Minnesota Timberwolves center Karl-Anthony Towns (32) in the first half during a preseason NBA basketball game against the Phoenix Suns, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2019, in Phoenix. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)
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Hello, DFSR faithful (and new readers)! This is going to be a slightly different article than usual, because this is a very different slate than we've become accustomed to. Saturday featured perhaps the craziest night of injuries in DFS history, with an unprecedented number of late injuries to players of all calibers.
As such, many of these players are questionable tonight, and any attempt to write a regular picks article is likely to be worthless by the time lineups finally lock. Instead, we're going to take a look at the key information you need to keep an eye out for tonight, and how you should be prepared to proceed if certain news comes out.
There are a handful of under-priced Pacers that you can play if incredible value doesn't open up elsewhere. We've got a close eye on Caris LeVert and Malcolm Brogdon in particular. The Wizards pair a bottom-five defense with the league's fastest PACE, and It will be tough to go wrong running Pacers out there almost no matter what happens elsewhere.
On the Washington side, you'll need to keep an eye on Bradley Beal's status. He left Saturday's game early, and Garrison Mathews saw 31 minutes as a result. I'm not super bullish on Mathews necessarily, but Russell Westbrook would be in line for huge usage if Beal were to miss this one.
The main news to keep an eye on here concerns the point guards of both teams. Both Kemba Walker and Lonzo Ball are currently listed as questionable, but they are in very different situations. It's believed that Walker missed Saturday's game due to rest, and it's likely he'll play here. It's a nice match-up with the Pelicans, but no Celtics are really jumping off the page here. There's also the possibility of Evan Fournier making his debut, which would further complicate things.
Ball, on the other hand, pulled himself from Thursday's practice and wound up missing his last game, and I'd guess he's closer to a 30% chance to play here. If he winds up sitting, that gives Nickeil Alexander-Walker a bunch of extra minutes, and spreads Ball's time on ball throughout the team as well. If Ball returns, however, we're viewing the Pelicans as mostly a stay-away.
Brooklyn has been a revolving door of guys playing and sitting, but thankfully we already have a little news about their plans here. Kyrie Irving plans to play, which takes the immense burden of running the entire offense off of James Harden's shoulders. The prices of the ancillary pieces has crept upward, and the only one our system is giving serious consideration is Nic Claxton coming off the bench. If LaMarcus Aldridge makes his debut, however, I don't think you'll want any piece of the Nets' bench until they settle into their new rotations.
Minnesota is a great match-up, though, ranking in the top five in pace and bottom five in terms of defense, and I could see running either Kyrie or Harden here.
On the Minnesota side, our system can see running Karl-Anthony Towns if you think the Wolves can hang. The Nets can't defend the center position, and their old buy-out guys aren't really going to help matters.
Here's a messy one. We'll start with Miami, where Nemanja Bjelica is slated to make his debut and take an unknown number of minutes from other Miami bigs. Kendrick Nunn and Victor Oladipo have been ruled out, but Goran Dragic is back, further confusing matters in the back-court. We'll be taking a wait-and-see approach trying to take a look at who is available and starting for the Heat tonight.
On the Knicks' side, Mitchell Robinson is out and Julius Randle is questionable. It goes without saying that this leaves a huge number of minutes available for guys like Taj Gibson and Nerlens Noel, both of whom would have been great DFS plays on Saturday. Derrick Rose returned on Saturday, but it didn't stop Alec Burks from playing more than 40 minutes and being a DFS stud himself. There will be value on the Knicks side today, so pay close attention to this one.
This game is a little saner than most but isn't without its share of intrigue. The primary piece of news here surrounds Jerami Grant, who left Saturday's game with a left quad contusion. If he winds up sitting, this game simultaneously becomes a lot more of a blowout risk and one with more value on the Detroit side, but you're admittedly probably only going to want to run Pistons in big tournaments. Right now Grant is listed as probable, though, so this scenario may not come to life.
As for Toronto, they should be at full strength and ready to roll over the lousy Pistons, but the blow-out risk makes them more tenuous cash game plays.
This game doesn't feature a lot of great value if both teams are at full strength, but keep an eye on Christian Wood's status. If he were to sit, Kelly Olynyk would get the start and be a solid DFS option in any format.
Where do we even begin on the Dallas side here? Both Luka and Porzingis are listed as questionable, which means we could be in for a value fiesta featuring plays like Jalen Brunson, Boban Marjanovic, and Tim Hardaway Jr.. Luka has a non-Covid related illness, so I'd guess he's more likely to play than Porzingis tonight.
OKC offers its own cup of crazy. With Horford shut down, SGA out, and Lugentz Dort in the concussion protocol, the Thunder find themselves incredibly short-handed. This could offer a DFS boon if Dallas' stars miss this one, as we'd get two G-League squads trading buckets and filling stat sheets. In such a game I'd be excited to play Moses Brown, but I'm not sure there's a lot of value in these other Thunder players.
There isn't any relevant injury news here as of this writing, but there are some reasonable cash game options from both teams. Tyrese Haliburton, Richaun Holmes, and De'Aaron Fox look playable from the Kings, and Derrick White is a quality point guard option from San Antonio.
There are a number of question marks in this game, but I'm not sure how relevant they'll be for DFS purposes. Jarrett Allen sat on Saturday, opening up 30+ minutes for Brodric Thomas, who ultimately got there on the back of four defensive stats. I'm not sure we can count on him to replicate that production against a much stiffer Jazz team.
As for the Jazz, Mike Conley will likely return for this one, which dings Joe Ingles and Donovan Mitchell.
Vucevic made his Bulls debut on Saturday, which, as predicted, took usage away from other relevant Bulls DFS options. Still, our system sees value in both Lauri Markkanen and Nikola Vucevic here.
On the Warriors side, Jordan Poole remains a high floor cash game option with Curry on the sidelines.
Giannis and the rest of the Bucks' starters sat on Saturday, but it was a planned day of rest, and they should be returning against the Clippers here. Unfortunately, the Clippers are a tough defensive match-up, and any Bucks-related plays just count on this game being close and them getting their full run of minutes.
As we take a look at the Clippers, things look pretty murky. Both Beverley and Ibaka should be out, and Rondo's status is as-yet-unknown. Are we opening up cash-game value, though? Reggie Jackson doesn't really pack a per-minute punch, and Zubac has trouble hitting 25 minutes. Terrance Mann scored 23 points off the bench last game, but did little else, and is hard to recommend as a cash game play.
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