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FanDuel NBA Picks and DraftKings NBA Picks - Saturday, 3/27/21
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This Saturday set of games could prove to be very tricky when it comes to injury news. There are a lot of high-profile guys who are questionable as of this writing. I'll try to walk through some of the scenarios to watch out for and how they will affect the slate.
Point Guard
News we are waiting on
Luka Doncic FD - $10800 DK - $10800
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 1.52 DK - 1.59
Jalen Brunson FD - $4800 DK - $4200
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 34.89 DK - 36.38
If Luka Doncic sits out again then Jalen Brunson (FD 4800 DK 4200) is a strong play again at these price points. I know the returns weren’t all that great on Friday, but I’d be happy to go right back in this direction if he got the start for Dallas. Conversely, if Luka Doncic (FD 10800 DK 10800) plays and is given a full bill of health then he is a good play in this matchup at these prices. This is just one of the many wait-and-see issues we are faced with on Saturday.
If Kawhi Leonard is out again then Reggie Jackson (FD $4800 DK $4700) and/ or Terance Mann (FD $3900 DK $3900) would be interesting in the starting role. Both started last game, but Marcus Morris sat that one out as well.
Tomas Satoransky FD - $4500 DK - $4800
Opponent - SA
Proj Pts FD - 27.97 DK - 28.44
The Bulls are a new-look team now with the addition of Nikola Vucevic and the offense should have even more firepower now. Satoransky has been locked into the starting point guard role for Chicago and playing around 30 minutes when the games right. He’s been good for about 10 points and six assists per game over the last week or so and the assist numbers should be in line to tick up with a more functional offensive big in the mix.
Shooting Guard
Joe Ingles FD - $5400 DK - $5800
Opponent - MEM
Proj Pts FD - 30.05 DK - 31.83
Mike Conley is expected to miss this game due to rest on the back-to-back which should have Joe Ingles once again filling in in the starting role. He’s been excellent in his time taking over for Conley and most recently came off a game in which he played 32 minutes and put up a whopping 34 points and five rebounds. The shooting was completely run hot going 8-10 from three, but the usage does tick up with Conley off the court and this is a good spot against Memphis. The price is up but he’s a good cash game play.
News we are waiting on
Paul George FD - $8300 DK - $8300
Opponent - PHI
Proj Pts FD - 43.94 DK - 46.35
Like I said with the point guards, we are waiting on the Kawhi Leonard injury news. And we might not have it prior to the early main slate lineup lock. If Kawhi is out then Paul George becomes one of the better, high floor options on the slate at these prices. It’s not a great matchup against the Sixers, but the volume uptick for George is real. He has a 33% usage rate with Kawhi off the court this season and is coming off a game in which he chucked up a whopping 28 shots against the Spurs. Here’s to hoping we have this news before 8 PM EST.
Small Forward
Brandon Ingram FD - $8300 DK - $8000
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 48.75 DK - 50.42
Lonzo Ball is going to sit out another game and we’ve seen Ingram and some others benefit from a fantasy perspective with the former out. Ingram struggled on Friday night against Denver, going only 5-17 from the field. But that was still good for the second-most shots on the team and it looks more like run bad than anything else. He’d put up 30+ points in each of the previous two games without Lonzo. I’d look for a return to those scoring numbers in this game against the Spurs.
Jaylen Brown FD - $8000 DK - $8200
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 47.42 DK - 48.8
Kemba Walker is going to sit out the second half of the back-to-back. Brown has a solid 32% usage rate for the Celtics when Kemba sits this season and should see a higher volume of looks once again in this matchup. He’s had an excellent season, scoring 25 points a game on close to 40% shooting from beyond the arc. This matchup against the OKC Thunder, who are without Shai Gilgeous-Alexander shouldn’t provide much in the way of resistance and Brown’s price doesn’t reflect that the Celtics are without Kemba.
Power Forward
Zion Williamson FD - $8400 DK - $8700
Opponent - DAL
Proj Pts FD - 49.64 DK - 49.72
Zion is coming off a monster game and has been really good in the short term without Lonzo Ball. On Friday, against the Nuggets, Zion put up a crushing 39 points and 10 rebounds in the loss to Denver. They are a bottom-third defense on the season and Dallas is slightly worse. Over the last four games, Zion is averaging 31 points and nine rebounds with the minutes trending into the upper-30s as long as the score stays close. I expect that to be the case against Dallas here on Saturday.
News we are waiting on
Kristaps Porzingis FD - $7900 DK - $7900
Opponent - NO
Proj Pts FD - 41.61 DK - 41.78
That would also be about Luka Doncic in regards to Kristaps Porzingis (FD $7900 DK $7900). Now the latter looks like he’s going to play on the second half of the back-to-back with no current injury tag on him. But, he hasn’t really been playing b2bs this season so we are in a total holding pattern. If Luka sits and Staps plays then the latter is an excellent option. If both sit then we could be looking at some punt play value in the starting lineup. We are really going to be on the lookout for what Dallas does here because the news could really swing the whole slate.
Center
Karl-Anthony Towns FD - $9900 DK - $9700
Opponent - HOU
Proj Pts FD - 49.98 DK - 52.6
Towns remains way too cheap on DraftKings at sub-$10K and is going to run back the same matchup that he had on Friday night. Why does the latter matter? Well, he just happened to put up 29 points, 16 rebounds, and eight assists in the win over Houston. He’d have a chance to match up a similar line with the teams running it back. The Rockets have almost no size in their lineup behind Christian Wood and they are being careful with his minutes. This is another lock and load play on DraftKings for KAT who should be a chalk option on that site.
Robert Williams III FD - $5600 DK - $6600
Opponent - OKC
Proj Pts FD - 41.1 DK - 39.55
Time Lord got the start for the Celtics on Friday after they traded away Daniel Theis and had Tristan Thompson on the bench. The team had traded for Mo Wagner and Luke Kornet, but neither played on Friday. Williams made the most of the opportunity with seven points, nine rebounds, six assists, and a crushing seven blocks+steals. It was truly an across-the-box-score line for the guy. I still like the minutes' floor and his ability to contribute across a number of different categories. The two other bigs in the mix could cut the minutes, but I think the floor is high enough.
