Los Angeles Dodgers' Mookie Betts lines out with the bases loaded on a pitch from Colorado Rockies reliever Daniel Bard to end the baseball game Thursday, April 1, 2021, in Denver. The Rockies won 8-5. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
We've got a full day of Saturday baseball. Let's take a look at plays for FanDuel and DraftKings for the entire day.
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Opponent - ARI (Caleb Smith) Park - SD
FD - 37.07 DK - 19.98
Joe Musgrove makes his move to the Padres this season and has a chance to put together a very strong year. He’s coming off a shortened 2020 campaign that saw him dial up the strikeout rate well beyond anything he’d done in previous years. It will be interesting to see if it can maintain after he began mixing in the curveball much more than in past seasons. He comes in as a -192 home favorite against the Diamondbacks on Saturday and is in an excellent spot which is a little short on pitching aces. Musgrove isn’t in that category yet, but he could be primed for a breakout season if he can maintain the strikeout numbers.
Opponent - TEX (Kohei Arihara) Park - KC
FD - 31.47 DK - 15.84
Mike Minor is one of the bigger money line favorites on the earlier slate of games at -160 against the Rangers. Texas doesn’t bring a whole lot of pop in the lineup and Minor should have plenty of chances to dial up some K’s here. He spiked his K rate in 2020 to 9.85 per nine, the best of his career, and was able to average more than five innings per start. The floor should be higher at these prices on both sites and, as I said before, it’s just an overall weaker day of pitching.
Lance Lynn (FD $9800 DK $9200) is a solid option against the Angels on Saturday. The latter don’t strike out as a team all that much, but Lynn is coming off the best season of his career in 2020.
Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - COL
FD - 18.77 DK - 13.99
Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - COL
FD - 15.61 DK - 11.5
We are going to be stacking Coors again with the Dodgers for the evening slate of games. It’s been the plan for the first couple of days and there’s no reason to stop her on Saturday. This game has, by far, the highest run line of the day opening at 11.5 with LA at -221 favorites. That’s a lot of implied runs (6.75) and much more than any other expectation. You will have to pay for it with guys like Bellinger and Muncy (and the other guys we’ll get to shortly) but that’s where an arm like Joe Musgrove comes in. You can save a little with pitching leaving a bit more room for the bats.
Opponent - TEX (Kohei Arihara) Park - KC
FD - 11.73 DK - 8.74
Santana is hitting in the middle of the Royals’ order against Kohei Arihara who comes over from Japan and is making his first major league start. The Royals have one of the higher run lines of the day and while Santana struggled OPS-wise last season, the patience was still there. He walked almost 19% of the time, taking more free passes than strikeouts. That approach gives him a higher floor in cash games and there’s some chance the power returns this season.
Opponent - PHI (Zack Wheeler) Park - PHI
FD - 11.21 DK - 8.58
Albies should be hitting second in the Braves’ order on Saturday when they face the Phillies and Zack Wheeler. He only played 29 games last season, but in 2019 the top prospect hit to the tune of an .850 OPS and popped 24 home runs. He had back-to-back 24 home run seasons and is fully healthy this year. It’s a great spot against a pitcher in Wheeler who brings in a very low K rate. That was Albies’ issue last season but isn’t a concern in this matchup.
Opponent - ARI (Caleb Smith) Park - SD
FD - 9.79 DK - 7.54
Caleb Smith has been a walk machine ever since getting into the majors and has averaged close to four free passes per nine over his first three seasons. It’s a reverse platoon for Cronenworth but he is coming very cheap in this matchup and should be in a spot for the Padres to put up some runs. His splits against lefties were less than ideal last year, but we can get out of a weaker position on the cheap by going this direction.
Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - COL
FD - 17.4 DK - 13.13
It’s going to be a broken record with these Dodgers guys, but it’s just too good of a spot to pass them up on the evening slate. Seager put together his best campaign since 2015 last season finishing with a .943 OPS thanks to 15 home runs and a minuscule 15% strikeout rate. He’s among the best offensive shortstops in the game and hitting in the two-hole behind Betts. This is just the perfect cash play for the evening slate.
Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - BOS
FD - 14.22 DK - 10.77
The Red Sox are in a great spot early against Matt Harvey and the Orioles. Harvey stinks and has for some time with an xFIP in the mid-5’s over the last two seasons and something like that as an average over the last four. He’s been striking out fewer than eight batters per nine for some time now and Boston could light him up in this game. Xander has averaged around a .900 OPS over the last three seasons and is two seasons removed from a 33 home run campaign. The price is steep on DK but is fair on FanDuel.
Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - COL
FD - 15.67 DK - 11.83
Yeah, I know, more Dodgers. But again we have to go this route with the full stack on Saturday evening. Turner is coming off a big Friday night against the Rockies in which they tuned it up in Coors. We could be looking at more of the same against Jon Gray who was flat-out terrible in 2020, cratering his K rate to five per nine and getting the xFIP up to an awful 5.68 in 39 innings. He’s not that bad mind you, but this is still a fastball first pitcher going in Coors.
Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - BOS
FD - 15.12 DK - 11.45
We mentioned Bogaerts being in a great spot against Matt Harvey and the same case applies to Devers here. He struggled some last season but still had the OPS up and around .800 after a .916 OPS season in 2020. It will be interesting to see if the power returns this time around for a guy who had a few too many swings and misses last season. But against Matt Harvey, who doesn’t have much in the *stuff* department, we can safely stack Red Sox, especially the more K-prone guys. It’s just too good of a matchup.
Opponent - COL (Jon Gray) Park - COL
FD - 19.2 DK - 14.46
Okay, I’m done after this I swear. I will say, if you are going to prioritize Dodgers on this Saturday slate, because you can’t play them all then you need to basically start with Betts. Sure, he’s the most expensive of the bunch, but it’s for good reason. He’s very tough to strikeout (13% for his career) and has close to 4K plate appearances of a .900 OPS. He can swipe bags, hit for power and is just one of the best fantasy guys around. Sure, it costs but this is the target for cash games no doubt.
Consider AJ Pollock (FD $3300 DK $4600) right along with him.
Opponent - BAL (Matt Harvey) Park - BOS
FD - 13.23 DK - 10.19
Verdugo should be in the leadoff spot for the Red Sox against Matt Harvey and hasn’t totally been price corrected for this slot in the Boston lineup. Coming over in the Betts trade, the guy has big shoes to fill and has been mostly okay from a fantasy perspective in the first few seasons with an .800 OPS and a lower 16% K rate. There is some pop in the bat with 18 home runs over his last 600 plate appearances and Boston is expecting the 24-year-old to make some strides this season. Let’s have it start here against Matt Harvey.
J.D. Martinez (FD $3600 DK $4600) is still coming at a fair price on both sites as well.
Opponent - ARI (Caleb Smith) Park - SD
FD - 12.49 DK - 9.47
If he’s hitting near the top of the lineup against the lefty then I really like Pham at these prices. He hit leadoff on Friday against the righty and you’d think he’d be no lower than second against Smith on Saturday. For his career, Pham has been very good against lefties with a .385 wOBA and 145 wRC+ in that split. He walks 17% of the time against southpaws and has an OPS pushing up to .900. He’s coming way, way too cheap on DraftKings on Saturday.
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