San Antonio Spurs guard DeMar DeRozan (10) and guard Dejounte Murray (5) during the second half of an NBA basketball game against the Atlanta Hawks in San Antonio, Friday, Jan. 17, 2020. Atlanta won 121-120. (AP Photo/Eric Gay)
To be honest, Tuesday's schedule sucked. We had just four games in total, and most of them were stinkers. That has us motivated to have a big night here, and there's plenty to pick from with 10 games on the docket. It also looks like we could have a lot of close games, with Brooklyn being the only double-digit favorite out there. There's a lot to discuss, though, so let's get into it!
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Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 36.14 DK - 38.16
Lowry has had some stinkers recently, but this $6,300 price tag on FanDuel is laughable. This guy has played at a $7K level for most of the season and has had stretches where he's more like an 8-9K player. We say that because he's averaging 38 fantasy points per game for the season, which is right on par with our projections. That alone is 6X value over on FanDuel, and it's even 5X value on DraftKings. We really like him today because of this matchup, though, with Oklahoma City putting out a G-League lineup. That should allow the Raptors to play a competitive game for once, especially with OKC ranked 18th in total defense.
Opponent - PHO
Proj Pts FD - 27.23 DK - 27.92
Sato is risky right now with Nikola Vucevic swallowing up so many touches now, but this price tag is silly. He's actually usurped Coby White on the depth chart, starting at point guard for the last few weeks. The Czech guard has scored at least 18 DK points in all nine starts he's made, averaging 26 fantasy points per game in that span. That's a 4X floor and a 6X average, making it hard to believe he's just $4,500 on both sites. While Vooch's presence is worrisome, it sounds like Zach LaVine or Coby White could be out here. If that's the case, Sato's role will increase even more, with very little backcourt depth left after these three.
Damian Lillard has fallen below $10K on both sites and can easily drop 50 fantasy points.
Opponent - SAC
Proj Pts FD - 41.13 DK - 41.4
DeRozan has quietly had an All-Star season for the Spurs, likely getting them into the playoffs. The star wing is leading San Antonio with 39 fantasy points per game, scoring at least 30 DK points in all but a handful of games this season. What's really improved is his stat-stuffing abilities, averaging 20.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 7.4 assists per game. That assist total is obviously a career-best mark, and he's taken on a lot more ball-handling duties with LaMarcus Aldridge out of the picture. We haven't even discussed the best part of this play which happens to be the matchup. Sacramento currently owns the worst defensive rating in the NBA and regularly allows the opponents best player to go off on a nightly basis.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 33.48 DK - 34.13
Why does Haliburton remain so cheap? He struggled really bad in his return to action a few weeks back, but that's clearly the outlier in what's been a stellar rookie season. In fact, he averaged 30 DK points per game before that injury and has a 31-point average over his last five fixtures. That makes it hard to believe he continues to sit around $6K, especially with his insertion into the starting lineup. The icing on the cake is the matchup, with San Antonio owning a 24th OPRK against opposing SGs this year. In their last meeting, Hali provided 15 points and 10 assists en route to a 40-point gem on DraftKings!
James Harden should have another monster game against his former team.
Opponent - IND
Proj Pts FD - 47.92 DK - 47.38
It's a bit brash to consider Butler as an MVP candidate, but his numbers over the last month have been absolutely ridiculous. Since returning from injury on January 30, Jimmy Buckets is averaging 22.8 points, 8.2 rebounds, 7.7 assists, and 1.8 steals per game. That's an incredible 26-game stretch, and it's no surprise that he's taken on so much ball-handling with this team struggling. That run has actually allowed him to score at least 42 fantasy points in 21 of those 26 games, which is a truly incredible floor from a $9K player. Indiana sounds like a tough matchup on the surface, but the Pacers currently rank 21st in points allowed. In their two meetings this season, Jimmy is averaging over 43 DK points per game if you needed any more incentive.
Opponent - BKN
Proj Pts FD - 31.88 DK - 32.62
The Rockets are a terrible team, but they appear to have found something with this Porter kid. He was a throwaway for the Cavaliers with some off-the-court issues, but he's come in and been one of Houston's best players. In fact, he's averaging over 30 fantasy points per game and should see his role increase with Victor Oladipo out of the picture. He's actually one of the team leaders with a 26 percent usage rate for the season, and he's one of the few guys who won't get pulled no matter what this game may look like. We say that because we could be looking at a blowout, but that shouldn't affect KPJ's minutes at all. The Nets defense is nothing to worry about, though, ranked 26th in points allowed and 25th in defensive efficiency.
Bojan Bogdanovic has been terrible, but his price is getting way too low below $5K and they could be without Donovan Mitchell.
Opponent - POR
Proj Pts FD - 40.93 DK - 41.73
Grant has had some ugly games recently, but this pricing is getting a little out of control. We're still talking about a guy who's posting a 37-point average for the season, which is more indicative of an $8K player. The reason we believe he'll return to that form here is this spectacular matchup. Portland currently ranks 27th in points allowed and 29th in defensive efficiency while surrendering the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing power forwards. So, while the recent form of Grant may scare some away, let's bank on that low ownership and trust this sensational matchup instead.
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 30.26 DK - 30.98
It's weird to say this, but Barnes has had a really nice season for the Kings. The former Golden State power forward is averaging a career-best 31.1 DK points per game, doing more ball-handling than ever before. What's crazy is that he remains around $6K on both sites, and it's hard to understand why. A few recent duds might be the main reason, but he's matching that 31-point average over his last 16 games anyway. The matchup is pretty marvelous, too, with San Antonio owning a 25th OPRK against opposing power forwards this year. This is not the sort of play that will excite you but picking a guy with a 5X average is always a profitable endeavor.
If the Houston-Brooklyn game becomes a blowout, Nicolas Claxton could get some extra run and have a huge game.
Opponent - TOR
Proj Pts FD - 36.25 DK - 36.5
This kid is amazing. He showed some flashes of brilliance when he was backing up Al Horford, but now that Big Al is out for the rest of the season, Moses is a stud. Over his last five games played, Moses is averaging 38 fantasy points per game. That absurd total doesn't even include a 51-point gem from a few weeks back, and it's crazy that he's averaging 12.6 points, 15.2 rebounds, 1.2 steals, and 1.6 blocks per game in that span too. That absurd rebounding rate should continue with Darius Bazley out as well, especially with Toronto having a terrible center rotation.
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 38.16 DK - 35.28
Williams is nicknamed The Time Lord, and rightfully so. He earned that nickname with his absurd per-minute averages, providing 23.5 DK points per game in just 18 minutes a night for the season. That's obviously one of the best rates in the NBA, and he's been posting some gems with his minutes slowly creeping up. He's playing a lot more because Daniel Theis has been shipped to Chicago, and Tristan Thompson is still sidelined. That has allowed Williams to play nearly 29 minutes a game over his last three figures, averaging 37 fantasy points per game in that span. It's not like Dallas is a scary matchup either, with the Mavericks ranked 23rd in defensive efficiency while being extremely weak at center.
Nerlens Noel has recaptured starting center duties in New York and is being priced like a back-up.
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