 22 minutes of action. That 22-minute total appears to be on the low end, too, with the 19-year-old playing more than that in the previous five outings. The status of Mason Plumlee only adds to his value, and if he's out again, Isaiah is one of the best plays on the board. All of this makes it hard to believe that he's hovering around $4K and he should have no problem continuing that success against a defensively inept center like Nikola Jokic.
Jerami Grant gets a revenge game against his former team and could be in play below $7K.
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 39.85 DK - 38.49
This dude is amazing, and he's going to be a Top-40 pick in season-long drafts next season as long as he keeps this role. Trading Daniel Theis and benching Tristan Thompson has really opened things up for Rob-Will. In the five games since becoming a starter, he's scored at least 32 fantasy points in all of them while averaging over 42 DK points per game. That's a stupendous total from a $7K player, and it's really no surprise when you see that he's averaging 1.4 DK points per minute for the season. A matchup against Philly might look tough on the surface, but it'll likely force him into even more playing time to oppose Joel Embiid.
Opponent - LAL
Proj Pts FD - 34.79 DK - 33.67
Toronto happens to be one of the teams that's really beat-up, and it's finally forced Nick Nurse's hand. We have been waiting for Boucher to start all year, and he's gotten the nod in the last two games. The reason for that is because Kyle Lowry and Fred VanVleet are both out of the lineup. That's two of the best playmakers on this roster, and they've had to lean on Boucher much more recently. If you look at the 26 games that Boucher has played at least 24 minutes, he's averaging 39 DraftKings points per game. We obviously can't overlook that from a player sitting below $6K, and this Lakers defense is a shell of itself with Anthony Davis and LeBron James sidelined.
If you have the salary, Nikola Jokic is obviously a great play.
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